NO NEARLY ABOUT CAUGHT'S CHANCES

Saturday's feature race is at Newmarket and is the race well known for being ran in two counties. It is of course, the Betfred Cesarewitch (3:50). I have managed to whittle down the 34 runner field (at the time of writing) to 4, headed by Hughie Morrison's NEARLY CAUGHT. He has not been the easiest to place this season as he ideally wants softer ground and on many of the occasions where he has been due to run, the ground has come up firm. However, this should not pose a problem this time around with the ground currently being good and the prospect of expected rain will only aid his cause. His runs have been a little hit and miss this season but his last two runs have not been without promise. His second place behind Noble Silk was solid enough form and his 8th place in the Ebor last time out was very respectable. He appears to be drawn in the right area (high-20) and the jockey booking of Ryan Moore is a big plus. You obviously need luck in this 34 runner raid but he seems to have a lot in his favour and should run a good race.

Nearly Caught

Judging by previous renewals, it would appear that to win the Cesarewitch, you need a draw in the top half and at least one decent run (placed/not beaten far) over 2 miles, so my other three selections are RHOMBUS (who will also need some rain), DIGEANTA (who will have to improve on his last run but will stay the trip for master jumps trainer Willie Mullins) and LADY KASHAAN (who could out run odds considering she ran a solid race behind a useful handicapper on her latest run).

Newmarket have some other great races on their card today including the inaugural running of the ultra competitive looking Betfred TV Stakes (3:10), which is a heritage handicap. I am quite keen on FAMOUS KID in this. Being a half brother to strong stayers Kirkless and Mastery, he should be a fairly useful animal and he has looked exactly that since being stepped up to 11 furlongs two runs again then a mile and a half last time out. Richard Hughes appears to be building quite a rapport with him having been successful aboard him for his last two victories, he should go very close. Another horse to keep a close eye on is REWAAYA. She would appear to need some rain being by Authorized and her performances have shown exactly that. If the rain comes, she will be a big player.

Newmarket's opener, the Autumn Stakes (2:05) looks another head scratcher despite there only being 10 horses facing the judge. In my opinion, Future Empire looks underpriced at 5/2. He looked quite an awkward ride in the Solario Stakes, with James Doyle having to niggle him along a fair way out that day and also, he faces some potentially top quality opposition today. Godolphin's apparent second string STRONG CHEMISTRY recorded a facile victory when winning at the second time of asking on Kempton's all weather surface and although he probably did not beat much that day, he could not have done it much better and certainly looked like a talented juvenile. His first run was not without promise either, in which he came a length second behind the already once raced Bravo Zolo. These two runs, together with jockey William Buick's confidence in him (he has ridden him on both occasions) make him a force to be reckoned with. BARTHOLOMEW FAIR is another horse who won smartly at the second time of asking and the fact that his trainer has put him into a race of this grade on only his second run could indicate that he has some ability as Luca Cumani is not usually a trainer known for putting his horses in at the deep end early on in their careers. Khalid Abdullah's Commemorative rates the biggest danger to my two in this classy race.

The race at 2:40 to be held on the Rowley Mile is a Listed race for fillies and mares. The last three renewals of this race have all been won by four year olds, so it may pay to ignore the classic generation here (the likes of Vow, Kailani, Rock Choir and Group 1 winning Thistle Bird were all beaten in this at 3), although Talmada and Blue Waltz are both with chances on bare form. Saeed bin Suroor's ALBASHARAH would appear to have an outstanding chance based on her three-quarter length second behind Hadaatha at Yarmouth last time out (a horse who has since finished third in the Group 1 Prix L'Opera on Arc day). She had not seen a race course for 418 days before that race so providing she does not "bounce", she should be cherry ripe for this. At a price, Andrew Lloyd-Webber's TOAST OF THE TOWN could surprise a few. She shed her maiden tag at the ninth time of asking at Wolverhampton last time out but she may prove to be the sort that can get plenty of wins under her belt providing she could get the first, which she has now got. Being by Duke Of Marmalade, she would be a likely sort who would get better at four so maybe she is capable of running a decent race in this.

Finally for me at Newmarket is the fillies' maiden (4:25). Hamdan Al Maktoum's second string judging by cap colours is SHARQEYIH but I think she could be capable of belying her status as playing second fiddle to Lashkaal. She is a half sister to the smart pair Odooj, who won first time out and Ertijaal, who won three of his first four races (he lost on debut to champion two year old Toormoore). This would indicate that she should know her task today. My other pick is William Haggas' other representative, BELLA NOUF. She too is well related, being a half sister to the useful sorts Lady Nouf, Nouriya and Yuften. Richard Hughes is a good jockey booking, she could go close here if she has any of her siblings ability. Colour Party probably rates the biggest danger.

Over at York, their highlight is the Coral Sprint Trophy (3:30), a handicap. Now there is no doubting that Aetna deserves to be favourite but 7/2!!! In a 20 runner field!!! It's just ludicrous in my opinion. She is unlikely to get it easy out there, as these competitive sprint handicaps have a hurly burly nature to them. Two that could go well at mammoth prices are ASHPAN SAM (25/1), who will like the soft ground and has useful claimer Kieran Shoemark taking a valuable seven pounds off and 2013 Stewards' Cup winner REX IMPERATOR (33/1), who, admittedly, has lost his way a little since then but he runs below that mark for the first time in a handicap today (a gargantuan 9 pounds less to be precise) so surely warrants respect. If he can recapture some of that quality, he could run a stormer.

In York's 2:20, SOVIET ROCK could be hard to beat in what is an interesting contest. His last run was solid enough and he would not be adverse to cut in the ground. Out of the others, Sennockian Star will be a tough nut to crack.

The Rochingham Stakes (2:55), has lots a little bit of it's excitement with the withdrawal of Charming Thought. MATTMU was second behind the awesome juvenile Limato 7 days ago at Redcar but he has not got him to worry about today. He seems incapable of running a bad race so another bold showing should be anticipated. TERUNTUM STAR won very easily last time out, a performance of that ilk will see him in with a chance today.


And we have also a top National Hunt card from Chepstow...

4:20- Dawalan gets his ground and should win this if he finds the form that saw him win two races early on in his British career last term but I'm going to oppose him with AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA. He has not shown much on the racecourse so far but this is a handicap so only has to carry a lightweight 10 stone 4 pounds. Richard Johnson takes the ride which is also of interest.

Past winners of the 4:20 have had at least 5 races in Britain over hurdles and was having it's seasonal reappearance.

5:30- If past winners of this race are anything to go by, you need a horse who is between 6 and 8 years old who is running off a mark of 136 or less. Although THE ITALIAN YOB was pulled up on his last three starts last year, it seemed as though something was amiss with him. If Nick Williams has sorted those problems out, he could be of interest. Barry Geraghty riding and doing 10-7 fascinates me too. Could do something, could do nothing... My other selection is TRAFALGAR. He will strip fitter for his recent Worcester run and only has to run of the featherweight 10-0. The stable have been among the winners recently and it would not be hard to see Trafalgar adding to Dan Skelton's winners list. Highland Lodge is a terrible price at 5/2. In a race with a field size such as this and given his latest runs.


Hope everybody has a great Saturday


Happy Punting!