FEAR THE FABRE FILLY FORAY

Well what can I say? This weekend of flat racing is just mouthwatering. Saturday's offerings are top quality and then to put the icing and the cherry and the chocolate sprinkles on top of this cake, there's Sunday's card at Longchamp which features what is arguably the best flat race of the year courtesy of the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe. Anyway, we have got Saturday first to pick apart first, where my tips are picked with soft ground in mind as heavy rain is forecast in the afternoon. So without further ado...

We will kickstart with the Newmarket, where the feature race is the Sun Chariot Stakes (3:30). I wrote last week about Andre Fabre's impeccable record with fillies on the Rowley Mile when promoting High Celebrity's chances in the Cheveley Park and although she could only manage third, Fabre's record there still stands. He sends three over for this; one of whom is current favourite Fintry, who is likely to be cherry-ripe for this following her solid victory in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown. However, this is a big step up for the Godolphin owned filly and I think she is worth taking on with Fabre's two other representatives, MISS FRANCE and ESOTERIQUE. Both of these fillies have won on the Rowley Mile this year, which proves that they will be able to deal with the undulations of this unique course. 1000 Guineas winner Miss France last ran in the Prix Rothschild, where she came second behind Esoterique, so their recent form is no worry either. The latter has also ran again since, finishing a not too distant fourth behind three useful colts in the Moulin. Their run in the Rothschild brings Integral into the mix, as she finished a disappointing third at odds on that day. This clearly did not show this year's Falmouth Stakes winner to her full ability and she is sure to put in a better performance this time around although 3/1 could be a little short in this field. Last year's winner Sky Lantern has looked a shadow of her former self this season and would have to up her game if she is to feature here but you would not rule it out. Kiyoshi bounced back to form at Doncaster last time out but she will have to step up on that and the same goes for Hamdan Al Maktoum's Etaab, who narrowly won at hot handicap over course and distance only 8 days ago.

Esoterique (left) and Miss France (right). 

There are also some Tattersalls Millions races at Newmarket today, where as the race name suggests, there is plenty of money on offer. In the 2:20, SECRET BRIEF warrants respect as he goes for his second win in a race under the Tattersalls Millions banner. He showed he was extremely game that day and once he hit the front, he was not for passing. A repeat performance will see him go close. OUTLAW COUNTRY is another interesting contender based on his cosy success at the second time of asking at Leicester. He could be anything in truth but the booking of Pat Smullen as a jockey suggests that he's thought quite highly of by the boys in blue.


The Oh So Sharp Stakes (2:55) was won last year by Miss France but I would be surprised if this year's renewal threw up another 1000 Guineas winner. Yodelling looked a smart filly based on her debut win but it is unknown if she will progress from that run as some Godolphin horses have a tendency to leave their ability in their first run. To me, 5/2 is short enough about her. Local Time has her first run on turf (he three runs so far have all be on a synthetic surface.) so that is an unknown regarding her. Shagah has run to a respectable level so far but is looking a little exposed now and she has only won an average maiden. A horse who could surprise a little is MAJESTIC MANNER. She was very green on debut but followed that up with a nice victory in what was quite a decent Lingfield maiden. If she can step up on that run, she could make her presence felt in this contest. Of the rest, Taaqah could run well but her trainer James Tate's record at the course (0-25) would be enough to put me off her.

The maiden (4:05) is a race that looks full of decent two year olds, as it does every year. The one's with experience dominate the betting and rightly so. Aloft and Archery Peak both ran solid maidens and both looked like they would be winning races soon. However, I'm going to look for one at a bigger price so the selection is RARE RHYTHM. He's the third shortest in the market (at the time of writing) which suggests that he may possess some ability.


Over at Ascot, STEPS would have a great chance in the opener (2:05) if the forecasted rain came but should still run well even if it stayed dry. Listed races seem to be his level so should easily be capable of holding his own. Andrea Atzeni on board is a big plus too. Muthmir could have been running in the Abbaye on Arc day which evidently shows what his connections think of him. He could potentially trounce the opposition but is not a price I would be interested in. Justice Day seems more at home over six furlongs whilst Ladies Are Forever should not be ignored although she too may ideally want six furlongs and would not want the heavens to open.

Another sprint, this time over six furlongs with the Bengough Stakes, is at 3:15. This Group 3 contest looks wide open, with last years winner Tropics heading the market. He's not the most consistent sort however so I'd rather look elsewhere. After quite some time off the track following a failed period at stud, RECKLESS ABANDON seems to be coming back to something like his two year old best, finishing behind the smart filly Mecca's Angel last time out. Kevin Manning looks a positive booking and I'm hopeful that he could go very close here. Another fascinating contender is SIGNS OF BLESSING, who could quite easily have run in Sunday's Abbaye having had close form with Rangali, Catcall and Stepper Point. This implies that his connections must think he has a big chance here. Any rain would do this French raider the world of good. Others with chances include Intibaah, who will need rain but would have to defy a 147 day absence and Ayr Gold Cup winner Louis The Pious, who seemed to have everything fall right for him that day; he may not be so lucky on Saturday. He will want the rain to avoid the Berkshire venue.

The Challenge Cup (3:50) is as competitive as ever, with many having chances. I have managed to whittle the field down to three. HEAVEN'S GUEST, a consistent performer who'd like cut in the ground, MORACHE MUSIC, who needs cut but is a force to be reckoned with if he gets it and SIRIUS PROSPECT, a smart sprinter who could make his presence felt. Blaine will want it firm and the trip is an unknown (although he should cope fine), Prince's Trust recorded a facile victory last time out but this is a different kettle of fish and Almargo is another who will want the rain to stay away.

In short, Ascot's card features very competitive races where the weather will play a pivotal role in the day's goings on.


Redcar host their annual highlight, the 2 Year Old Trophy, on Saturday. Limato is a slightly surprising entry as his form is head and shoulders above the rest although there are bits of value to be found as a result of this. MATTMU has not run a bad race thus far, REALTRA likewise and SEA WOLF could be overpriced if it rains a little.

In the 3:45, it could be siding with horses who have form on softer ground so TAWHID and PENITENT are chosen. Muteela has not ran on ground softer than good to soft, Patentar was well beaten when he ran on it. Cape Factor will welcome the rain but may not be good enough.

Finally, the Redcar maiden at 4:20 should be won by either the once raced Purple Rock or Makfi's brother Muhtadim. But I'm going to oppose the pair with LONE STAR BOY, who is bred to be very speedy being by Starspangledbanner and out of a mare by Compton Place.


Enjoy your Saturday


Happy Punting!

GRADUATE TO MAKE A NOTABLE PERFORMANCE

It seems as though most Sundays feature racing from the Curragh and today is no exception. The highlight of their 8 race card is the Group 2 Beresford Stakes, which Ol' Man River will look to live up to his lofty billing. The selection for this race would have been Order Of St George, as I felt he was overpriced. His maiden victory was very impressive, so much so that he has not shown any less on the racecourse than Ol' Man River. Unfortunately, Order Of St George is a non runner so it seems as though Aidan O'Brien's first string will be tough to beat.

At the Curragh today, NOTABLE GRADUATE (4:05) appears to have a good chance. He won last time out and looks to have the best form on offer in this race and having top amateur Robbie McNamara on board will aid his cause. In the opener (1:55), ASHRAF and CROCODILE ROCK are two unraced horses who could upset the market leaders' applecart in this maiden. Double figured prices about both look a little big. Stellar Glow should win the fillies' G3 but is very short so could be worth opposing with LOLA BEAUX who won nicely last time out. This is quite a weak race for the grade in all honesty.

Robbie McNamara with Dermot Weld. They team up with Notable Graduate

A couple for Epsom...

2:10- Evening Rain and Fieldsman deserve to be the market principals but PASTICCIO should benefit from the drop in trip and there's a possibility that first time blinkers could ignite PIVOT POINT to break his maiden tag with Richard Hughes doing the steering

5:40- AQUA ARDENS is in the form of his life and there seems no reason why he cannot complete the four timer as he still looks fairly weighted. MISTER MUSICMASTER could also figured if replicating his last run.


Enjoy your Sunday


Happy Punting!

CELEBRITY HEADING FOR HIGH PLACES

Although Saturday's big race would appear to be the Cambridgeshire, I like too many in that race and as a result could not decide which horse to make the title of the post. This is why I've made the Cheveley Park Stakes my title race and first race previewed. It is a Group 1 race remember, so it is a very good race.

Andre Fabre usually sends decent sorts over the English Channel, especially on Newmarket's Rowley mile course where he has a 67% strike rate (4-6). These victories include two fillies this year, Miss France and Esoterique and it seems as though he may have brought over another smart filly in HIGH CELEBRITY. She's ran three races to date, two wins in her homeland sandwich a second place in the Cherry Hinton stakes, where she was outdone by an awesome ride by Ryan Moore aboard Arabian Queen. Being by Invincible Spirit, the firmer ground should help her out and she is more likely to know her job this time compared to her previous Newmarket race given she has had another run since. Two "F" words together, Fabre and Fillies, should make anybody sit up and take notice, even the leading two year old filly Tiggy Wiggy.

High Celebrity (right)

It could also be worth having a bit on John Gosden's TENDU, who looked a useful filly based on her Kempton win last time out, whether she is quite good enough to win this is another question. Also keep an eye on Terror. She destroyed the opposition on her sole run to date but they were very average and it is hard to assess how much ability she possesses.

Now for the 35 runner (at the time of writing) Cambridgeshire. I've managed to whittle the field down to 4, by mainly looking at those drawn high (past renewals suggest this is where to look and the result of the Silver Cambridgeshire would imply high is where to head). These are headed by John Gosden's CORNROW, who has won all his three races at the mile trip and arguably would have won last time out if he was running at a mile and not seven furlongs. The trainer does well with these inexperienced types in races like this, namely Gm Hopkins in Friday's Silver Cambridgeshire (who had had one race less). EXTREMITY is the next selection, a horse who has been performing very consistently of late and will look to add another big race victory for a trainer and jockey who have really made their marks this season, Hugo Palmer and Andrea Atzeni. QUEENSBERRY RULES regained the winning thread last time out for a trainer in William Haggas who is flying lately and the last of my quarter is GABRIAL'S KAKA, who is another who has been running very solid races lately, Pat Smullen looks an interesting jockey booking.

2:00 Newmarket- Little stat which might be of interest for this fillies' nursery, the last three winners have all had four runs previous to this so, at a price, RUNNER RUNNER may go well at a massive price. Based on form with Ralph Beckett's Lear's Rock, Runner Runner is better handicapped off 79 than Rosalie Bonheur is off 73. Smullen as a booking looks good too. Another horse who looks hugely overpriced is CONJURING. I watched her come third at Wolverhampton on her second run and backed her last time out when she won but it's plain to see that she needs further than the trips she has been running at lately. She gets seven furlongs so, in my opinion, 33/1 is way too big. Little Lady Katie could be the biggest danger.

2:35 Newmarket- Nafaqa clearly sets the standard here but is of no interest to me at the prices whilst Elm Park would appear to want it softer. The rest look much of a muchness in truth at this grade, perhaps MISTERIOSO is a little interesting based on his comfortable win when breaking his maiden tag at the second time of asking plus his connections of Hannon and Hughes.

5:00 Newmarket- HANA LINA is a half sister to the top class Lady Of The Desert so needs to be respected whilst ALJAFER could run a good race too.

6:05 Newmarket- Based on the fact that he is a half brother to the likes of smart stayers Kirkless and Mastery, it is not hard to see why FAMOUS KID put in a career best performance at Kempton over 11 furlongs last time out. The extra furlong along with Richard Hughes being booked today suggest that this horse has a massive chance.

Here's some more flat selections away from Newmarket...

2:25 Haydock- GALILEANO will come on plenty for her debut run. Sampera is a threat but her trainer's fom is a worry.

3:35 Haydock- EXPOSE is in the form of his life and appears to have a good chance of completing the hat trick whilst ZERO MONEY has been running in races a lot tougher than this recently and on his best form is well handicapped (he is three pounds below his last winning mark)

3:05 Chester- This is a very competitive affair with many having chances. It can often pay to latch onto a Mark Johnston horse who have started winning sequences so POTENT EMBRACE is chosen. Franny Norton riding will aid her cause given his experience of the course. Fire Fighting has a similar profile but has to carry a lot more weight than the opposition today. He has a chance but would have to put in a mighty performance to win this. ROSKILLY could also run well at a price, the first time visors are of interest. Latenightrequest is another with a chance, as is Zugzwang.

3:55 Ripon- Spinatrix clearly sets the standard here as she has run very well in Listed races. However, she carries 10 pounds more than her last winning handicap mark so it could be wise to go for CLEAR SPRING, who looks a little overpriced at double figures.


And a few at Market Rasen...

1:45- VOSNE ROMANEE has AP McCoy to aid his cause this time so could overturn the form with Full Day. David Pipe's Unanimite is the threat but the price has gone about him.

2:15- COOL SKY is fancied to follow up on his recent Plumpton win. Discay's jumping may let him down in this sterner contest and the drop in trip may not suit him either.

2:50- HOUSTON DYNIMO should go well for the in form David Pipe stable whilst DRUMLANG should also go well.


Enjoy your Saturday

Happy Punting!

IF YOU WANNABE A WINNER

Newmarket's Cambridgeshire meeting goes into its second day today with the highlight being the Group 2 Shadwell Joel Stakes. It looks a race full of quality but also one that is very wide open as you could a give chance to at least half a dozen of these. WANNABE YOURS is one of those. A horse who is unbeaten so far this season, he put up a career best last time out in the Thoroughbred Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and it was his trainer John Gosden's comments following that race which were rather interesting. He said that he could be a horse who is good enough to emulate star stablemate Kingman in winning the Sussex Stakes next year. If we are to believe he could be of that class, he should go very well today.

Wannabe Yours (far right)

Another horse who has been notching up plenty of victories lately and is in the form of his life is CUSTOM CUT. Although this is the toughest race he's faced for a long time, he could be worth chancing at a double figure price. He is tough and looks sure to put in a bold showing.

Another Group 2 on the card is the Rockfel Stakes for two year old fillies. The short favourite is Jim Bolger's Lucida. This is due to her very narrow defeat at the hands of Cursory Glance in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. She no doubt sets the standard her but there are other smart juveniles in the field, namely NEW PROVIDENCE who beat the smart Marsh Hawk in a Group 3 last time out and before that came second behind the solid Mubtaghaa in the big sales race at York's Ebor festival. She could be set to provide trainer Hugo Palmer with yet another big race winner in what has been a fruiful season for the Newmarket based trainer.

Another trainer who has had a very good season, especially with his two year olds is Karl Burke. His WHAT SAY YOU won her maiden at the second time of asking and did so very nicely. Her trainer seems to think she will be right there at the finish which suggests that this Galileo filly might be a dark horse in this. Calypso Beat and Fadhayyil also have chances.

2:10 Newmarket- The favorite Criteria has gone very close on many occasion this season but has always found at least one too good and today would appear to be no exception. Queen Of Ice won last time out but that was under a canny ride and a repeat performance cannot be guaranteed. MY SPIRIT has raced as though this trip would be in her favour and her form is solid. The biggest danger may be Jordan Princess. She also looks as though the twelve furlong trip would favour her but her form does not look as strong as some of her opposition, as she only narrowly won a Class 3 handicap on her last run.

3:45 Newmarket- St Leger fourth Windshear no doubt sets the standard here but Mike De Kock's represnrative FLYING THE FLAG looks interesting. He would have come on plenty for his last run behind Custom Cut at York and the step up in trip should be in his favour. As for the rest, Nabucco, Penglai Pavilion, Ayrad and Magic Hurricane probably want more cut, Red Galileo's trainer Ed Dunlop is a little out of form and Harris Tweed does not look the force of old.


5:00 Newmarket- The Silver Cambridgeshire could go to one of the less exposed types in GM HOPKINS. He's two from two this season and his genius trainer surely must think he has a good chance in this extremely competitive affair or else he might not have run him given his age and relative inexperience.


A couple for Haydock too, LAP OF LUXURY (2:00) is nicely bred and runs for top connections so should go close first time out whilst YOURARTISONFIRE (4:10) always runs well at Haydock and should go close again.

Enjoy your Friday


Happy Punting!

COMET TO FLY TO VICTORY

Although this is the second day of Doncaster's Leger Festival, it is the first day that Channel 4 are showing the racing from there. The races on offer today are very competitive and full of top quality horses with the Park Hill Stakes (2:40) and the Sceptre Stakes (2:10) being the showcase races where the females can strut their stuff.

The Park Hill Stakes should be dominated by the top two in the betting in my opinion. ARABIAN COMET has been running very well of late, including a second behind the game mare Missunited at Glorious Goodwood which was followed by another solid second at York's Ebor Festival. A replication of those runs will see her go mightily close again today. As for SEAL OR APPROVAL, a hugely average run in the Lancashire Oaks seemed to have been long forgotten with a third place behind two quality horses in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes next time out. That run suggested that she was coming back to her Group 1 winning best, she looks to be wound up nicely for this.

Arabian Comet (left of picture)

The Sceptre Stakes looks to be a massively competitive affair but despite this, the betting suggests it is a one horse race with Bragging. There is no doubting that she is a very good filly and she could prove to be very good but there are other good horses in this race so her price of 2/1 looks remarkably short. J WONDER is a horse who has done little wrong, including winning at Glorious Goodwood last time out. The apple of her trainer's (Brian Meehan) eye, she could be overpriced at 7's due to Bragging's appearance. Second behind her at Goodwood that day was MUTEELA, who also looks overpriced at 11's. She is a very consistent horse who looks sure to run another good race.

The big sales race (3:15) looks to be another solid race full of decent two year olds. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching booking aboard HEARTBREAK HERO implying that he may be good enough to make it three wins in a row. Although THE GREAT WAR has not lived up to his lofty promise at the start of the season, he has still proved himself to be a fairly good horse and today sees him face one of his easiest tasks in quite a while. He should be good enough to make his presence felt.

3:45- Despite ELHAAME winning a weaker race than this last time out, the handicapper has not been too harsh on him and he looks capable of running well again today. MANGE ALL looked as though a step up in trip would be ideal based on his win on King George day at Ascot last time out. Even though Long Cross is the favourite, Mange All is the best of the three year olds for me given his superior experience on a racetrack.

5:00- This maiden looks quite smart and it would seem as though that ones with racecourse experience has the upper hand. Providing that COMMEMORATIVE steps up as he should from his debut, he will go close whilst KING OF NORMANDY is an interesting horse for Richard Hannon based on his sole run to date at Deauville.

Enjoy your Thursday and the lovely weather, however late in the year it is...

Happy Punting!

EBEY-INA WITH A GOOD CHANCE

Galway host a decent fixture today that starts in the late afternoon and goes into the early evening. Dermot Weld appears to have a strong hand at a course where he always has plenty of success. His EBEYINA should go very close in the days feature race (6:35). She won her debut with aplomb. She then came a respectable second behind a potentially useful horse of Aidan O'Brien's in Red Rocks Point which was followed by another solid performance when coming third behind a couple with a little more experience. Plenty of today's opposition look exposed, the exception being Jim Bolger's Altesse, who with only one run under her belt would have to be quite smart to win this. The main danger could prove to be Tarana but she has a tough task on her hands in that she has to give my selection twelve pounds.

Ebeyina

The fillies' maiden (5:35) looks to be quite a warm little affair with quite a few looking to have chances. Weld's representative HARASAVA has to be feared given her connections and her price suggests that she has some ability. However, there are some question marks against her, namely the ground (may be too firm) and the distance (may want further) but her trainer's record at readying horses to win first time out cannot be ignored and she looks to have a good chance. Another horse who has come in for a lot of support in the day is COULD SHOULD WOULD, who ran a very nice race last time out and was entered to run in a far better race than this before she was withdrawn. She still has a rather flashy entry in the Moyglare Stud Stakes and although she probably is not up to winning a race of that grade, it suggests that she may have what it takes to win a race of this calibre. Before Long is the main danger in the race, she brings the best form to the table with her very close second in her last outing.

Dermot Weld has a good record at Galway but he's not the only person to have a good strike rate there. Owner Dr Ronan Lambe has a 36% strike rate (9-25) so any of his representatives ought to be noticed. The pair team up with SILVER GAUNTLET, who has not shown a lot of form to date but the application of blinkers, together with the step up in trip, may eke out some improvement in him in a race that may not take much winning.

In the final race (7:35), it could be worth opposing the Weld juggernaut and backing the O'Brien one instead, courtesy of VIVAT REX. He may not turn out to be a stable star at Ballydoyle and the blinkers on debut is a worry but this race may not take much winning and the favourite Wrap Star looks a little exposed.

Enjoy your Monday and TRY to enjoy the England game if you're watching

Happy Punting

 

WATER CHANCE HOLE HAS

And what is quite an average Saturday's racing, the highlight is perhaps the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown (3:15). Fintry is probably the class horse in the field but it could pay to side with an equally unexposed horse in WATER HOLE. She has done nothing but improve in everyone of her four runs and further improvement will see her go very close. This is not the grandest renewal of this race so the Gosden runner should go well. The softer ground may mean that German raider DIAMOND DOVE will put in a bold showing too.

Buick and Gosden team up with Water Hole.

Another big race at Sandown is the Solario Stakes and it's another race that does not look like a vintage renewal. The leading pair in the market, Aktabantay and Future Empire, are far too short in my opinion so instead I think it would be wiser to side with a couple of bigger priced horses, PALLISTER, who was not disgraced in a tougher race last time out and COCK OF THE NORTH, who is another solid performer who was not too far behind Aktabantay last time out. The price difference between the two makes little sense.

In the 3:50, SPA'S DANCER should have a chance given his previous record at the course, the cut in the ground and the positive jockey booking in Ryan Moore whilst WHAT ABOUT CARLO has looked quite a classy performer when there has been juice in the surface and he gets that today. Ajmany is a threat but is high enough in the weights. Forgotten Hero, Mount Shamsan and Viewpoint should also be feared in a competitive race.

Chester 2:20- BALLESTEROS finally gets his ground and a tumble in the weights should see him go mightily close. B Fifty Two is the clear danger although I think he is quite short in the market now.

Chester 3:30- With cut in the ground and, if getting an easy lead, SPECIAL MEANING may be hard to beat. DE RIGEUR also has a chance as his trainer says that he is none the worse for his disappointing Ebor run a week ago, citing the firm ground as the reason. His performances before that suggest he is a big player here.

And finally, the Beverley Bullet (2:25)- old campaigner KINGSGATE NATIVE has a lot in his favour today, namely easier opposition and a firmer surface whilst consistent handicapper LINE OF REASON could also go well.

Premier League- NEWCASTLE, SUNDERLAND, SWANSEA-WEST BROM DRAW, WEST HAM-SOUTHAMPTON DRAW.

Championship- BRIGHTON, NORWICH, ROTHERHAM, WIGAN-BIRMINGHAM DRAW

Enjoy your Saturday

Happy Punting!