COMMEMORATE THE WAR AT SANTA ANITA

Tonight/today (depending on where you live) sees day one of the two day Breeders Cup meeting, held once again at Santa Anita. There's a nice mixture of American and European horses which make for some mouthwatering races. There are four races to be analysed so without further ado...


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

The British battalion look strong in this race. Charlie Hills' COMMEMORATIVE has progressed with every race, the last of which being an impressive victory in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes. The form of that race looks fairly strong and he should be able to make his presence felt here. Aidan O'Brien always does well with his horses in this race and WAR ENVOY could well be capable of extending the master of Ballydoyle's run of good finishers. He has been highly tried this year but he always seems to run a good race. His last two runs, (the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and the Jean-Luc Lagadere at Longhchamp) have both suggested that the mile would suit, as he has stayed on towards the end of the race whilst running good races in the process. There are major doubts as to whether Hootenanny's stamina will hold out, the rest of the American horses look much of a muchness looking at their form. All horses that have won this have had at least three races which would rule out the Godolphin owned, American trained Imperia.

Commemorative (pink hat)

War Envoy (foreground)

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1)

Goldencents should prove too good for these but he is not a price that I would be interested in. As for the rest, FED BIZ has got some winning form over the favourite so could be the best of the rest. Tapiture could also prove a danger although he may be slightly out of his depth here.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)

In this race, I think it's the European horses that look a little short of what's required. Qualify's form does not look overly strong and may struggle from the widest draw of all whilst Osaila's past performances also do not look good enough to beat a few of these, namely SUNSET GLOW. She ran very well behind top 2 year old filly Cursory Glance at Royal Ascot and has run well in her races since that. Her form looks head and shoulders above the rest and should be right there at the finish. Another horse who may run well is RAINHA DA BATERIA. Her win at Keeneland last time out shows she is in good form and could surprise a few at a double figured price.

Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1)

It was very tough choosing between UNTAPPABLE and Close Hatches in this but I've gone for the former, purely because Close Hatches' poor run last time out has to be a big worry. Their form is very even but Untappable's partnership with Rosie Napravnik is solid and she has held all fillies before her that she has raced against, the only time she was beaten was against male horses. At a price, the consistent TIZ MIDNIGHT could also be worth noting. Her form is not far behind the leading two.


Hope everybody enjoys the racing


Happy Punting!

OSCAR TO CAINE OPPOSITION

Here are some quick fancies for today's racing.

Kempton 3:20- ZULU OSCAR won a bumper on Kempton's synthetic surface back in February. On that day, he traveled very easily and put the race to bed fairly nicely once he hit the front. It's a slight worry that this is his first start over hurdles but he looked a horse who would relish an obstacle. Harry Fry's strike rate at Kempton (4 wins from 10) is impressive, he has a big chance. He beat CHASE THE WIND in that Kempton contest. Warren Greatrex's horse has had a couple of starts over hurdles since and has looked relatively useful. He is also selected in this race.

Zulu Oscar

Kempton 4:25- There is no doubting that The New One should be winning this doing cartwheels but some of Nigel Twiston Davies' big players (Splash Of Ginge, Ballybolley) did not fire at all on their first run of the season. Now The New One is clearly on a different level to them but I'm going to oppose him with FORGOTTEN VOICE. He too is a smart hurdler and with connections of Geraghty and Henderson, he needs to be respected. They usually dominate Kempton's National Hunt fixtures.

Bath 4:45- MIDNIGHT DANCE was well backed on debut to run a big race. She finished a promising fifth that day, looking as though she would come on for the run. This looks a weaker race and one she looks well up to winning.

Naas 1:40- CENOTAPH is my selection from the Aidan O'Brien triumvirate as Seamie Heffernan rides which implies that he could be their main hope (although the betting currently suggests otherwise). Another who may need an eye kept on his is Ger Lyons' ENDLESS DRAMA. He is by star freshman sire Lope De Vega (sire of Dewhurst winner Belardo) and his jockey Colin Keane has a very good record at the track.

Naas 4:55- Donnacha O'Brien has made a flying start to his fledgling racing career, with a win in the Irish Cesarewitch aboard El Salvador being the highlight thus far. He is chosen to rack up another win with BLUE HUSSAR. His seven pound could prove valuable in trying t get this horse to regain the winning thread.

Enjoy your Sunday

Happy Punting

CHAMPIONS AND CHELTENHAM... CHEERS CHAPS!

Today is billed as the big finale to the British Pattern racing calendar. However, to many in the racing world, it has become somewhat of a damp squib (in more ways than one). The "damp" weather has made the ground extremely testing, resulting in some big players not taking their places. Taghrooda and Toronado are two big names that won't be appearing due to the ground. On top of this, with the likes of Kingman, Australia, The Grey Gatsby, Olympic Glory, Rizeena, Sole and Slade Power not being there for one reason or another, it could be argued that the day is not deserving of its "Champions" title, as some of the real Champions across all age and distance categories are not making their presence felt. But we cannot control who is there and who is not and there is no point in pontificating it too much. Instead we should enjoy the top quality racing on offer, where five horses are going to become "champions" and another is going to win a very competitive handicap which will earn the victor over £150,000. Not bad at all...

I'm going to go through the Ascot races in racecard order and to conclude, some races at Cheltenham will be previewed as they have their second meeting of the season.

1:45- Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

Although this is not a Group 1 race, it is one of the best races on the card. The involvement of the last two Ascot Gold Cup winners, Leading Light and Estimate, certainly makes for an exciting race. However, my fancy for this is a bit of an unknown entity. FORGOTTEN RULES has won his two races so far effortlessly. His first success was in a Punchestown bumper and his second was in a flat race against some fairly useful types. There is no doubting that this is a massive step up but his trainer would not have him entered here if he did not feel he had a chance. He is a really exciting prospect and could be anything. At a slightly bigger price, BIG ORANGE could go well. Longer distances have been the making of him this year and like his sire, Duke Of Marmalade, he seems to be improving with age. Again, similar to Forgotten Rules, there is no doubting that he needs to find plenty to win today but he deserves this step up in grade.

Forgotten Rules

2:20- Sprint Stakes (Group 2)

This race does look devoid of a top class sprinter and you could give a chance to half of the field. VIZTORIA has not had much luck as she's rarely had softer ground. She had it last time out, in a weaker race admittedly, where she won easily. She has it again and should not pose too much of a problem, her first two races were run on bottomless ground and she won them both. Twice in her formbook she has found Slade Power too good but she has not got him to worry about, she has a big chance.  GORDON LORD BYRON ran another brilliant race in the Foret on Arc day and he should put in another bold showing today. The ground is a slight worry though.

Viztoria

2:55- Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)

The first Group 1 race of the day but it lacks a proven performer at the level (Chicquita has not really done much since her Irish Oaks win). Last years winner Seal Of Approval lines up again but her form has been distinctly average this season and although she will relish the underfoot conditions, she is not a mare I can enthuse over much. She was beaten in the Park Hill Stakes by Silk Sari, a horse who I can take more seriously as she was devastating in victory that day but is another who is not entirely proven on ground like this. A horse who has been slowly coming back to form recently is CUBANITA. She beat the then soon-to-be multiple Group 1 winner Noble Mission in April which proves she has the class and she has her ground. If she is back to that form, she will be a big force against horses who may have cried enough before the business end of the race. Ryan Moore is a positive jockey booking. Admittedly, it is a worry that ALBASHARAH runs only seven days after her facile Newmarket victory but I am not going to desert her now. She won her maiden nicely on similar ground so you would hope that she will handle the ground. As for the rest, Chicquita is clearly class but enigmatic; the ground is a worry. Hadaatha is inexperienced but exciting; the ground may be too much for her too. Madame Chiang will like the conditions but may not be quite good enough and Tasaday may not see out the trip.

Cubanita

3:30- Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

David O'Meara has had an unbelievable season and one of the horses who contributed to this is CUSTOM CUT. It's safe to say that this gelding is in the form of his life as he chases his six-timer today. Every race he runs in he records a personal best and today would need another one of these to win. There is no denying that he is worth a shot in this race; were he to win, it would be some training performance. INTEGRAL has probably been the star older filly of the season with wins in the Falmouth and the Sun Chariot. She surprised many when she won the Falmouth on soft ground but today is a new level of soft and is unknown territory for her. She certainly has the class to win though.

Custom Cut

4:05- Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Cirrus Des Aigles. An incredible race horse. Consistent, tough, lovable. Every time he's looked down and out he has battled back to win big race after big race. If he won, there may not be a more popular winner on the day. 

Free Eagle. Three runs to date, only loss came at the hands of Australia. Looked world class when destroying a decent field at Leopardstown after an absence last time out. Connections think he is one of the best they have trained. Slight danger for me is the "bounce" factor given that the big break before his last run. Another worry is the bottomless ground. He is untried on it and this early on in his career, it may prove too much for him to handle.

If there was any horse competing here today that would have begged for this recent deluge it would be NOBLE MISSION. Front running tactics have been the making of him this season, scooping up Group 1's in England and France. If he can get his own way again then he might be hard to peg back. All this for a horse who for ages only had the label of "Frankel's brother". At a massive price, the grand old timer AL KAZEEM could run well. When he was notching up his Group 1 wins last year, trainer Roger Charlton said he wanted to keep him off firm ground if he could. He certainly will not face that today although there is a danger that this could be overly soft for him. The class is definitely there but whether the ability is these days is another matter. A big run would not surprise.

Noble Mission

4:45- Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)

Ascot's card concludes with the ultra-competitive and inaugral running of the Balmoral Handicap. One of my horses of the season, BARAWEEZ, takes his place. He has been superb this season and owes connections nothing. He and Colm O'Donoghue have struck a good partnership together and once again he takes the ride. The ground is a worry but he is in top form. Two horses who wont mind the ground are CHATEZ and LEVITATE. The former is a proven mudlark whilst the latter is well handicapped to win (runs off 90 due to five pound claimer Joe Doyle, which puts him below his last winning mark for the first time. 3 pounds lower to be exact.)

Some Cheltenham picks now...

3:45- DURSEY SOUND finished behind Mart Lane last time out but he is fancied to reverse the form. Barry Geraghty taking the ride is a positive. ME AND BEN could also go well for the talent Conor Shoemark. He won at the course in April.

4:25- Messrs Henderson and Geraghty team up with ACT ALONE. Never finishing outside the top 3, this gelding warrants respect. Forthefunofit rates the biggest danger.

5:30- Two for this concluding bumper. John Ferguson got a monkey off his back yesterday with his first Cheltenham winner courtesy of Commissioned which makes me more confident regarding ARABIC HISTORY. This Teofilo gelding has won both his starts comfortably so far and could be good enough to defy the double penalty. Philip Hobbs' bumper horses have been running very well lately so a chance is taken on INK MASTER.

Enjoy your Saturday

Happy Punting!

COVE TO SMUGGLE DEWHURST WIN

It seems every year the big British two year old races are held at either a different course or a different day and this year is no exception. The Dewhurst, Middle Park and the Fillies Mile are all being held on a Friday in what has been billed as "Future Champions Day". There's a selection or two for every race at Newmarket today plus a few fancies for Cheltenham's first fixture of the year. The National Hunt diehards will already be counting down the days to Cheltenham I'm sure!

The Dewhurst Stakes (4:00) initially revolved around two horses, Aidan O'Brien's Gleneagles and the current favourite Estidhkaar. However, Gleneagles was withdrawn at the 48 hour declaration stage after his demotion to third in the Jean-Luc Lagadere on Arc day (despite crossing the line first). Estidhkaar is clearly the classy horse in the race, showing contempt for almost every horse he's faced this season. However, a horse that interests me a lot is SMUGGLERS COVE. His form so far does not initially hit you as a Dewhurst winner, as he's only won a Listed race at Dundalk. But it was the manner in which won (by 7 lengths) that puts him firmly into the reckoning here. He races as though the soft ground would not be a problem and Aidan O'Brien could have sent plenty of other horses here today so it could be significant that he sends over this son of Fastnet Rock only seven days after his runaway all-weather success. A horse that has served me well this season is SECRET BRIEF so it would be foolish not to back him again. He owes me nothing and if he could get an easy lead he could push for a podium finish.

Smugglers Cove

The Middle Park (2:55) would appear to be all about the unbeaten Ivawood and providing he's up to form, he should win this. However, I'm opposing him with KOOL KOMPANY, who will love the ground and could be dangerous if he gets an easy lead and CAPPELLA SANSEVERO, who will also love the ground and warrants some respect with man of the moment Andrea Atzeni in the saddle.

The other Group 1 today is the Fillies Mile (3:25). Again, it should be a case of the favourite taking all the beaten as Lucida looked a smart prospect when she won the Rockfel last time out. But there are some other decent looking fillies in the field, namely Marsh Hawk and AGNES STEWART. Preference is for the latter, who won very nicely at Doncaster in her last run. Her form has stacked up very well so far, it will be a cracking little race for sure.

I'll go through the rest in racecard order.

1:50- Seven furlongs is clearly CONJURING's bag. She ran very well last time out over C&D and for some unknown reason she has been dropped two pounds for it. Admittedly the ground could be a worry but if she handles it, 16/1 could look very big. Fidelma Moon and Mystic Jade could be the biggest dangers.

2:25- A lot of the runners in the Cornwallis ran against each other in the Listed Rosebery Stakes at Ayr. There was not much between them that day, perhaps Fendale (who was 5th that day) may prove to be the best of them but I think he wants 6 furlongs and firmer ground. But I'm going to avoid all the horses in that race, instead taking a relative gamble on the Swedish raider VOLATILE. He completely destroyed his maiden field on his only run to date and although it is not known what he beat, he could not have done it much better. He could be anything in truth but is worth taking a chance on in my opinion.

4:35- Soft ground specialists BRETON ROCK and AL THAKHIRA have to be respected here and are both worthy of giving French raider Thawaany a run for her money.

5:10- Air Pilot could not have won much easier last time out but this is a different kettle of fish to what was quite an ordinary handicap in comparison last time out. MUTAKAYYEF comes back after a short break and has been very unlucky not to have won more of his races. This son of Sea The Stars could prove too classy if everything falls into place today.

And a few for Cheltenham.

2:05- I saw BYRON BLUE win at Worcester two starts ago and although it was an average race, he won at a canter and could surprise a few here it taking the course's unique tests.

3:15- RETURN SPRING loves it around Prestbury Park whilst HENRYVILLE has been running very well of late. Competitive handicap hurdle this is.

5:35- POETIC VERSE should give very talented claimer Dean Pratt a very good spin. He's nicely weighted and warrants respect for shrewd trainer John Quinn. Mountain King rates the biggest danger.

Enjoy your Friday

Happy Punting!

LUCK OF THE IRISH AT LINGFIELD

Here are some midweek tips for your delectation.

Lingfield 4:10- ANGLO IRISH has an imperious record on the all weather, having never been outside the places and never been beaten more than a length on the surface. He's in the form of his life having won his last two races and even though it is a competitive race today, he should make his presence felt.

Anglo Irish (white)

Another horse who could go well at Lingfield is TOOT YOUR FLUTE (2:30). He ran a solid race from the front last time out, in what was quite a hot maiden over course and a furlong further than today. He did not appear to see out the trip from the front that day so the drop to seven furlongs today should help.

1:40 Nottingham- Ralph Beckett has had a good season and is doing well with his two year olds. He can ready them to win first time out so SHE IS NO LADY deserves to be respected for a sire in Lope De Vega who has had a very good freshman season with the limited runners in the UK he has had.

6:45 Kempton- Hopefully it'll be a case of deja vu for Mr Beckett as ENGAGING SMILE appears to have a good chance. She is nicely bred and the money that has come on for her this morning could be significant. Another horse who is regally bred is NOBLEST, who will be aided by Ryan Moore in the saddle.

7:15 Kempton- Jazzi Top should be winning this but at the prices, HANA LINA should not be as big. These two horses ran in different divisions of the same Newmarket maiden and they were both beaten by a similar distance. They both showed signs of greeness and will surely come on for their respective runs but, in my opinion, Hana Lina's race looked stronger so that's why she is being chanced in this. An interesting runner is MAKRAMAH, who's sire Elusive Quality has a good record with horses winning first time out on the polytrack and Richard Hannon can get them ready on debut too. She is related to the classy Hoarding so that is something to note as well. The main danger is Wild Storm.

7:45- Saeed bin Suroor's juveniles always need to be feared and ERSHAADAAT is no exception. He has one of the best strike rate's with both horses at Kempton and horses winning first time out. This Cape Cross is nicely bred and should run a decent race. Eastern Romance is the danger.

Enjoy your day

Happy Punting!

NO NEARLY ABOUT CAUGHT'S CHANCES

Saturday's feature race is at Newmarket and is the race well known for being ran in two counties. It is of course, the Betfred Cesarewitch (3:50). I have managed to whittle down the 34 runner field (at the time of writing) to 4, headed by Hughie Morrison's NEARLY CAUGHT. He has not been the easiest to place this season as he ideally wants softer ground and on many of the occasions where he has been due to run, the ground has come up firm. However, this should not pose a problem this time around with the ground currently being good and the prospect of expected rain will only aid his cause. His runs have been a little hit and miss this season but his last two runs have not been without promise. His second place behind Noble Silk was solid enough form and his 8th place in the Ebor last time out was very respectable. He appears to be drawn in the right area (high-20) and the jockey booking of Ryan Moore is a big plus. You obviously need luck in this 34 runner raid but he seems to have a lot in his favour and should run a good race.

Nearly Caught

Judging by previous renewals, it would appear that to win the Cesarewitch, you need a draw in the top half and at least one decent run (placed/not beaten far) over 2 miles, so my other three selections are RHOMBUS (who will also need some rain), DIGEANTA (who will have to improve on his last run but will stay the trip for master jumps trainer Willie Mullins) and LADY KASHAAN (who could out run odds considering she ran a solid race behind a useful handicapper on her latest run).

Newmarket have some other great races on their card today including the inaugural running of the ultra competitive looking Betfred TV Stakes (3:10), which is a heritage handicap. I am quite keen on FAMOUS KID in this. Being a half brother to strong stayers Kirkless and Mastery, he should be a fairly useful animal and he has looked exactly that since being stepped up to 11 furlongs two runs again then a mile and a half last time out. Richard Hughes appears to be building quite a rapport with him having been successful aboard him for his last two victories, he should go very close. Another horse to keep a close eye on is REWAAYA. She would appear to need some rain being by Authorized and her performances have shown exactly that. If the rain comes, she will be a big player.

Newmarket's opener, the Autumn Stakes (2:05) looks another head scratcher despite there only being 10 horses facing the judge. In my opinion, Future Empire looks underpriced at 5/2. He looked quite an awkward ride in the Solario Stakes, with James Doyle having to niggle him along a fair way out that day and also, he faces some potentially top quality opposition today. Godolphin's apparent second string STRONG CHEMISTRY recorded a facile victory when winning at the second time of asking on Kempton's all weather surface and although he probably did not beat much that day, he could not have done it much better and certainly looked like a talented juvenile. His first run was not without promise either, in which he came a length second behind the already once raced Bravo Zolo. These two runs, together with jockey William Buick's confidence in him (he has ridden him on both occasions) make him a force to be reckoned with. BARTHOLOMEW FAIR is another horse who won smartly at the second time of asking and the fact that his trainer has put him into a race of this grade on only his second run could indicate that he has some ability as Luca Cumani is not usually a trainer known for putting his horses in at the deep end early on in their careers. Khalid Abdullah's Commemorative rates the biggest danger to my two in this classy race.

The race at 2:40 to be held on the Rowley Mile is a Listed race for fillies and mares. The last three renewals of this race have all been won by four year olds, so it may pay to ignore the classic generation here (the likes of Vow, Kailani, Rock Choir and Group 1 winning Thistle Bird were all beaten in this at 3), although Talmada and Blue Waltz are both with chances on bare form. Saeed bin Suroor's ALBASHARAH would appear to have an outstanding chance based on her three-quarter length second behind Hadaatha at Yarmouth last time out (a horse who has since finished third in the Group 1 Prix L'Opera on Arc day). She had not seen a race course for 418 days before that race so providing she does not "bounce", she should be cherry ripe for this. At a price, Andrew Lloyd-Webber's TOAST OF THE TOWN could surprise a few. She shed her maiden tag at the ninth time of asking at Wolverhampton last time out but she may prove to be the sort that can get plenty of wins under her belt providing she could get the first, which she has now got. Being by Duke Of Marmalade, she would be a likely sort who would get better at four so maybe she is capable of running a decent race in this.

Finally for me at Newmarket is the fillies' maiden (4:25). Hamdan Al Maktoum's second string judging by cap colours is SHARQEYIH but I think she could be capable of belying her status as playing second fiddle to Lashkaal. She is a half sister to the smart pair Odooj, who won first time out and Ertijaal, who won three of his first four races (he lost on debut to champion two year old Toormoore). This would indicate that she should know her task today. My other pick is William Haggas' other representative, BELLA NOUF. She too is well related, being a half sister to the useful sorts Lady Nouf, Nouriya and Yuften. Richard Hughes is a good jockey booking, she could go close here if she has any of her siblings ability. Colour Party probably rates the biggest danger.

Over at York, their highlight is the Coral Sprint Trophy (3:30), a handicap. Now there is no doubting that Aetna deserves to be favourite but 7/2!!! In a 20 runner field!!! It's just ludicrous in my opinion. She is unlikely to get it easy out there, as these competitive sprint handicaps have a hurly burly nature to them. Two that could go well at mammoth prices are ASHPAN SAM (25/1), who will like the soft ground and has useful claimer Kieran Shoemark taking a valuable seven pounds off and 2013 Stewards' Cup winner REX IMPERATOR (33/1), who, admittedly, has lost his way a little since then but he runs below that mark for the first time in a handicap today (a gargantuan 9 pounds less to be precise) so surely warrants respect. If he can recapture some of that quality, he could run a stormer.

In York's 2:20, SOVIET ROCK could be hard to beat in what is an interesting contest. His last run was solid enough and he would not be adverse to cut in the ground. Out of the others, Sennockian Star will be a tough nut to crack.

The Rochingham Stakes (2:55), has lots a little bit of it's excitement with the withdrawal of Charming Thought. MATTMU was second behind the awesome juvenile Limato 7 days ago at Redcar but he has not got him to worry about today. He seems incapable of running a bad race so another bold showing should be anticipated. TERUNTUM STAR won very easily last time out, a performance of that ilk will see him in with a chance today.


And we have also a top National Hunt card from Chepstow...

4:20- Dawalan gets his ground and should win this if he finds the form that saw him win two races early on in his British career last term but I'm going to oppose him with AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA. He has not shown much on the racecourse so far but this is a handicap so only has to carry a lightweight 10 stone 4 pounds. Richard Johnson takes the ride which is also of interest.

Past winners of the 4:20 have had at least 5 races in Britain over hurdles and was having it's seasonal reappearance.

5:30- If past winners of this race are anything to go by, you need a horse who is between 6 and 8 years old who is running off a mark of 136 or less. Although THE ITALIAN YOB was pulled up on his last three starts last year, it seemed as though something was amiss with him. If Nick Williams has sorted those problems out, he could be of interest. Barry Geraghty riding and doing 10-7 fascinates me too. Could do something, could do nothing... My other selection is TRAFALGAR. He will strip fitter for his recent Worcester run and only has to run of the featherweight 10-0. The stable have been among the winners recently and it would not be hard to see Trafalgar adding to Dan Skelton's winners list. Highland Lodge is a terrible price at 5/2. In a race with a field size such as this and given his latest runs.


Hope everybody has a great Saturday


Happy Punting!

MY THREE FILLIES FIGHTING FOR ARC FAME

So we are finally here. After months of ante post chatter, the big race is finally upon us. The Prix De L'Arc Triomphe. Although the race is missing a few big names that could have made an appearance, namely the leading middle distance 3 year old colts Sea The Moon and Australia, it is still a top quality affair. I'm going to talk about how I ruled 17 of the field out, leaving me with my final 3.

Firstly, since 2005, seven 3 year olds and two 4 year olds have won the race. So any horse older than 4 was first to be left alone (Al Kazeem, Gold Ship, Just A Way).

To go further into that stat, since 2008, all winners have been three bar one, Solemia (33/1), who was four. So I decided to only look at 3 year old horses, after all, there are plenty of them and I need to eliminate as many as possible from my plans. (Flintshire, Ruler Of The World, Ivanhowe, Spiritjim, Treve, Chicquita, Siljan's Saga).

So that's dealt with a large chunk of the field, now it's time to look at the draw. Since 2005, only one horse has won from a double figure draw and that was Treve (and to be honest, nothing looked like beating her that day. She was just imperious.) Even though some of those single figured wins were in smaller fields than this year's, it should still pay to look at horses drawn in the bottom half. (Montviron, Kingston Hill, Free Port Lux, Harp Star)

N.B. Notice I have left out Taghrooda from that list, more on that later...

So, we are now left with

ECTOT
PRINCE GIBRALTAR
AVENIR CERTAIN
DOLNIYA
TAPESTRY

Two more I am ruling out are Prince Gibraltar and Dolniya. Prince Gibraltar looked a force at the start of the season but he has been slightly disappointing in recent runs and does not look quite good enough for this. As for Dolniya, who ran a hugely respectable race in the Vermeille last time out, she again might not be good enough to challenge against the best of these, although she looks smart in her own right.

So we're down to 3 (4 including Taghrooda). I do not want to back any more than three so had to scratch one more from my list. After some more scrutinising of recent renewals, it occurred to me that all three year old winners since 2005 had won a Group 1 prior to the event, so Ectot is also ruled out. (He's only won a Group 2 with the Prix Niel.)


After all of that, my Arc 3 are AVENIR CERTAIN, TAPESTRY and TAGHROODA.

AVENIR CERTAIN- has not received the credit she duly deserves, this unbeaten filly has done nothing wrong at all. Dual classic winner who is hard to pass once she hits the front. Has lowered the colours of other fillies with lofty reputations and big connections, she should run a big race. Stall 1 is a slight worry as she could get boxed in early but if she breaks well, then she's one to fear.

TAPESTRY- this filly has had a rollercoaster of a season, which started with a last place finish when favourite in the 1000 Guineas and her latest run being hugely disappointing when second last in a Group 1 over a mile. However, there are excuses for those sub-standard runs (trainer error for the Guineas no show and the Matron Stakes disappointment being down to her running at a mile, which is clearly not to her liking). It is her runs in between that make her a fancy for this, which include a luckless second in the Irish Oaks and a super display in ending the unbeaten run of Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks. Ryan Moore was at his best on the Knavesmire that day and it is encouraging that he takes the ride again. The Arc distance will suit her far more than the mile, she will be staying on until the finishing line. Whether she's quite good enough is a slight unknown but on her best form, she could surprise a few.

And...

TAGHROODA- I said earlier that I'd mention her. Although her draw is far from ideal and my system would rule her out on that basis, not backing her was simply not on my radar. I backed her when she won both her Oaks and King George and as a result has become a real favourite of mine. But it's not just that, it's the fact that she's by the superstar that is Sea The Stars, who has made an impressive start to fatherhood. It would be nice to see an offspring of his emulate his Arc win of 2009. It's the fact that she has an amazing temperament and does not seemed to be phased by anything as a result. It's the fact that she has such good connections, as trainer John Gosden and jockey Paul Hanagan have formed such an incredible bond with her and it you would be hard pushed to think of two more deserving folk in racing to win this illustrious title. There would be a slight concern regarding her last run, where she lost her unbeaten tag at the hands of Tapestry but there were excuses for that run and she is likely to perform a lot better on Sunday.

Tapestry (left) and Taghrooda (right)

Fillies have won the past three Arc's, hoping that one of my three can make it four year's running. Let's just hope that it's a great race with not too many hard luck stories (some are inevitable unfortunately) and a hugely worthy winner.


Enjoy your Sunday


Happy Arc Punting!

FEAR THE FABRE FILLY FORAY

Well what can I say? This weekend of flat racing is just mouthwatering. Saturday's offerings are top quality and then to put the icing and the cherry and the chocolate sprinkles on top of this cake, there's Sunday's card at Longchamp which features what is arguably the best flat race of the year courtesy of the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe. Anyway, we have got Saturday first to pick apart first, where my tips are picked with soft ground in mind as heavy rain is forecast in the afternoon. So without further ado...

We will kickstart with the Newmarket, where the feature race is the Sun Chariot Stakes (3:30). I wrote last week about Andre Fabre's impeccable record with fillies on the Rowley Mile when promoting High Celebrity's chances in the Cheveley Park and although she could only manage third, Fabre's record there still stands. He sends three over for this; one of whom is current favourite Fintry, who is likely to be cherry-ripe for this following her solid victory in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown. However, this is a big step up for the Godolphin owned filly and I think she is worth taking on with Fabre's two other representatives, MISS FRANCE and ESOTERIQUE. Both of these fillies have won on the Rowley Mile this year, which proves that they will be able to deal with the undulations of this unique course. 1000 Guineas winner Miss France last ran in the Prix Rothschild, where she came second behind Esoterique, so their recent form is no worry either. The latter has also ran again since, finishing a not too distant fourth behind three useful colts in the Moulin. Their run in the Rothschild brings Integral into the mix, as she finished a disappointing third at odds on that day. This clearly did not show this year's Falmouth Stakes winner to her full ability and she is sure to put in a better performance this time around although 3/1 could be a little short in this field. Last year's winner Sky Lantern has looked a shadow of her former self this season and would have to up her game if she is to feature here but you would not rule it out. Kiyoshi bounced back to form at Doncaster last time out but she will have to step up on that and the same goes for Hamdan Al Maktoum's Etaab, who narrowly won at hot handicap over course and distance only 8 days ago.

Esoterique (left) and Miss France (right). 

There are also some Tattersalls Millions races at Newmarket today, where as the race name suggests, there is plenty of money on offer. In the 2:20, SECRET BRIEF warrants respect as he goes for his second win in a race under the Tattersalls Millions banner. He showed he was extremely game that day and once he hit the front, he was not for passing. A repeat performance will see him go close. OUTLAW COUNTRY is another interesting contender based on his cosy success at the second time of asking at Leicester. He could be anything in truth but the booking of Pat Smullen as a jockey suggests that he's thought quite highly of by the boys in blue.


The Oh So Sharp Stakes (2:55) was won last year by Miss France but I would be surprised if this year's renewal threw up another 1000 Guineas winner. Yodelling looked a smart filly based on her debut win but it is unknown if she will progress from that run as some Godolphin horses have a tendency to leave their ability in their first run. To me, 5/2 is short enough about her. Local Time has her first run on turf (he three runs so far have all be on a synthetic surface.) so that is an unknown regarding her. Shagah has run to a respectable level so far but is looking a little exposed now and she has only won an average maiden. A horse who could surprise a little is MAJESTIC MANNER. She was very green on debut but followed that up with a nice victory in what was quite a decent Lingfield maiden. If she can step up on that run, she could make her presence felt in this contest. Of the rest, Taaqah could run well but her trainer James Tate's record at the course (0-25) would be enough to put me off her.

The maiden (4:05) is a race that looks full of decent two year olds, as it does every year. The one's with experience dominate the betting and rightly so. Aloft and Archery Peak both ran solid maidens and both looked like they would be winning races soon. However, I'm going to look for one at a bigger price so the selection is RARE RHYTHM. He's the third shortest in the market (at the time of writing) which suggests that he may possess some ability.


Over at Ascot, STEPS would have a great chance in the opener (2:05) if the forecasted rain came but should still run well even if it stayed dry. Listed races seem to be his level so should easily be capable of holding his own. Andrea Atzeni on board is a big plus too. Muthmir could have been running in the Abbaye on Arc day which evidently shows what his connections think of him. He could potentially trounce the opposition but is not a price I would be interested in. Justice Day seems more at home over six furlongs whilst Ladies Are Forever should not be ignored although she too may ideally want six furlongs and would not want the heavens to open.

Another sprint, this time over six furlongs with the Bengough Stakes, is at 3:15. This Group 3 contest looks wide open, with last years winner Tropics heading the market. He's not the most consistent sort however so I'd rather look elsewhere. After quite some time off the track following a failed period at stud, RECKLESS ABANDON seems to be coming back to something like his two year old best, finishing behind the smart filly Mecca's Angel last time out. Kevin Manning looks a positive booking and I'm hopeful that he could go very close here. Another fascinating contender is SIGNS OF BLESSING, who could quite easily have run in Sunday's Abbaye having had close form with Rangali, Catcall and Stepper Point. This implies that his connections must think he has a big chance here. Any rain would do this French raider the world of good. Others with chances include Intibaah, who will need rain but would have to defy a 147 day absence and Ayr Gold Cup winner Louis The Pious, who seemed to have everything fall right for him that day; he may not be so lucky on Saturday. He will want the rain to avoid the Berkshire venue.

The Challenge Cup (3:50) is as competitive as ever, with many having chances. I have managed to whittle the field down to three. HEAVEN'S GUEST, a consistent performer who'd like cut in the ground, MORACHE MUSIC, who needs cut but is a force to be reckoned with if he gets it and SIRIUS PROSPECT, a smart sprinter who could make his presence felt. Blaine will want it firm and the trip is an unknown (although he should cope fine), Prince's Trust recorded a facile victory last time out but this is a different kettle of fish and Almargo is another who will want the rain to stay away.

In short, Ascot's card features very competitive races where the weather will play a pivotal role in the day's goings on.


Redcar host their annual highlight, the 2 Year Old Trophy, on Saturday. Limato is a slightly surprising entry as his form is head and shoulders above the rest although there are bits of value to be found as a result of this. MATTMU has not run a bad race thus far, REALTRA likewise and SEA WOLF could be overpriced if it rains a little.

In the 3:45, it could be siding with horses who have form on softer ground so TAWHID and PENITENT are chosen. Muteela has not ran on ground softer than good to soft, Patentar was well beaten when he ran on it. Cape Factor will welcome the rain but may not be good enough.

Finally, the Redcar maiden at 4:20 should be won by either the once raced Purple Rock or Makfi's brother Muhtadim. But I'm going to oppose the pair with LONE STAR BOY, who is bred to be very speedy being by Starspangledbanner and out of a mare by Compton Place.


Enjoy your Saturday


Happy Punting!