I'm going to go through the Ascot races in racecard order and to conclude, some races at Cheltenham will be previewed as they have their second meeting of the season.
1:45- Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
Although this is not a Group 1 race, it is one of the best races on the card. The involvement of the last two Ascot Gold Cup winners, Leading Light and Estimate, certainly makes for an exciting race. However, my fancy for this is a bit of an unknown entity. FORGOTTEN RULES has won his two races so far effortlessly. His first success was in a Punchestown bumper and his second was in a flat race against some fairly useful types. There is no doubting that this is a massive step up but his trainer would not have him entered here if he did not feel he had a chance. He is a really exciting prospect and could be anything. At a slightly bigger price, BIG ORANGE could go well. Longer distances have been the making of him this year and like his sire, Duke Of Marmalade, he seems to be improving with age. Again, similar to Forgotten Rules, there is no doubting that he needs to find plenty to win today but he deserves this step up in grade.
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| Forgotten Rules |
2:20- Sprint Stakes (Group 2)
This race does look devoid of a top class sprinter and you could give a chance to half of the field. VIZTORIA has not had much luck as she's rarely had softer ground. She had it last time out, in a weaker race admittedly, where she won easily. She has it again and should not pose too much of a problem, her first two races were run on bottomless ground and she won them both. Twice in her formbook she has found Slade Power too good but she has not got him to worry about, she has a big chance. GORDON LORD BYRON ran another brilliant race in the Foret on Arc day and he should put in another bold showing today. The ground is a slight worry though.
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| Viztoria |
2:55- Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
The first Group 1 race of the day but it lacks a proven performer at the level (Chicquita has not really done much since her Irish Oaks win). Last years winner Seal Of Approval lines up again but her form has been distinctly average this season and although she will relish the underfoot conditions, she is not a mare I can enthuse over much. She was beaten in the Park Hill Stakes by Silk Sari, a horse who I can take more seriously as she was devastating in victory that day but is another who is not entirely proven on ground like this. A horse who has been slowly coming back to form recently is CUBANITA. She beat the then soon-to-be multiple Group 1 winner Noble Mission in April which proves she has the class and she has her ground. If she is back to that form, she will be a big force against horses who may have cried enough before the business end of the race. Ryan Moore is a positive jockey booking. Admittedly, it is a worry that ALBASHARAH runs only seven days after her facile Newmarket victory but I am not going to desert her now. She won her maiden nicely on similar ground so you would hope that she will handle the ground. As for the rest, Chicquita is clearly class but enigmatic; the ground is a worry. Hadaatha is inexperienced but exciting; the ground may be too much for her too. Madame Chiang will like the conditions but may not be quite good enough and Tasaday may not see out the trip.
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| Cubanita |
3:30- Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
David O'Meara has had an unbelievable season and one of the horses who contributed to this is CUSTOM CUT. It's safe to say that this gelding is in the form of his life as he chases his six-timer today. Every race he runs in he records a personal best and today would need another one of these to win. There is no denying that he is worth a shot in this race; were he to win, it would be some training performance. INTEGRAL has probably been the star older filly of the season with wins in the Falmouth and the Sun Chariot. She surprised many when she won the Falmouth on soft ground but today is a new level of soft and is unknown territory for her. She certainly has the class to win though.
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| Custom Cut |
4:05- Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Cirrus Des Aigles. An incredible race horse. Consistent, tough, lovable. Every time he's looked down and out he has battled back to win big race after big race. If he won, there may not be a more popular winner on the day.
Free Eagle. Three runs to date, only loss came at the hands of Australia. Looked world class when destroying a decent field at Leopardstown after an absence last time out. Connections think he is one of the best they have trained. Slight danger for me is the "bounce" factor given that the big break before his last run. Another worry is the bottomless ground. He is untried on it and this early on in his career, it may prove too much for him to handle.
If there was any horse competing here today that would have begged for this recent deluge it would be NOBLE MISSION. Front running tactics have been the making of him this season, scooping up Group 1's in England and France. If he can get his own way again then he might be hard to peg back. All this for a horse who for ages only had the label of "Frankel's brother". At a massive price, the grand old timer AL KAZEEM could run well. When he was notching up his Group 1 wins last year, trainer Roger Charlton said he wanted to keep him off firm ground if he could. He certainly will not face that today although there is a danger that this could be overly soft for him. The class is definitely there but whether the ability is these days is another matter. A big run would not surprise.
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| Noble Mission |
4:45- Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)
Ascot's card concludes with the ultra-competitive and inaugral running of the Balmoral Handicap. One of my horses of the season, BARAWEEZ, takes his place. He has been superb this season and owes connections nothing. He and Colm O'Donoghue have struck a good partnership together and once again he takes the ride. The ground is a worry but he is in top form. Two horses who wont mind the ground are CHATEZ and LEVITATE. The former is a proven mudlark whilst the latter is well handicapped to win (runs off 90 due to five pound claimer Joe Doyle, which puts him below his last winning mark for the first time. 3 pounds lower to be exact.)
Some Cheltenham picks now...
3:45- DURSEY SOUND finished behind Mart Lane last time out but he is fancied to reverse the form. Barry Geraghty taking the ride is a positive. ME AND BEN could also go well for the talent Conor Shoemark. He won at the course in April.
4:25- Messrs Henderson and Geraghty team up with ACT ALONE. Never finishing outside the top 3, this gelding warrants respect. Forthefunofit rates the biggest danger.
5:30- Two for this concluding bumper. John Ferguson got a monkey off his back yesterday with his first Cheltenham winner courtesy of Commissioned which makes me more confident regarding ARABIC HISTORY. This Teofilo gelding has won both his starts comfortably so far and could be good enough to defy the double penalty. Philip Hobbs' bumper horses have been running very well lately so a chance is taken on INK MASTER.
Enjoy your Saturday
Happy Punting!
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