CAN YOU STOP THE CAVALRY?...

In reply to today's blog title, no is my opinion. CAVALRYMAN looks a good thing in the Artemis Goodwood Cup. He should stay (he has won over today's distance at Sandown and Meydan) and has the class (his third in Sea The Stars' Derby shows this). His win last time out is proof that he is in good heart, even at the grand old age of 8. Estimate is rather short in my opinion and Brown Panther will no doubt have another tough race on his hands to add to the others he's had this season. Northumberland Plate winner Angel Gabrial may not be good enough and Forgotten Voice's performance last time out was hardly inspiring. The rest do not look up to this either.

So in the words of Jona Lewie, "Can you stop the cavalry?"... it'll take a mighty
performance by something else for sure. 

In the 2:05, Roseburg is clearly the class horse in the race. He's won his last three races but the handicapper has not let this go unnoticed. The next horse down the racecard carries 12 pounds less and the ones at the bottom are carrying a relative featherweight. Factor in the fact that Roseburg would appear to want softer ground would mean that he is well worth opposing today. A horse who benefits massively from Roseburg's presence is RAINBOW ROCK. Even though he is five pounds out of the handicap, he still carries an extremely low weight and Cam Hardie's five pound claim negates the pounds he loses in the handicap. He won his last race very cosily and the fact he gets 26, yes 26, pounds off Roseburg means he goes into this race with a massive chance. EXAMINER should also go well, his last two runs have been very solid, bearing in mind they were his first two runs on turf after all his previous starts being on the all weather. This could even be a little easier than the Newmarket handicap he ran in last time out, he may have been lucky in not being raised anything for that performance.


The Richmond Stakes (2:35) should probably go the way of Ivawood who is one of the best juveniles we have seen so far this season. However, his price means he is of no interest to me whatsoever so the speculative vote goes to JUNGLE CAT in the hope that he can somehow reverse the July Stakes form with the favourite. He is a decent horse in his own right, his third in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot is very solid form and in a field where the majority look either too inexperienced or just much of a muchness to land a blow, he is worth putting a little bit of money on.

Jungle Cat (green, red cap) and Ivawood (right) do battle again

In the Lillie Langtry Stakes, there is another warm favourite courtesy of Missunited. She has adopted that position following her amazing third in the Gold Cup. However, many may deem this a fluke and given that she was always to the fore that day, many would argue that she would not be able to do that again. Somewhat was a prime example of this on Wednesday, his official rating was miles clear of the rest he raced against based solely on his Eclipse third at 100/1. Although he ran well behind Snow Sky and Windshear, he did not win and Missunited may be another who cannot follow up a surprise performance with a win. Certianly at the price she is currently you would have to oppose her. My selection is WAILA, who gets her ground and has been running well of late without actually winning. She has come second on her last two runs but chances are she ran into two decent types and it could be safe to say that a repeat performance of those efforts will see her go mightily close on Thursday. As for the others, Talent just has not built on her Oaks win and will probably want it softer, Stella Bellissima is impeccably bred being by Sea The Stars and a half sister to strong stayers Duncan and Samuel but she may just lack a little experience and Nymphea may just find one too good, as she was beaten by Moment In Time, a horse who Waila got the better off at York last time out. Whatever happens, it may prove to be that the John Gosden trained Stella Bellissima is the best horse to come out of this race in the long term.

Waila (yellow cap) trouncing her rivals at Newmarket

There is a decent handicap at 4:50, where CHAMPIONSHIP should go close as things just seem to be coming together nicely now for him and ALMARGO is also a player on ground he is crying out for and a distance that should pose no problems at all. If he is allowed to dictate from the front he may be hard to peg back.


And a couple for Galway...

I may be a fool for fancying a John Ferguson horse in an extremely competitive hurdle race but PARLOUR GAMES is an intriguing runner. He has won two out of this three starts over timber, the only time he did not win may have been due to the ground. It will not be as firm as it was that day at Stratford but it will be good ground which should hopefully pose no problems. Barry Geraghty is an interesting jockey booking and although he will have to improve massively on his previous National Hunt outings, he is one to keep an eye on. DARWINS FOX should also go well for Davy Russell. His second behind the useful dual-purpose horse Simenon last time out looks solid form and he looks to have a chance.

Parlour Games (left)

Enjoy the racing on offer today

Happy Punting!

TUPI TO WIN MORE THAN JUST COPPERS

Today's main race at Goodwood is, of course, the Sussex Stakes. I'm not having a bet on it although Toronado did become interesting to me at 11/4. However, I never planned to have him and, as a result, he's left alone. Plus, if Kingman is as good as he promises, he should be good enough getting an allowance too.

In the Veuve Cliquot Vintage Stakes (3:40), TUPI is the main selection. Quite frankly, previous runnings of this race suggests he has a massive chance. The last four winners have all been trained by Richard Hannon and have been Irish bred. Tupi is both of these so hopefully he can make it five in a row. PALLISTER is also selected, he has won his last two races and runs for a trainer who always does well here. As for the favourite Highland Reel, the step down to seven furlongs makes little sense to me. He may be lacking in pace against some of these.

Tupi on his debut at Sandown.

Goodwood 1:55- SOLAR VIEW- winning form over two miles for a trainer who does well with progressive handicappers. PRESTO VOLANTE could go well at a price too.

Goodwood 2:30- Providing SOMEWHAT can show that his Eclipse run was no fluke, he should take a lot of beating here. CLOUDSCAPE may improve for a step up in trip. His trainer does well with three year old staying types. Snow Sky will want it softer, as may Observational and Scotland.

Goodwood 4:15- Apparently, Charlie Hills has always been quite sweet on HUNDI and she has a good chance in the fillies' maiden. Her run was better than the bare form suggests in her first run in what appears to be quite a hot maiden. She was treated kindly that day and is sure to improve. Shahah obviously has claims although the price isn't attractive and although Touchline has been well backed today, Michael Bell's horses usually come on for their first run.

Goodwood 4:50- HIKING won better than the result suggests at Salisbury last time out and looks a filly potentially going places. The firm ground should not be a hinderance, she looks to have a big chance.


And a couple for the Galway Plate...

Previous winners of this have had Official Ratings less than 139, carried less than 11 stone, were Irish bred and their ages ranged from 6-10. On the basis of this, BURN AND TURN and SHANPALLAS are the choices. Paul Moloney looks an interesting booking on the latter. Count Salazar at a price could be the danger.

Enjoy the duo of festivals

Happy Punting!

WINSTANLEY SHOULD DO JUST THAT

Very brief post today for the first day of Glorious Goodwood. Tips in sentence form.


4:15- WINSTANLEY has experience and bumped into a smart horse last two races. Ryan Moore booked. Big chance. MUTAFARREJ has a chance for a trainer in scintillating form.

Winstanley (foreground) in the paddock

1:55- SALUTATION should go well for a stable who always do well here. AJMAN BRIDGE ran a good race last time out and should relish the firm ground.

2:30- Beacon should win but worth opposing with COTAI GLORY, who ran a decent race behind useful juvenile Limato in his last race. DOUGAL is overpriced as well, especially given that stable's apparent second string won this last year.

3:05- Toormore should really win but ground little firmer than ideal for him. Need to back a horse who could cause a shock so German raider AMARILLO is the selection. Course specialist Boom And Bust is a big price too.

3:40- CONTINUUM won well at York last time out and trainer has a very good strike rate at the course. Another who should go well is NOBLE SILK, who has been running consistently of late.

And two for Galway...5:05- QUEEN ALPHABET- Two miles looks like her ideal trip, good ground should suit and Davy Russell on board is positive. 6:45- BARAWEEZ- consistent horse who looks likely to run another solid race. Colm O'Donoghue an interesting jockey booking.

Enjoy Goodwood, Galway or whatever you are doing

Happy Punting

BACKING MILLY IS A GIFT

This post is written whilst I'm still high on Taghrooda euphoria. Once she had hit the front, my jaw simply dropped as she extended her margin of victory. It was the performance of a superstar filly and you would be hopeful that there is a lot more to come from this offspring of Sea The Stars, who is really finding his stride as a sire after struggling to find the winners in 2013. It really seems as though, like himself, his progeny put in their best performances when they go beyond 2 years old. Anyway, my main selection today is another filly running at Ascot. She may not be quite in Taghrooda's league, but she's a smart filly in her own right.

MILLY'S GIFT (Ascot 5:20) last two runs have been very solid, a success over Sandown's 5 furlong speed test then over today's course and distance where she finished second behind a potential improver in Discussiontofollow. She appears to be well drawn and the challenge she faces today is far less imposing. Previous winners of this race have all been aged 4 or 5, which is another thing in her favour as she is a four year old. Big chance.

Milly's Gift (leading), winning at Sandown.

In the last two races at Carlisle, VICTORY DANZ (5:00) could be in with a chance. He could be well weighted (he is one pound lower than when he came second behind Miss Lucy Jane, who went on to win next time out) but I think that it's less about his quality and more about potential weaknesses in his opposition. Her Red Devil's rider George Chaloner is 0-24 from rides at Carlisle whilst Archie's Advice, who was behind Her Red Devil last time out, looks no better than Victory Danz but is 9/4, whereas Victory Danz is available at 5's. That price difference makes little sense to me.

In the 5:30 at Carlisle, I'm plumping for a horse who I backed last time out when he won nicely at Ayr. HANALEI BAY has only been raised three pounds for that last win and although the step down in trip looks a little bemusing, he should be capable of putting in another bold showing today.

We are staying up north for the final selections of the day, courtesy of Pontefract. The 3:30 is quite a competitive affair, where you could make a case for several in the field. I've chosen two in this, the first of which is a horse who has been running very solidly lately, SPANISH PLUME. Numerous decent runs on the all weather were followed by a second behind Thecornishcowboy, who was going through a purple patch at the time. Last time out he won at Chester for five pound claimer Kevin Stott and he takes the ride again. The other pick is CROQUEMBOUCHE, who simply looks very well weighted based on his best form, due to him being aided by seven pound claimer Megan Carberry. His last run hinted that there is some ability left in him too.

The 4:40 at Pontefract should see DARK CASTLE run another good race. He may be still weighted a little highly but he ran into a horse who was very nicely weighted at Catterick last time. A repeat display of that should him go close.

And finally Pontefract's concluding race, the 5:40. MEY BLOSSOM may be a 9 year old but she is still putting in admirable performances. Her win two outings ago and her third last time out would be good enough for her to win if she replicated them. Pabusar's strike rate is uninspiring and Pearl Noir's two successes have come off marks of 43 and 47, he goes off 51 today. 

Enjoy your Sunday

Happy Punting!

TOP AND TAG THE TWO TO BACK

Saturday sees one of my favourite races in the calendar take place, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. These contests where the three year old generation pit their wits against their older counterparts are often mouthwatering clashes and this year's renewal does not seem an exception. The triumvirate of three year olds this year are intriguing and my selections are two of these.

Connections of EAGLE TOP would have been overjoyed that the heavens opened on Friday afternoon, as there were doubts about his participation would the ground have been too firm. That downpour looks almost certain to have allayed any fears of him not running. This seems a little peculiar as he won on a road at Royal Ascot, but his trainer John Gosden cited the reason as that he would prefer ground with some cut in it and that he wants to keep him sound for later races. This suggests that Gosden rates him highly, thinking he can go onto better things. Jockey William Buick also appears to be quite sweet on him following his facile victory in the King Edward VII Stakes. Although he came off the bridle fairly early that day, the way he put the race to bed was visually impressive and although he may not have beaten much that day, he looks like the sort of horse who could progress enough to take the spoils.

Fourth in a Leicester Class 3 Handicap to Group 1 glory?

My other selection is Oaks victor TAGHROODA. She could hardly have won the Epsom Classic any more impressively but it has to be noted that the form is a little sketchy in places. The last three year old filly to run in this race was another unbeaten Oaks winner, Eswarah, who was owned Mr Hamdan Al Maktoum, the same owner as Taghrooda. She was beaten a long way that day, so Taghrooda would have to be a super filly if she is to make her presence felt. But for me, she could be THAT good. Not forgetting she gets allowances for her age and sex too.

Is Ghrood good enough?

As for the final three year old in the lineup, Romsdal may fall a little short at this grade at this time. He has place claims for sure but this may just be a prep run for the St Leger, where he looks to be in pole position as it stands.

Now for the older horses. Telescope is far too short a price for a horse who has never won a Group 1. Admittedly his rout last time out was very impressive but he really was not beating world beaters and would have to step up a lot on that to get competitive here. If he is the next Harbinger then so be it, but I'm not quite convinced... yet.

Magician and Trading Leather are solid horses but I think they both might find at least one too good. Magician usually gets beaten by one or two, his moment in the sun being in the Breeders Cup Turf. However, that day he was given a spectacular ride by the imperious Ryan Moore. The question posed here is has Magician got enough talent of his own to win another valuable prize? Not for me. As for Trading Leather, he is another who often finds at least one too good, including when second behind Novellist in this race last year. He was well beaten that day in truth and I just think he may not be good enough to claim first prize. His big race success came in the Irish Derby, but this was a poor race considering it was a Classic and it seems as though he would have to run a massive personal best to win this. Just not quite good enough in my opinion.

Coral Eclipse winner Mukhadram is a doubtful stayer and looks unlikely to get an easy lead here. He'll need everything to fall into place for him to succeed and I just don't see this reliable, hardy horse doing it in this race. However, a Coral Eclipse winner at 16/1 in any race is a little startling to be fair.

Leitir Mor- enjoy the day.

Enjoy the big race

Happy Punting!

IT'S IMPORTANT TO STAY CAHAL

As well as trying to conjure up some winning selections, I'd like to think this blog can offer some advice as well. Today's advice is that you need to stay cool in the glorious sunshine, as it can be extremely dangerous if you do not. You could end up becoming dehydrated or getting sunstroke...

Okay, less of the lifestyle tips now and back to the racing tips. I'm hopeful that alongside staying cool in the sun, backing CAHAL in Catterick's 4:50 would make the sun even more wonderful. Catterick seems to be a course which favours front running types, which Cahal is. He's got course experience which is a positive and the trip appears to be ideal. He'd been running over 7 furlongs until his last run, where he posted a much improved performance over 6 furlongs. He runs over 6 furlongs today and gets the three year olds weight allowance. Against a field containing plenty with question marks against their names, Cahal must be a major player.

Dandy Nicholls, trainer of Cahal

Another horse of interest at Catterick is MUTAFAAKIR (4:20), who has also won over the course, will appreciate the step down to the minimum distance and is a front running horse. He goes in first time blinkers today and a three pound rise foe his last win seems fair. SAFFIRE SONG could go well at a huge price too.

Lingfield

3:30- Back to the scene of her maiden win, PASSING BY seems to have a lot in her favour today. Running over distances that were probably a little too far for her, the step back to 7 furlongs should be in her favour. MISSTEMPER should also go well given her decent all weather form and her win last time out on her first start for her new trainer.

4:30- CHAMPAGNE CHARLEY may be quite an awkward ride so hopefully the application of the tongue tie for the first time will make her an easier task for jockey Shane Kelly. She still appears to be nicely weighted so a good run should be on the cards.

5:00- Quite an interesting race to conclude proceedings at Lingfield, where there are doubts over a lot of the field staying. SPIRIT OR SOUL should stay (he races as though he'll stay the trip) and looks a nice price whilst Mairise is the main danger, although he may lack a little pace towards the finish.

One for Sandown. 8:50- TOM SAWYER. Course and distance with capable claimer Megan Carberry negating the rise in the weights

Enjoy the weather

Happy Punting!

MAN THE MAN AT BEVERLEY

Some thoughts on some races today

6:45 Beverley

MISTER MANANNAN hit his lowest official rating to date on his last run, where he finished a respectable third. He was beaten that day by a horse who was wearing a first time visor and had also seen his handicap mark tumble considerably of late. My selection runs off the same mark today, so ought to go very close again. BRONZE BEAU is only one pound above his last winning mark today and gets ground he will like.

Mister Manannan

4:55 Ayr

SOUND ADVICE has ground he'll like and was only put up two pounds in the handicap for his win last time out. Of course, he'll have a battle for the lead with the Mark Johnston representative Ifwecan but Sound Advice just seemed a little overpriced in my opinion.

6:25 Windsor

Brian Meehan's horses usually come on for their debut run so MOON RIVER is of obvious interest. First time blinkers is also intriguing. William Haggas' MAJESTIC MANNER is also one to note, given her decent breeding (Dubawi filly out of a Sun Chariot winner). To me, the Hannon newcomer Hey You may be better on a softer surface being a Whipper filly.

Happy Punting!