Saturday 25 January 2014

UNION-EASE-TE

This is a top Saturday for racing. Two great cards, both with plenty of Cheltenham hopefuls running. So lets get stuck into them...

The 3:15 at Doncaster is the Skybet Chase, which sees UNIONISTE start as favourite. Obviously, that is down to him being the class horse of the race, but the shortness of his price is probably as a result of both his trainer's and prolific tipster Pricewise's confidence. In truth, if he doesn't show any after effects from his below par run in Ireland late last year, then he should be more than capable of winning a race like this. Especially as the opposition, in my opinion, look merely like a slightly above average group of Class 2 handicappers, with GULLINBURSTI being my other selection for the race; he may be slightly better than a Class 2 handicapper and could prove the biggest danger.


My other selection at Doncaster is RACING PULSE. He seems to have a lot going for him; good trip, decent ground and good form. He was simply sublime at Newcastle when winning and his third place at Cheltenham wasn't bad, on awful ground in a muddling race. Urban Hymn rates the biggest danger, although you'd think my selection has a massive chance.

An awesome Cheltenham card kicks off for me in the 1:50, where DOUBLE ROSS is after his third win in a row, all at Prestbury Park. He's versatile ground-wise, tough as teak and hopefully he can continue his winning run.

The 2:25 at Chelteham, the Argento Chase, is an interesting race. Recent renewals of the race have suggested that 9 and 10 year olds are the most likely age group of the winner and a horse slightly bigger in the betting would be expected to win. I initially thought Champion Court had a great chance but the ground may have gone against him now, so instead I've plumped for RESTLESS HARRY, a horse who fits the bill for the race. He won very easily last time out, albeit in a handicap, loves the ground and could run well at a price.

As for the Cleeve, it would be lovely to see Big Buck's win after a long absence in truth, but if he isn't at the top of his game then BOSTON BOB could be the one to capitalise on it. He won very nicely last time out and the fact that he is race fit is firmly in his favour. It should be a brilliant race and hopefully the winner will be a worthy one.

Have a good weekend everybody


Happy Punting!

Saturday 18 January 2014

CYCLONE TO BLOW THEM AWAY

Hoping to follow on from the 2 winners last week, tips this week come courtesy of decent cards at Ascot and Haydock. Without further a do, here we go...

The feature race at Ascot today is the Sodexo Clarence House Chase, a Group 1. Favourite Sire De Grugy is the pick of form and ratings, but I'm yet to be convinced that he is of the very top class. In the Tingle Creek, he beat many of the horses who re-oppose today, namely Somersby, Oiseau de Nuit and Kauto Stone. He beat Oiseau de Nuit at Kempton last time out, albeit he wasn't that convincing in the process. Apart from Somersby and Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy has yet to beat anything of high calibre over fences and Sprinter Sacre can be excluded from that for obvious reasons. I would deem Sire De Grugy to be vulnerable against an unknown entity to him.

Somersby loves it round Ascot but may be caught out by the ground. A horse that would seem to have conditions in his favour is HIDDEN CYCLONE. He will go on the heavy ground and his form over a little further than todays distance should put him in good stead. A solid run behind Benefficient in an Irish Group 1 last time means that he is well up to scratch at this level and he should run a mighty race. His compatriot Days Hotel may actually be the biggest danger to the selection, who will really relish the ground. The double figure price about him could be too big.

Other Ascot races

1:50- These mares hurdle races are always caget affairs and most have chances, but I've opted for CAROLES SPIRIT, who is 3 from 3 over hurdles, including a victory at Newbury in which she beat a former Henderson winner and a future Nicholls winner. She could have a touch of class. Highland Retreat should run well too, Mickie too short a price in my opinion in what is a close race.

2:25- A race where many of the runners have question marks next to their names. CITIZENSHIP won last time out and should like the ground, so looks solid. Irish Saint could go well if he re-captures his juvenile form, Minella Forfitness runs after a long lay off, The Skyfarmer's best form is on better ground, Get Back In Line could be anything and Bourne may simply not be good enough.

3:00- A two horse race in my opinion, between RENARD and Theatrical Star. The former has won his last two races at Chepstow and providing he appreciates the step up in trip, should go close. The latter won nicely last time out, but in a weaker race than today's, which is why I've gone for Renard.

Haydock races

2:05- A race which has been domianted by David Pipe's French import, Un Temps Pour Tout. I find it hard to fathom how a horse on his British debut, in a competitive little race can be close to evens. Barry Geraghty talked about how well STAND TO REASON handles softer ground in his weekly blog. If he runs up to the standard he's shown so far, he has a massive chance of winning.

3:15- With a trainer in red hot form, the application of blinkers working a treat and course and ground in his favour, NIGHT ALLIANCE has a huge chance, providing he can overcome a hike in the weights. VINO GRIEGO is another selection for this race, beating two decent types at Sandown last time out and that ground that should suit, he could run nicely at big odds.


Best of luck to everybody today

Happy Punting!









Friday 17 January 2014

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY- A TRIBUTE

The Happy Punter was anything but after hearing the sad news that St Nicholas Abbey had passed away after complications following colic. A horse once classed as fragile grew up to be anything but, becoming one of the strongest, most reliable horses in training.

St Nicholas Abbey was named after a spectacular, Jacobean mansion in Barbados and his reputation was just as grand leading up to his debut. It was 2009 when he won his debut at the Curragh at odds of 11/10 and won the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the same course just over a month later. His 2 year old career culminated in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, where he won impressively, cementing his place as Europe's top juvenile.

 
St Nicholas Abbey running riot in the Racing Post Trophy



As a result of his superb first year of racing, he was made evens favourite for the 2000 Guineas in May, despite not having a prep run that season. Ultimately, he ran disappointingly, finishing 6th, although he was behind class performers such as Makfi, Dick Turpin and the champion miler Canford Cliffs. That was to be his only run of the season.


St Nicholas Abbey (purple and white silks) finishing
a disappointing 6th in the 2000 Guineas.
 
 
 
His first run in his 4 year old season was in a Listed event at the the Curragh. At 4/11, big things were expected but he could only muster a third place finish. It was this event that made people really begin to doubt him, saying he hasn't lived up to the hype that surrounded him and that he wouldn't become a superstar. Many believed that this was the end of him competing at the very top; in actual fact, his journey to the top hadn't even begun.
 
 
 
A success at Chester's May meeting was followed up by victory in the Coronation Cup at Epsom, beating reliable mare Midday in the process. This season was concluded by a respectable fifth in the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe and the biggest triumph in his career so far, the Breeders Cup Turf. Under an ice-cool Joseph O'Brien (who, incidentally, became the youngest jockey to win a Breeders Cup race) he won stylishly, signifying the beginning of a fruitful globe-trotting stage to his career.
 
 

 
 St Nicholas Abbey winning at Churchill Downs
 
 
The season after started with a close second to Cirrus des Aigles in the Sheema Classic at Meydan and contained another success in the Coronation Cup along with third place finishes in four races, losing to world beaters such as Danedream, Snow Fairy, Little Mike and the all-conquering Frankel. Famously, the latter was in the Juddmonte International at York, a race that will live long in the memory of any horse racing fan.
 
 

 

 St Nicholas Abbey (purple and white) behind Frankel
and Farrh
 
 
His 6 year old season saw 2 wins from two races, with successes in the Sheema Classic and, once again, the Coronation Cup for the third time running. Unfortunately, his Epsom victory was to be his last, as a fractured pastern ended his racing career. Here began the incredible efforts from the Ballydoyle veterinary team to keep him alive and comfortable. The progress of his treatment was well documented, with regular updates keeping the racing public informed. Every time it seemed as though his health was improving, he would have another obstacle forced upon him. Despite this, he battled on bravely until he could fight no more, his life ending on the 14th January 2014, due to a bout of colic.
 
 
A horse who was seen by many as over-hyped, he showed himself to be far from it. A Ballydoyle stalwart, his hard as nails attitude earnt him admiration from the whole of the racing community. He was like a fine wine, improved with age. A equine superstar, who will never be forgotten.
 
 
 

 
 St Nicholas Abbey
13th April 2007-14th January 2014
 
 
 
 

 
 


Saturday 11 January 2014

RIVER'S A MONEY MAIGUE-R

On what is a brilliant Saturday's racing, there are plenty of decent picks to be had. Both Kempton and Warwick's cards are really top draw, so without further a do, these are my selections.

I've made RIVER MAIGUE (2:40 Kempton) the horse in my title today, but it could have been a couple of others in all honesty. The selection was highly regarded last season, so much so he ran in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. Ultimately, he wasn't quite good enough to compete with the very best novices around in that race but it showed that connections think he is high class. After having his first race in a while last time out, he finds himself now in a race where he seems to have his optimum conditions, heavy ground and a step up in trip. He has a massive chance.

Don't discount SPIRIT OF SHANKLY in the same race either, possible question marks over the ground but if he handles it he would seem to have a good chance also. First time tongue tie worked a treat last time out when beating useful prospect Urban Hymn convincingly. Main dangers in the race would be Saphir de Rheu and Like Minded in what is a wide open, quality race.

The Tolworth Hurdle, reshceduled from last week, is another quality field. The Liquidator, the horse that I see as being in pole position for the Supreme at Cheltenham, looks the one to beat and he probably should be winning this. However, the price is just too short for me now so I've opted for GARDE LA VICTOIRE, a horse who also has decent Supreme credentials in my opinion. If he acts on the ground, he may be give The Liquidator a race, he may beat him. He's done little wrong so far so warrants confidence. In truth, if either won I'd be pretty happy. As for the others, Upazo has not performed on heavy ground in the past, Josses Hill could be anything and Royal Boy is a little bit of an enigma if his previous performaces are anything to go by.

In the 3:50 at Kempton, LYVIUS rates an outstanding chance. He met a decent, progressive sort last time out, the first two well clear and hopefully will be good enough to win this.


As for Warwick, BYGONES SOVEREIGN should go well off a featherweight, DEPUTY DAN should stay and relish the ground and in the Classic Chase, VESPER BELL should stay and love the ground and providing he's okay after falling at Aintree over the Nartional Fences he should run well. MASTER OVERSEER could go okay, if his form of consecutive P's and 1's are anything to go by, he's now due a winner. 20/1 could be foolish.

Best of luck everyone

Happy Punting!!

Saturday 4 January 2014

PASTURE LOOKS PERFECT

In a weekend slightly ruined by the weather, the quality of the races on offer has dropped somewhat. However, there is still something to be had out of what's left, the highlight of which being a decent all weather card at Lingfield. Hopefully today will act as a good advertisement for the fledgling All Weather Championships, being the first time racing on the surface has been shown on terrestrial television since the Championships were introduced.

3:10 Lingfield- In a card where the races are rather hard to call, this is no different. PERFECT PASTURE is the selection, on a roll at the moment, with 5 wins from 5 all with the application of a visor. I thought he was well handicapped when he ran at Ripon off a handicap mark of 57. He didn't win that day but look at him now. He's seen another rise in the weights since his last win but I do not think that will be enough to prevent a sixth win on the bounce, his connections are bullish about it too. Also think Diamond Charlie and Kyllachy Rise have chances of placing.

2:00 Lingfield- I had narrowed this field down to two, Joyous and PRESUMIDO. To me, Joyous is far too short a price and Presumido has a very similar chance. He won well at the course last time out and a five pound rise may not be enough to prevent another success.

3:45 Lingfield- Course specialist SCOTTISH GLEN is the selection here. Having come in the top three on the Lingfield all weather course on all occasions bar one (when 100/1 on debut), you would see no reason as to why another solid effort should be discounted this time. Main dangers are Naaz and Ishikawa.

2:15 Newcastle- My one for the jumps is NAUTICAL TWILIGHT. In a race that looks pretty dire in truth, the horses capability on such bottomless ground may be the pivotal factor as to who comes out on top. Circus Star and Lysino have never won on ground this heavy, which may be enough to stop them winning today. Although my choice also has not won on ground like this, she has not been exposed to it. If she likes it, she should do well. Factor in her weight allowances meaning her jockey carries less results in her having what I think is a decent chance today. Sam Lord is possibly the biggest danger.

Best of luck to all on a truly rancid day weather wise.


HAPPY PUNTING


Thursday 2 January 2014

MY FLAT AND JUMP RIDES OF THE YEAR

Although other people's choices will vary to mine, my selections are based upon the races that I hold dear to me, as is the case of my Top 5's, in which I backed the horse in question.



FLAT

Jockey's that deserve praise this season include Neil Callan, especially for his rides aboard Hamza and Astaire, both at Newmarket, where he showed off his ability to judge pace effectively. A jockey who, in the past I have been critical of, but has improved massively is Joseph O'Brien. His rides aboard Declaration of War at Royal Ascot and Leading Light in the St Leger are representative of the progress he has made and the confidence he has obtained this year and hopefully he can continue to improve in 2014. Another jockey who has rode at a top level this season is William Buick, especially aboard The Fugue at Leopardstown, where he gave her a peach of a ride in beating high calibre opposition. Adam Kirby's efforts on Lethal Force cannot be forgotten either, helping the horse establish himself as the season's top sprinter.

Top 5












Where will these rides feature??



5) Johnny Murtagh- CHICQUITA- Darley Irish Oaks- July 20th

In what seems to have been a flat season dominated by Mr Murtagh, this ride was class as Chicquita was renown for being a troublesome filly in her homeland and was this bound to be a worry in this Classic. Unsurprisingly, Chicquita veered left at the business end of the race but under the Murtagh drive, ended up crossing the line first.

Race replays are in the links http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JoptCCrwQY


4) Ryan Moore- GARSWOOD- bet365 Lennox Stakes- July 30th
A festival seemingly filled with brilliant rides, this was no exception. Whilst Goodwood is often seen as a difficult course to ride, Moore made it look ridiculously easily. He held up Garswood in the last pair and unleashed him up the straight. Just as it looked too late, the jockey had the horse at the front in a matter of strides and soon put the race to bed a shade cosily.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/30-07-2013/goodwood/result/572363/bet365-lennox-stakes-group-2/video?token=78ea132a0b

3) Richard Hughes- TORONADO- Qipco Sussex Stakes July 31st /WENTWORTH- Betfred Mile 2nd August

I have sandwiched these two together as I think they both deserve to be put in the Top 5 and they are pretty much carbon copy's of each other. Both Richard Hughes specials, quietly stalking the leaders then pouncing when the time is right. Toronado's race is rightfully deemed one of the races of the season, mainly due to Hughes' dexterity in the saddle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHcXhar4rKw- Toronado

http://racing.channel4.com/watch-now/key-moments/videoid=1238215/index.html#wentworth-wins-betfred-mile- Wentworth

2) Johnny Murtagh- DAVID LIVINGSTON- Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes- August 10th

This Top 5 could probably have consisted of five Murtagh rides; that is just how exceptional he has been this season. I have chosen this one not just for his impeccable drive, but for what he did just before a furlong out. He had the audacity to whip the silk off his helmet and discard it to the ground. This very act, to me, showed just how much confidence Murtagh exuded this season and that if somebody was to beat him, it would take something very special to do so.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/10-08-2013/haydock-park/result/576955/betfred-rose-of-lancaster-stakes-group-3/video

Who could the number one spot go to? Well, it does not go to Moore, Buick, Murtagh, Hughes or anybody in the very top echelons. It goes to a jockey who has performed extremely well this season, a jockey who is relatively new to the world of flat racing...

1) Graham Lee- TOMINATOR- John Smith's Northumberland Plate- 29th June

This ride had it all. When the race began to heat up, it looked as though Lee and Tominator were all dressed up with nowhere to go, so to speak. Lee had to wait patiently for the gap to appear, when it did he was quick to fill it. Once the jockey had a clear sight of the finish, he had to rely on all of his National Hunt experience to roust his mount, the result being just winning the race at the line. Simply a majestic ride.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdR-h2hczX4


JUMP

Quality rides this season include the exploits Barry Geraghty on Bobs Worth at Cheltenham and more recently Leopardstown and Leighton Aspell's heroics, minus his irons, aboard Deep Trouble at Sandown.


 








 
Will these two efforts be placed in the Top 5?










Top 5


5) Paul Carberry- SOLWHIT- Ladbrokes World Hurdle- 14th March

This was just a classic Carberry ride, calmly holding the horse up and pushing the 'Go' button just at the right time. When he pulls these wonder rides out of the bag, as he did aboard Monbeg Dude in the Welsh National, he simply oozes class.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9mzdrPR-RY

4) AP McCoy- MORE OF THAT- Best Odds Guaranteed With Betfair Sportsbook Handicap Hurdle- 23rd November

Like Paul Carberry earlier, this was an AP McCoy classic, although they are very different entities. This horse never looked like winning before two out, even at the last his chances looked slim, but when there's an AP, there is always a way. He galvanised his mount and ended up putting the race to bed nicely within a couple of strides. This, somewhat unsurprisingly, is not McCoy's last entry on the list.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/23-11-2013/haydock-park/result/593935/best-odds-guaranteed-with-betfair-sportsbook-handicap-hurdle

3) AP McCoy- HEFNER- 32Red.com Maiden Hurdle- 3rd March

This ride was simply outstanding. Whilst watching the race, Hefner had a minute chance of winning and even after jumping the last he looked beat. That was until McCoy's urgings, which started from some way out, began to play a part. AP's never say die attitude resulted in Hefner crossing the line first. Although it was only one of McCoy's many successes in a record breaking year for him, it was a mere example of how McCoy is maintaining his high standards year in, year out. If anything, he's like a fine wine, improving with age.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/03-03-2013/huntingdon/result/549896/32red-com-maiden-hurdle/video

2) Jason Maguire- HARRY TOPPER- bet365 Charlie Hall Chase- 2nd November

Following the first two fences in this race, Harry Topper's chances looked awfully small. He was very slow at both of them and he looked in trouble. But slowly and surely, Maguire nursed his mount into the race and shortly before the straight, was well in the mix. Once in the straight, Maguire got the best out of his ride, getting big jumps out of him when it mattered and driving him strongly to win the race narrowly.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/02-11-2013/wetherby/result/591021/bet365-charlie-hall-chase-grade-2/video

So here is the number one jump ride of 2013, in my opinion. The race was of an extremely high calibre and the ride was certainly up to the standard...

1) Ruby Walsh- CHAMPAGNE FEVER- William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle- 12th March

The opening to the Cheltenham festival this year was absolutely extraordinary. Walsh had Champagne Fever at the front from start to finish. AP McCoy loomed large aboard favourite My Tent or Yours as they navigated the bend and seemed the more likely winner of the two. Champagne Fever came off the bridle whilst McCoy remained motionless. Then both jockeys were in the driving position, but it was Walsh who triumphantly drove Champagne Fever up the hill, standing up in his irons, waving his stick aloft once crossing the line. A masterclass in both strength and tactics. Genius.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8fYzdy-Wug

Hope you enjoyed my review of the year and lets hope 2014 produces more of the same and so much extra.


For 2014, HAPPY PUNTING