DON'T BE SILLY, BACK ARDKILLY

FINALLY, the ground for today's racing is not completely bottomless. It seems as though that this deep ground has been around for an eternity, so its nice to have a change. However, the ground (at Kempton) is still pretty soft and it will probably need a horse who appreciates it.

Kempton's main race (apparently) is the Grade 3 Handicap Chase, (this time it's called the BetBright Chase) and you'd have to say that ARDKILLY WITNESS has a great chance. He will like the ground and has form at this distance, whereas others lack form at three miles. Hopefully, he will be staying on when others have cried enough today.

Ardkilly Witness (brown and light blue silks) should go close

under jockey Leighton Aspell.

 

I am a fan on this raceday at Kempton because of the quality of the two supporting races, the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and the Dovecote Novices' Hurdle, mainly because they usually produce decent sorts (many of whom make an impact at Cheltenham come March).

 

The Adonis looks quite a strong renewal this year with ALCALA the one chosen to win the race. Trainer Paul Nicholls is said to think quite highly of him, mentioning him in the same vein as Nicholls' classy juvenile Calipto when talking about Triumph Hurdle candidates. He's got decent form in France and from what I've seen of him he looks a decent jumper (fingers crossed, touch wood etc). I am a massive fan of the Harry Fry stable as well, so I'd be surprised if Activial doesn't go close too. He ran very well behind Calipto on his British debut and probably is the ideal type to win this race, although the value has gone. Commisioned also appears to have a chance although John Ferguson can often not come on for their first run over hurdles, so there is a possibility he may have left his best performance back there.

 

As for the Dovecote, on paper, its looks as though it is a two horse race between Irving and First Mohican. Irving has extremely smart form and looks a decent type, whilst First Mohican would have a chance if replicating some of his flat performances, although he will have to improve considerably on his hurdling debut. I'm going to oppose the front two and go for AMORE ALATO, a horse which should go on the ground and has experience of the course, having won at Kempton on Boxing Day. He may give the leading pair a fright, at least.

 

Lingfield hold a high class All Weather card today, with the highlight probably being the Winter Derby Trial Stakes. Grandeur is the class horse of the race and should probably win, although the price is short and his time off the racecourse has hardly enhanced his chances. Instead, I have opted for MODERNSTONE, a horse which has form over two furlongs further than today's distance so will hopefully make a run late up the Lingfield straight. Andrea Atzeni is a hugely capable jockey so there are no worries on that front and he could rate value in the race. Chookie Royale could also be a threat.

 

The 2:50 at Lingfield is a wide open race, with many being able to stake a claim. Ryan Moore aboard GREY MIRAGE clearly boosts his chances and he probably represents the best form on offer. He has a massive chance. Also, do not discount NEWSTEAD ABBEY, who has good form on a synthetic surface. He's a real favourite of mine, usually runs a solid race and I couldn't not back him today.

 

Finally, my last selection sees my delve into Fairyhouse's card. The 1:25 is a classy race, with many decent juveniles running in it. My tip initially was going to be Plinth. I really did think he had a great chance, so when I heard he was a non runner whilst literally writing this piece, I was a little bit gutted. However, I think I've selected an able deputy in ABBYSSIAL, a horse who fits the bill as the winner of the race and has decent form. He should be able to give the favourite, Adriana Des Mottes,  a good race.

 

 

Rugby Tips- Italy and England (Just!!!!)

 

Have a good weekend

 

Happy Punting!

 



 



WUFF AND READY

Once again, another weekend where heavy ground is prominent due to the extremely heavy rain that has battered most parts of the country. However, it has been another weekend in which groundstaff at the various courses holding fixtures have warranted massive respect for managing to get the fixtures on.

There are a lot of races which are rather hard to call today. One race that I am relatively confident on is the 4:05 at Haydock, which sees WUFF chasing a third win in a row. A horse who has been running at a distance of 2 miles 4 furlongs, but seems as though he wants further and who acts on a heavier surface, today's challenge should provide no problems whatsoever. Oscar Rock is the favourite but has never ran on a surface as testing as this, a horse who may be a more potent threat is Sego Success, that's if he handles the ground.

Tom George and Paddy Brennan, trainer and jockey respectively of Wuff

 

 

The Rendlesham Hurdle is Haydock's 2:20, with Celestial Halo as the very short priced favourite. Trainer Paul Nicholls has said that today is not the be all and end all and that he will almost certainly come on for the run. If Celestial Halo isn't quite at his peak, the horse which may be able to capitalise on this is LIENOSUS. He'll like the ground and should stay.

 

My final selection at Haydock is GARDEFORT in the 4:35. A race where the field does not really look up to much, the only two horses of any note seem to be the tip and Dungeel. Dungeel did not really beat much on his chasing debut and if Gardefort is even half decent, he should have enough to win this. A French import of Venetia Williams', it seems to have all the perfect ingredients to handle the heavy ground.

 

 

Ascot also hold a quality card today, the highlight being the Group 1 Betfair Ascot Chase. Captain Chris has a chance like a favourite should and it would not be surprising if he won. However, a couple at bigger odds that could cause an upset are ROLLING ACES and CLOUDY TOO. Both seemingly like the ground and should stay the distance. However, both will have to produce their best performances to date if they are going to be troubling Captain Chris.

 

The 2:40 at Ascot sees another French import running. Although its not WETAK's first run on British soil (having been beaten into second by Shooters Wood at Cheltenham and before that being well beaten by My Tent or Yours in a novice hurdle) his French form suggests that he should appreciate the ground. Teaforthree wants better ground than this, Houblon Des Obeaux is carrying a big weight and Highland Lodge's no show in the Welsh National when well fancied would put me off him, considering he is favourite.

 

The 3:15 is a hugely wide open affair. Heath Hunter has the form but may struggle as a novice in this company. Two Rockers' poor run last time out would put me off him, Bygones Sovereign has conditions to suit but he may not be up to scratch. It may be another French import, LOUGH KENT can prove good enough to win this. Barry Geraghty in the saddle is a bonus and he could be the sort to end up being a little bit better than his opposition today. Like Minded may prove the biggest danger, with his third to Saphir Du Rheu looking like decent form.

 

My one for the all-weather this afternoon is RUN IT TWICE, who runs in Lingfield's 4:30. Club House is far too short a price to me having only ran 3 days ago. Tee It Up Tommo has a good chance but my selection is back down to a mark in which he won last at and at around 10/1, I think that is far too big a price.

 

There are a few more I could have backed today but you cannot back them all unfortunately.

 

Chelsea vs Manchester City will hopefully be the highlight of the footballing weekend, with Pellegrini hoping he can tame Mourinho's "Little Horse". For me, the draw looks the most likely result.

 

The Winter Olympics has well and truly created some great memories so far following Jenny Jones' bronze (Britain's first Olympic medal on snow unbelievably) and of course, Lizzie Yarnold's amazing gold. Yarnold's eloquence and determination show that you can achieve anything if you put your mind to it. Its really refreshing to see somebody so down to earth making the sporting headlines for once.

 

Hopefully Team GB can add more medals to their tally in the days to come.

 

Wishing everybody a good weekend

 

Happy Punting!

EXPECT FROM ESPRIT

Another top quality Sunday of racing, courtesy of Leopardstown, sees plenty of top class races being run. Many horses are putting their Cheltenham credentials on the line, meaning it is likely that Festival aspirations, for some, are going to be left in tatters.

The race that will be looked at first is the 4:20, the Hunter Chase. The quality is outstanding for the type of race, in fact it could be argued that this is one of the best Hunter Chase's ever ran outside of Cheltenham and Aintree. On The Fringe is the favourite for the race. His race record is impressive, although he hasn't faced opposition like he does today before. The same applies for Tammys Hill and Warne, only having raced against the same horses time after time. The two potential curve balls in the race are Pandorama and QUEL ESPRIT. Both were formerly high class, winning Group 1's in their pomp. Both have ran in Point-to-Point's this season, with Pandorama coming second and Quel Esprit winning easily. If Quel Esprit can retain some of his class, he could have enough to win this nicely.

The Irish Hennessy is also ran today. A race formerly won by Quel Esprit himself, it looks a decent renewal. Recent runnings of this race have been dominated by 7 and 8 year olds, suggesting that some of the older horses may find it tough. As for the three horses that fit that trend, Lyreen Legend seems to be a bit of a crossbar horse, although he will appreciate the heavy ground. Lord Windermere looked a decent prospect when winning the RSA Chase at Cheltenham last year but so far this season his performances have not progressed from that. Furthermore, in 3 races against each other, TEXAS JACK has won all three. With the ice-cool Paul Carberry on board and form on the ground, I am dumbfounded that he is available at 16/1. Simply, if he stays, he'll go very close.

My final selection is VIGIL. I did fancy this horse before his price collapsed. He ran a very good first race despite looking inexperienced towards the finish. He is smartly bred, being by Dansili out of a mare who came second to future St.Leger winner Scorpion on debut. It looks a decent bumper, but I think my selection may be smart.

Other selections- (winners in green)

IVAN GROZNY-PLINTH  (Plinth is better price considering he beat Ivan Grozny)

THE TULLOW TANK- VAUTOUR (for today at least...)

DON COSSACK- BALLYCASEY- CARLINGFORD LOUGH (fits the bill of an RSA winner)


6 Nations- France to pummel Italy

Congratulations to Jenny Jones for winning Great Britain's first Winter Olympic medal on snow (hard to believe really) by achieving bronze in the Slopestyle. Hopefully that will be the first of many.

Happy Sunday Punting!

PASTURE TO PARTY AGAIN

On what is ANOTHER weekend that has experienced a deluge of rain, groundstaff have performed amazingly to get fixtures on. But, inevitably, the ground will still be hard work for 90% of the horses running. My first tip of the day, however, doesn't come courtesy of the jumps, but a flat horse who is becoming a real favourite of mine...

The 3:45 at Lingfield sees PERFECT PASTURE chasing his seventh success in a row. All of the 6 wins have included the application of a visor and has seen his rating rise from 57 to 100. He is a solid sort and I see no reason why it cant be seven from seven, despite this being the strongest opposition he's faced to date, with Absolutely So likely to make it a decent challenge.

Hopefully Perfect Pasture (orange and green) can record a seventh win in a row.

 

 

As for the jumps today the main event, the Betfair Hurdle, is proving to be as competitive as ever, with at least half a dozen horses with decent chances. I've whittled down to three, I couldn't choose between them. The first of these, IRISH SAINT, looks ideal for the race. Right age, right ground and isn't carrying as much weight as he should following his last race. If he replicates that performance again, he should go close. The next choice is SMASHING. He's ran two races for Willie Mullins in Ireland and has won them cosily. He is another who is the right age to win this and should go on the ground and hopefully this dashing grey is another who will be there or thereabouts. The final selection in this race is DELL' ARCA. Good age again, ground possibly a slight worry but connections say it shouldn't pose a threat. He races off a nice weight and his jockey said he was in the process of running a decent race before unseating in the Ladbroke last time out. If he produces the form that saw him win his first race on British shores than he'll go close.

 

Others in this race with chances are Far West, Chris Pea Green and Totalize and its nice see Montbazon run again after a lengthy absence. Hopefully he can come back safe and sound on what is his first run since he went close in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.

 

 

My other selection at Newbury is in the bumper at 4:40. With inexperienced horses, whether or not they will handle ground as testing as this is an enigma. One who seemed to relish it on his debut under rules was DEFINITLY RED. He quickly put the race to bed that day winning impressively and seemed to be going further away towards the finish, which suggests that he should still be battling on when others have cried enough. As for the others, Thomas Brown will be a danger if he goes on the ground, Seven Nation Army has decent form and Buckhorn Timothy could run well at a big price.

 

 

My final two selections come from Warwick. In the Kingmaker Novices' Chase, BRICK RED will revel in the ground and will be looking to make it another good Saturday for trainer Venetia Williams. He's been in good form of late and should run a good race.

 

The 3:15 should see PERSIAN SNOW go close. Form on the ground and a win last time out (against a horse re-opposing today in No Buts) , with a lot of the opposition having question marks against their names, the selection has to go close.  

 

 

It would be so nice to write a blog one week without having to use any of the following words/phrases-

 

TESTING

SOFT

SOFTER

HEAVY

HEAVIER

BOTTOMLESS

A LOT OF GETTING

TOUGH GOING

REVEL

RELISH

MUDLARK

 

Please weather, get better soon

 

As for other sports. IRELAND/ENGLAND/FRANCE in rugby

 

Hoping that the competition can now begin to do the talking at the Winter Olympics following months of media scepticism. Although, understandably, the negativity will surround the games, it would be nice to see all of that take a back burner and let the sport take centre stage.

 

Best of luck to all athletes, especially those in Team GB!

 

Hope everybody has a good weekend

 

Happy Punting!

 



ACE SPACE SET TO SAIL

Wouldn't usually do the blog on a Sunday but todays Musselburgh card is well worthy of one. Lots of competitive races at the course that always seems to be able to put something good on. I've chosen two races but really a selection could've been chosen for the majority of the races. That is credit to the quality of todays meet.

The 2:30 sees Broughton as a very short favourite. To me, he is far too short. Many John Ferguson do not come on after their first run, namely Dubai Prince, pulling up on his second run after hosing up on his National Hunt debut.

Two horses who I think are better choices are SPACE SHIP, who ran a decent race on his hurdling debut behind two horses that are at the head of the Triumph Hurdle betting, Plinth and Ivan Grozny. He was short of room when trying to make an effort that day and the fact that he has came from Ireland, along with the positive jockey booking in Sam Twiston Davies leads me to believe that he has a good chance.

The other pick is CLARCAM, another who has come over from Ireland. He is has been running in some of the best juvenile races in Ireland and although he doesn't like he's top class, he may prove to have enough to win a race like this. Its a really nice race, thats for sure.

The 3:30 is a wide open affair, disappointing that Strongpoint doesn't run as he'd surely of gone close. Sametegal has a chance but the price has gone. Yorkist has zoomed up the weights and Clever Cookie may not be good enough. I've gone for LYVIUS, although it is a little tentative. He won for me in a nail-biting finish at Kempton, so there is a bit of sentiment attached to this. The eight pound rise worries me a little but the front two were a mile clear when he won last time out and Geraghty in the saddle once again adds to his chances. He should run well in what is a wide open affair.

Other horses that should run well although with no bet is Racing Pulse in the 1:30, and Witness in Court and Top of the Range (in the same race).


Ireland in the rugby for me today.

The four teams that played yesterday didn't impress me greatly, which leads me to believe that if Ireland play their A-game, the way they pushed New Zealand so close recently, they could be the ones to beat in the competition.

Hope everybody has a good Sunday and...

Happy Sunday Punting!

I'M SOLL-D ON THE IDEA

Yet another weekend that has been hit by a deluge of rain, but thankfully the big fixtures have managed to remain on, with credit having to go to the clerk's of the course and the groundstaff at the racecourses. However, there is no way of avoiding the fact that the ground will be bottomless, so it will have to be factored in when choosing the selections.

The 3:35 at Sandown sees a lot of horses with chances, but the standout to me is SOLL, who has course and distance (around a specialist course) and will revel in the mud. A big brute of a horse whose last two wins came on heavy ground, you also have to remember that he came a hugely creditable seventh in the Grand National. This was ran on beautiful spring ground, definitely not in his favour. His first run since April's National saw a respectable performance, finishing less than five lengths behind the winner, again in ground probably firmer than he's ideally want. A massive chance.

My other selection at Sandown is FINE PARCHMENT, in the 3:00. Quite simply, he's won three in a row, has form on soft ground (hopefully heavy will not prove a problem) and has won at the course. Favourite Tatenen would seem to have ground doubts judging by performances previous. King Edmund won last time out, but average performances before that cannot be forgotten. Aachen's form is very inconsistent and may struggle come the business end of the race and may as well mention the last of the quintet, Tchang Goon, who looks way out of his depth this afternoon.

The West Wales National sees Mountainous going after a double of Welsh-based Nationals, hoping to follow up his Welsh National success at Chepstow. However, I'm going for horse who has form on heavy, should be staying on when others have cried enough and races off of a featherweight. This horse is SMOKING ACES. He ran well in the Sussex National at Plumpton on heavy ground and a lengthy trip. Providing that hasn't taken anything out of him, he would have a big chance. Of the others, Mountainous carries a much bigger riding weight than he did when winning at Chepstow so that makes life tougher for him, Emperors Choice's form looks average and Alfie Spinner has conditions to suit but he hasn't won since 2011 and that is a concern.

A venture onto the all weather at Lingfield this afternoon sees a tip in the 1:45. This is COMPTON PRINCE. He's now back down to the weight he won his first race off and ran with credit last time out. He has the impressive (not for much longer) conditional Robert Tart in the saddle claiming three pounds and at around 10/1, looks a decent price. Another horse at those odds who could run well is One Way Or Another, who is another that has slipped down to an attractive weight, although I'm convinced he wants further than this; he seems to be a horse who does most of this work in the final furlong, albeit its often too little too late.

There's even a chance to have a dabble in Ireland today. I am a massive fan of the Stuart Crawford stable, especially their record with mares in bumper races. TWENTYTWOS TAKEN seems like a horse who can fit that bill, judging by her debut demolition job, when routing the opposition by ten lengths. This is a race of high quality for the grade, but I think my selection has what it takes to make herself victorious in this race.

Enjoy your weekend

Enjoy the start of the Six Nations too.

And...

Happy Punting!