LODGE AND STAR LOOK VINTAGE

The last 48 hours has seen the world of National Hunt racing shaken up like a Christmas snow globe and it doesn't seem as though the snow is going to settle this weekend, that's for sure. With Cheltenham hot prospects and long odds-on shots being beaten, both in Britain and Ireland, it suggests that this weekend will be no different.

The Welsh National is the headline race in Britain this weekend and as a 20 runner, 3 mile 5 furlong slog implies, its proved pretty hard to decipher. Well Refreshed seems to have a good chance, but recent runnings of the race show that 8 year old and less are favoured, Mountainous again looks a decent shot but I've plumped for HIGHLAND LODGE, a relentless galloper who will revel in the bottomless ground. He looks as though he'll stay and the form of trainer and especially jockey Leighton Aspell boosts his chances. Another horse who looks smart is VINTAGE STAR, for 2013 English Grand National winning jockey/trainer combination, he is very consistent and again should love the ground, something which is paramount, especially round Chepstow. I wouldn't discount RED ROCCO either, who loves soft ground and should stay. I've seen 33's about him, that is too big.

The other big race of the day is the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in Ireland. This looks to be a peculiar race, with many unknowns to contend with. Has Bobs Worth recovered after his Haydock no-show?, has Sir Des Champs recovered from his horrific fall last time out?, does First Lieutenant really have the class to win this and prove himself a viable Gold Cup candidate come March??. For me, I simply cannot back Bobs Worth, but I am willing to give SIR DES CHAMPS another chance, who if recovering from that fall, should have the class that saw him win the Punchestown Gold Cup and come second in the Cheltenham equivalent. Who was to know how he would run had he not fell, we know that Bobs Worth ran a stinker on the other hand.

A safer bet all together may be UNIONISTE, who is definitely race fit, won well last time out, will relish the ground and has plenty of scope. It may be him actually who emerges as a major Gold Cup player come 3:05 this afternoon. Although Lord Windermere beat him at Cheltenham, Unioniste has proved himself since, Lord Windermere ran a decent eighth in the Hennessy, although a mere replication  of that performance will not do in this race.

OTHER TIPS

1:30 Chepstow PURE SCIENCE- hasn't had ground this soft since his first two runs, the first of which saw him hack up in a Warwick bumper. Will have to improve his jumping, but if he does and he stays 3 miles, he has a big chance. Moorlands Mist main danger.

2:00 Chepstow- Not the greatest juvenile Group 1 you've ever seen, unsure why there is a big gap in prices between Solar Impulse and LE ROCHER, given that their French form is not that difference. The latter had decent form up until a drab run last time out, but is well regarded by his trainer and he would not be one to waste an entry like this, usually very shrewd with his juveniles. Cant help thinking if he was trained by either Messrs Nicholls or Henderson he would be more 5/2 and less 11/2.

3:10 Chepstow- If MAIL DE BIEVRE can handle top weight, he looks well in here. He was contending with the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Silviniaco Conti last year. Although hugely out of his depth, it shows what his trainer thinks of him. He should appreciate the ground and if he is as good as his entries last year suggested, he could, and that is could, obliterate the opposition.

1:45- Newbury The Challow is also a cracker and may have been overlooked by some on this bumper weekend of action. You'll need a horse that will like softer ground and will stay all day and KAKI DE LA PREE fits that bill. I won on him when he won a shade cosily in a Carlisle handicap hurdle, seeming to have eluded the handicapper somewhat then. This is, of course, a lot tougher than that Carlisle race, but with doubts as to whether some of the opponents will handle the ground, he seems a decent bet.

HAPPY PUNTING

CHATTERBOX- Not the talking horse

Today's main race, the Ladbroke, is a wide open affair. This is shown by the betting, where they are 9/1 the field. Two of the main fancies come from the Henderson stable which has lead to another tough choice for Barry Geraghty. From Rolling Star and Chatterbox, he has chosen the former. This was a horse that was well hyped as a juvenile, so much so he started a fairly short favourite in a competitive Triumph Hurdle. He ran a fairly average race that day, finishing 20-odd lengths behind the runaway winner. He then ran at Aintree and again ran below par. Haydock saw a successful reappearance this season, where he ran a solid race, albeit the favourite ran a bad race.


He has been hinted at being Champion Hurdle class, maybe that is why Geraghty opted to ride him. However, if he is going to be competing with the likes of The New One, My Tent or Yours and Hurricane Fly come March, he will have to be winning this, even of 11-11. Although Geraghty rarely gets it wrong, as proven by Triolo D'Alene in the Hennessy, I am willing to go against his judgement and plump for CHATTERBOX, a horse that beat the almighty My Tent or Yours as a novice, wasn't disgraced at Cheltenham against The New One and on his reappearance, was beaten into second having travelled well throughout and looking the likely winner 2 out. He will no doubt strip fitter for that and I rate him as having a great chance. Hopefully, come 3:45, they'll all be talking about Chatterbox.

Also think CITY SLICKER is not without a chance, being winning low grade races in Ireland but he's no Slicker Slacker.



As for the other selections for today, SALUBRIOUS in the Long Walk has a speculative chance. The odds on favourite in this race jumped woefully last time out and Salubrious has ran a couple of solid races this season, including a second to the progressive More of That and I think 8/1 about Salubrious is a decent bet.


Over at Haydock, the 2:05 will no doubt become a slog, so a horse like Tartak may struggle. NO PLANNING may run well with form in the book, although there are 6 in that race with decent chances.


The 2:40 is a far less competitive affair than it was before Puffin Billy was withdrawn and MORNING ROYALTY, who ran in Rolling Star's Haydock race last time out, is back in handicap company. This may improve his chances and could run well in a fairly bog standard Class 2 Handicap Hurdle.


After today, everything (racing wise at least), gears towards the King George, where a mouthwatering clash awaits. For now, I wish everybody a Merry Christmas and...

HAPPY PUNTING