Firstly, since 2005, seven 3 year olds and two 4 year olds have won the race. So any horse older than 4 was first to be left alone (Al Kazeem, Gold Ship, Just A Way).
To go further into that stat, since 2008, all winners have been three bar one, Solemia (33/1), who was four. So I decided to only look at 3 year old horses, after all, there are plenty of them and I need to eliminate as many as possible from my plans. (Flintshire, Ruler Of The World, Ivanhowe, Spiritjim, Treve, Chicquita, Siljan's Saga).
So that's dealt with a large chunk of the field, now it's time to look at the draw. Since 2005, only one horse has won from a double figure draw and that was Treve (and to be honest, nothing looked like beating her that day. She was just imperious.) Even though some of those single figured wins were in smaller fields than this year's, it should still pay to look at horses drawn in the bottom half. (Montviron, Kingston Hill, Free Port Lux, Harp Star)
N.B. Notice I have left out Taghrooda from that list, more on that later...
So, we are now left with
ECTOT
PRINCE GIBRALTAR
AVENIR CERTAIN
DOLNIYA
TAPESTRY
Two more I am ruling out are Prince Gibraltar and Dolniya. Prince Gibraltar looked a force at the start of the season but he has been slightly disappointing in recent runs and does not look quite good enough for this. As for Dolniya, who ran a hugely respectable race in the Vermeille last time out, she again might not be good enough to challenge against the best of these, although she looks smart in her own right.
So we're down to 3 (4 including Taghrooda). I do not want to back any more than three so had to scratch one more from my list. After some more scrutinising of recent renewals, it occurred to me that all three year old winners since 2005 had won a Group 1 prior to the event, so Ectot is also ruled out. (He's only won a Group 2 with the Prix Niel.)
After all of that, my Arc 3 are AVENIR CERTAIN, TAPESTRY and TAGHROODA.
AVENIR CERTAIN- has not received the credit she duly deserves, this unbeaten filly has done nothing wrong at all. Dual classic winner who is hard to pass once she hits the front. Has lowered the colours of other fillies with lofty reputations and big connections, she should run a big race. Stall 1 is a slight worry as she could get boxed in early but if she breaks well, then she's one to fear.
TAPESTRY- this filly has had a rollercoaster of a season, which started with a last place finish when favourite in the 1000 Guineas and her latest run being hugely disappointing when second last in a Group 1 over a mile. However, there are excuses for those sub-standard runs (trainer error for the Guineas no show and the Matron Stakes disappointment being down to her running at a mile, which is clearly not to her liking). It is her runs in between that make her a fancy for this, which include a luckless second in the Irish Oaks and a super display in ending the unbeaten run of Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks. Ryan Moore was at his best on the Knavesmire that day and it is encouraging that he takes the ride again. The Arc distance will suit her far more than the mile, she will be staying on until the finishing line. Whether she's quite good enough is a slight unknown but on her best form, she could surprise a few.
And...
TAGHROODA- I said earlier that I'd mention her. Although her draw is far from ideal and my system would rule her out on that basis, not backing her was simply not on my radar. I backed her when she won both her Oaks and King George and as a result has become a real favourite of mine. But it's not just that, it's the fact that she's by the superstar that is Sea The Stars, who has made an impressive start to fatherhood. It would be nice to see an offspring of his emulate his Arc win of 2009. It's the fact that she has an amazing temperament and does not seemed to be phased by anything as a result. It's the fact that she has such good connections, as trainer John Gosden and jockey Paul Hanagan have formed such an incredible bond with her and it you would be hard pushed to think of two more deserving folk in racing to win this illustrious title. There would be a slight concern regarding her last run, where she lost her unbeaten tag at the hands of Tapestry but there were excuses for that run and she is likely to perform a lot better on Sunday.
 |
| Tapestry (left) and Taghrooda (right) |
Fillies have won the past three Arc's, hoping that one of my three can make it four year's running. Let's just hope that it's a great race with not too many hard luck stories (some are inevitable unfortunately) and a hugely worthy winner.
Enjoy your Sunday
Happy Arc Punting!
No comments:
Post a Comment