Wednesday 31 December 2014

2015- CHEER FOR CHELTENHAM

Horse racing's New Year detox comes in the form of a quality card at the home of National Hunt racing, Cheltenham. Selections for all seven races are coming your way.

12:10- This looks a very warm race to kick start proceedings. Different Gravey could well prove to be exactly that- his debut over Rules was very solid and improvement is to be expected. However, 2/1 in a race of this calibre is short enough. Neil King's stable star Zeroeshadesofgrey is on quite the run at the moment. He hasn't beaten much but he's beat it well. There's no knowing how good he really is, hopefully today's race can give us an insight into his ability. Brother Tedd has clocked up two wins at Kempton for Phillip Hobbs but he is another who faces his stiffest hurdles task to date. THOMAS BROWN is one that certainly appeals at the prices. He appears to need a sound surface, which he should almost certainly be getting. His hurdles runs have been full of promise, the latest of which being a respectful second behind the potentially smart Out Sam. He was giving the winner 8 pounds that day and sloppy jumps at a couple of the obstacles were enough to stop him from winning. He's on level weights to the main players in this field and providing he jumps with more efficiency, he's got a big chance. At the prices, recent Sandown winner AS DE MEE has a squeak, although he'll have to improve on that run.

12:45- THEATRICAL STAR will see out the trip well and could well take the glory in a race where many of the competitors lack either a recent win or decent form. He could well take this en route to a tilt at the Grand National.

1:20- CHAMPAGNE WEST faces a difficult challenge courtesy of Ptit Zig but he's looked a smart prospect over chase fences. His last two successes have come at Prestbury Park and he could well be capable of making it three in a row. Ned Stark could make his presence felt but may prefer softer ground.

Champagne West


1:55- Another chance is taken on CAID DU BERLAIS. Hopefully he can get over his recent poor performance when pulling up here at the water jump (he looked in trouble before that). Slicker jumper and anything close to his Paddy Power performance should see him go mightily close here. Grade 1 placed ROLLING ACES has been knocking on the door a lot recently, he deserves a victory. The talented Sean Bowen takes five pounds off- he's certainly weighted well for it. Here's hoping Paul Nicholls can win the race. Likely threats include Splash of Ginge, Hunt Ball and Tenor Nivernais.

2:30- ULZANA'S RAID has looked as game as they come in his two latest successes over the course and he looks well up to taking this contest. KNIGHT OF NOIR had a tough task off top weight on seasonal reappearance last time out. The proposition looks a lot easier this afternoon.

3:05- This is a fascinating little contest. Vaniteux has the best recent form in the book with his second behind The New One in the International Hurdle. Barry Geraghty chooses him over twice Grade 1 winning Beat That, he will more than likely need this race. 2012 Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby looks more at home back over hurdles whilst Bet365 Hurdle winner Cole Harden has a chance, although it did appear as though he beat two horses at Wetherby that day that really needed the run under a smart front running ride. SILSOL is an unexposed sort at this level and may not prove good enough but he's beaten all before him in his last few races and is worthy of the step up in class.

Silsol (foreground)

3:40- Past winners of this race have all had past experience so even though Camlann and Barneby may well be useful, it could pay to stick with horses that have seen the course before. WISHFULL DREAMING, a half brother to Wishfull Thinking and DANDY DUKE, a solid second on debut, are selected.

Away from Cheltenham, Musselburgh hold an exciting looking card. In their Hogmaneigh Hurdle (2:10), Fred Winter winner at the Festival HAWK HIGH clearly has the best form on offer and is 2 from 2 in handicap hurdles whilst STEPHANIE FRANCES could make her presence felt off bottom weight.

Exeter 2:55- LAST SHADOW won nicely last time out and AP does the steering. EXMOOR MIST won when well fancied and if he can replicate that; leaving his form from last season behind him, he has a chance.

Exeter 4:00- Nicky Henderson's horses always need to be monitored in the bumper sphere so half brother to Don Poli MAD ABOUT THE BOY is chosen. The booking of AP McCoy aboard MIDNIGHT GYPSY looks positive, whilst Bella and Midnight Mint have chances too.

And in Fairyhouse's bumper (3:40) point winner JETSTREAM JACK is the pick.

Have a great New Years Day


Happy Punting!


2014- A BRIEF REVIEW

A quick review of the year's racing that's just been.

Flat horse of the year

TAGHROODA- For me, it has to be the wonder mare that is Taghrooda. A superb attitude with coolness to match. So relaxed in everything she did, she provided jockey Paul Hanagan with some great moments and helped thrust her owner Hamdan Al Maktoum back amongst the biggest flat players around once again.

Her facile victory in the Epsom Oaks was followed by arguably the performance of the season when she slammed the likes of Telescope and Mukhadram under the summer sun at Ascot in the King George. Her first defeat came in the Yorkshire Oaks at the hands of Tapestry under the imperious Ryan Moore and her racing career was capped off with a hugely respectable third in the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe. Although it's sad to see her leave the racecourse at three, she will no doubt make a beautiful broodmare and help the Sea The Stars legacy flourish.

Taghrooda
Jump horse of the year

It was a little harder deciding this. Balthazar King's heroic performances when winning the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and finishing in the runners up spot in the Grand National warrant major respect. More Of That's rise from a humble handicapper at the back end of 2013 to World Hurdle victor was extraordinary but my National Hunt of the year accolade goes to Grand National winner PINEAU DE RE. For so long I've pined to back the winner of the big race and 2014 was the year of my first punting success in the race; for that, he'll always hold a special place in my heart. Expertly ridden by the understated Leighton Aspell, he slowly crept into the race and once they entered the elbow, he just wasn't for stopping. An amazing success for Dr Richard Newland and an even sweeter one for myself given that the Good Doctor doesn't train too far away from me. Always good to put Worcesterhire on the map!

I Adore this photograph

Flat ride of the year

Ryan Moore's magic aboard the likes of Grey Mirage at the start of the year to Protectionist towards the end of it, with Tapestry, Euro Charline and many more sandwiched in between. Richard Hughes remained as cool as a proverbial cucumber aboard Sole Power and Rosie Napravnik bowed out of the saddle (temporarily hopefully) with a power packed ride aboard Untapable in the Breeders Cup Distaff. I, along with everybody in the racing world I'm sure, send my best to her with her pregnancy. 

But for my ride of the year, you need to head back to England. It's Fran Berry's beautiful hold up ride aboard DOMINATION in the Ascot Stakes. He had the strong stayer so far back in the field he'd have needed a telescope to spot the leader. However, slowly but surely, he crept closer aboard Charles Byrnes' raider and in the final furlong and a bit, Berry said go and he flew home. Still having plenty to do but doing it with so much ease. Brilliant ride.

Domination (left)

Jump ride of the year

There have been some truly awesome rides over the sticks this year. Richard Johnson has had a sublime year with some exquisite efforts aboard old timers Menorah and Wishfull Thinking, as well as some sterling efforts aboard Garde La Victoire and Goulanes. In truth, there's been too many to mention- Dickie has been incredible. We can't forget other jockey's though- AP McCoy's ride aboard Taquin De Seuil in the JLT was truly special whilst Barry Geraghty was seen to best effect getting the best out of Lyvius in a Kempton handicap hurdle way back in January. Young Conor Shoemark had a vintage hour at Cheltenham in April with two wonderful rides. Firstly, front-running tactics were put to great effect aboard the gallant, one-eyed wonder As I Am. Then, he showed his versatility as he expertly steered Me And Ben home under hold up tactics this time. This young talent looks sure to have a top 2015. Sam Twiston-Davies also deserves a mention. He's faced a lot of totally undeserved criticism over social media but his rides aboard As De Mee and Aqalim at the back end of the 2014 definitely kept those idiots quiet.

2014 was really a year where amateur jockeys shone. Robbie McNamara (who's since become professional) gave Spring Heeled a solid ride at Cheltenham but it's to another amateur rider for my jump ride of the year...

Sam Waley-Cohen is a jockey that often provokes discussion, conjuring criticism with his actions in the saddle. Even myself, at times, have been a little critical of Waley-Cohen. However, his ride aboard WARNE in the Foxhunters Chase, shut a lot of people up (myself included). I vowed never to unduly lambaste him again after this incredible front-running ride. It appeared as though he went off too quickly, creating a big gap between himself and the rest of the pack from an early stage. As the pack gained on him, it seemed as though the race was lost but he asked his mount for more and from then onwards he bounded forwards to win easily. Once again, Waley-Cohen was seen to best effects over the National fences. He gets horses into a good rhythm over the daunting obstacles and Warne was no exception.

You could say Waley Cohen "bowled" me over aboard Warne...
One for 2015

On my frequent visits to Wolverhampton Racecourse, I always try to unearth a hidden gem if possible. Last year, I gave you Euro Charline, who went onto win the Beverly D Stakes at Arlington after winning a Dunstall Park nursery. This time, I give you YEATS MAGIC. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess his sire; this shows he has the potential to stay over longer trips. I was quite surprised to see him win over a mile on debut, given his breeding, but he did so nicely. He raced as though a longer trip would be ideal, 1 mile 4 furlongs or further could well prove to be his optimum trip. This lovely looker is in the very capable hands of John Gosden, so I'd hope that he could be geared towards the St Leger in September as his trainer has a superb record in the race. The race he won was well above average for the track, so hopefully he too can prove to be a little above average. Fingers crossed.

Could multiple Ascot Gold Cup winner Yeats have
bred a Classic winner?



Hoping everybody has a prosperous, brilliant 2015. All the best for the year ahead


Happy 2015 punting!


Thursday 25 December 2014

AFTER THE TURKEY, GORGE ON GEORGE

After the presents have been opened, the roast dinner devoured and the seasonal television watched, we've the small matter of Christmas: Mark II; courtesy of Boxing Day's King George. It looks a fairly wide open renewal, with at least half a dozen of the field having a realistic chance of crossing the winning post first.

What they're all competing for...

Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite based on his Betfair Chase victory. He seems to have the beating of MENORAH, Dynaste and Cue Card based on that Haydock run. Dynaste will come on for that run given it was his first of the season but it was Cue Card's second and you have to wonder if he is the same horse as a couple of seasons ago. His brace of runs this term have been rather lacklustre; finishing fourth on both occasions at Exeter and Haydock. There's been a little bit of money coming on for him, the quickening of the ground being cited as the reason for this. However, he had fairly decent ground in the Haldon Gold Cup but that did not bring about a performance befitting a winner of this race. He's not the same horse as he was in my opinhion and is likely to come up short here. As for Menorah, he could be the one out the Betfair Chase who can give Silviniaco Conti the most to think about. He was the closest to Paul Nicholls' runner that day, competing with him until the final flight and he could be up to doing it again. Richard Johnson's suspension isn't ideal to his chances but his Kempton record has to be admired, winning three from four at the course. Double Ross unseated in the Betfair Chase and looks out of his depth here.

Menorah (blue)
It could well pay to side with horses that have not crossed paths with Silviniaco Conti. Willie Mullins always seems to have big hitters in the big races, his representative here is the Rich Ricci owned CHAMPAGNE FEVER. This gallant, front-running grey has slight stamina doubts but if he can boss proceedings from the front under Ruby Walsh, he may be able to get into a rhythm at his fences and therefore would prove hard to peg back. A horse who ran on the same day as the Betfair Chase, but at Ascot was AL FEROF. Despite an absence, he traveled supremely well when beating the ever consistent yardstick Somersby. Providing he's put previous problems behind him and puts in a performance as good, if not better than that Ascot run, the King George could be well be heading to Ditcheat, courtesy of the stable's second string. Wishfull Thinking finished behind John Hales' contender in the Amlin Chase so he might find it tough out there. As for the final two, although Johns Spirit and Wonderful Charm are smart performers in their own right, they look as though they may be outclassed here

Champagne Fever (pink)

Al Ferof
There are other Grade 1 races at Kempton on St Stephens Day, including the Christmas Hurdle (2:35). Favourite Faugheen may well prove to be extremely hard to beat, he's held all before him in his career so far in immaculate fashion. But for some interest in the race, SIGN OF A VICTORY could well be the one who poses the horse dubbed 'The Machine' the most to think about. Nicky Henderson's record in this race is very impressive- past winners include Darlan and My Tent Or Yours. His win in an Ascot handicap hurdle was a lot better than the bare form suggests as Barry Geraghty didn't lay a finger on him. He won cheekily on the bridle to score by half a length but the result was NEVER in doubt. The form was franked when Dawalan (second that day) scored at Aintree recently. He'll have to step up massively on what he's shown so far but that's definitely not out of the question- he could be the one to give Faugheen the most to think about. Recent Fighting Fifth winner Irving may prove more at home over an extra four furlongs, he may lack the pace that the two aforementioned horses possess.

Sign Of A Victory (black hat)

The Feltham or Kauto Star Novices' Chase (2:00) looks to have some top quality chasers for the future lining up. Favourite Saphir Du Rheu won with minimum fuss last time out and is probably deserving of his market position, He looks as though the 3 mile trip will prove no challenge but it is an unknown and ultimately, in a race with some equally smart looking types, 11/10 is rather short. It could well be the case that another Ditcheat second string could be taking the winners prize- VIRAK is unbeaten over fences this season and although he hasn't beaten much, he's done it with aplomb. Competition for the lead may scupper his chances though. A horse that promised plenty as a novice hurdle and matched that on his chase debut was CONEYGREE. It seemed as though chasing would really be the making of him when he won at Newbury in November and, although the "bounce" factor is a definite worry, he'll stay until the cats come home.

Virak
Coneygree (white hat)

The day's proceedings kick off  with a tasty novice hurdle (12:50). Jollyallan has looked like a smart novice in his two starts over hurdles whilst Sempre Medici won effortlessly on hurdles debut but so many horses of Willie Mullins' win on their hurdles debut against far inferior opposition so it is hard to judge just how useful he could be, especially in comparison to the rest of his battalion. A viable alternative to these two could well be John Ferguson's ZIP TOP. Clearly we don't know if he'll take to jumping but he was a top 2 year old on the flat (don't forget he was second behind Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy) and his trainer reports him to be flying on the gallops. It's interesting that Barry Geraghty is riding him and not Nicky Henderson's Bringithomeminty and he receives 8 pounds off the two market leaders. Interesting race, the winner is likely to feature prominently in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle betting at Cheltenham.


1:25 Kempton- STELLAR NOTION has never finished outside the first two over Rules and another consistent run should be expected. Albeit, this is tougher than anything he has faced before but natural progression from his last run should see him go close here. A fascinating contender in this is KATGARY. His first two runs this season have been poor in truth but there is a possibility that chase fences could conjure some improvement out of him. He's likely to have improved from his Greatwood run- if he hadn't, you wouldn't fancy Paul Nicholls to run him here today. This isn't the strongest race so if he can revert back to his form that saw him go down a narrow second in this year's Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, he should go close. His trainer has always held him in fairly high regard.

There's only the matter of 11 more English and Irish cards to contend with today. I'm going to take a quick glance at some of Wincanton's races...

1:05- CHANCE ENCOUNTER won over course and distance nicely enough last time out and is taken to win again. He only has to carry the featherweight of ten stone tomorrow, more than a stone less than anybody else. Top jockey Tom Scudamore takes the ride, one of only two rides he takes before taking the ride aboard Dynaste in the King George.

1:40- The other ride that Scudamore goes to Wincanton for is Batavir. He's clearly of interest given that it looks as though he's gone there for the purpose of riding this horse and he only has to carry 6 pounds extra for his recent Ascot win. However, his price is 13/8 is pretty appalling bearing in mind that he is racing against some useful types, namely SOUTHFIELD VIC. The mount of capable claimer Sean Bowen, he looked in good spirits when demolishing the field in a Taunton novices' hurdle over 3 miles. A replication of that should see him go very close.

3:55- KERROW came second behind a well fancied horse on debut. A similar performance will see him go close today whilst Nicjy Henderson's horses always warrant respect in this sphere so WILLIAM HENRY is also chosen. General Ginger may prove the biggest threat.

The Irish cards are headed by Leopardstown, where the highlight is probably Vautour in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase (2:55). He should not be beaten but purely for interest, the selection is CHANCOL, who won for me nicely last time out. He may not prove to be a proper Grade 1 performer but he's won three in a row so is the pick.


Hope everybody has a great Boxing Day!


Happy Punting!



Friday 12 December 2014

A MATCH CAID IN HEAVEN

Friday's racing at Cheltenham threw up some thrilling encounters. The grand old timer Starluck got his head in front for the first time in over 18 months in a narrow finish with Henry Daly's Goohar. In an equally nail-biting last furlong (especially as I backed Ulzana's Raid!) Alan King's raider battled tooth and nail with Cesarewitch winner Big Easy to win the narrowest of margins. There were also comprehensive wins for Benbane Head, under a canny ride from the very talented Conor Shoemark, Kings Palace, who cemented his credentials as a serious RSA contender for the Festival come March and Any Currency, who has always ran stormers over the cross country course without winning, so today's rout was richly deserved. Whilst Saturday's racing doesn't quite deliver on field numbers, their is still plenty of quality animals on show.

In what has to be one of the most pompously named races of all time, the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (2:00) could well be another prize that heads to Ditcheat, courtesy of CAID DU BERLAIS. This looks a very average renewal of the race, there only looks to be one that can give him a worry- more on the other horse later. As for Paul Nicholls' contender, he seemed to strike a chord with Sam Twiston Davies last time out when he gave him an amazing ride to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month. A five pound rise seems very fair and this is a far weaker race. The tongue tie that was applied for that recent win for the first time is on again and he really appears to have improved massively as a horse over the summer. A big chance. The only horse who, to me, could be the fly in the ointment is BARRAKILLA. He's well weighted against some of these; namely No Buts. Based on their recent Sandown race, I make Barrakilla 9 pounds better than No Buts but due to No Buts' impressive win recently, he is the one who carries more weight- 5 pounds more in fact. Niceonefrankie and Darna are two others that look up against it at the weights.

Caid Du Berlais with his jubilant team following his Paddy
Power Gold Cup victory

Barrakilla

There's more graded action at 3:10 with the International Hurdle, which is a Grade 2 contest. It appears to be a two horse race between The New One and VANITEUX- the rest don't look good enough quite frankly. On bare form, The New One should win but at the prices, I will always go for the one which is better. However, Nigel Twiston-Davies' horse isn't entirely bombproof. He never wins his races with as much authority as you'd imagine a horse at the prices he is should do. He can be capable of putting in the odd sketchy jump, which may not matter too much here. But, he does have to give Vaniteux 8 pounds, which will not be straightforward. Nicky Henderson's horse would surely have been closer to Garde La Victoire in the Greatwood if he'd have taken a different route- admittedly that form wouldn't be enough to challenge The New One but Henderson has reported that he's improved a lot since his novice days and his Greatwood run was his first of the season, so he'll be entitled to come on for it. Some people think he's got a chance, others do not. I just think he'll give The New One something to think about and is worth backing at the prices.

Vaniteux

N.B-Just for the record, I don't think The New One would have won this year's Champion Hurdle if he didn't suffer interference. It was too far before the finish to have made that much of a difference in my opinion.

The final Graded race of the day at Prestbury Park comes in the form of the Relkeel Hurdle (3:45). 2012's Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby is the class animal in this but 13/8 is short enough about him. Volnay De Thaix could also prove to be a smart performer in time but he has got something to prove at this level. 15/8 seems short enough about him, especially bearing in mind that LAC FONTANA beat him in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree. Volnay De Thaix was beaten just over six lengths into fifth that day and he might have to go some to reverse the form. Lac Fontana then went on to run a respectable race behind the almighty Vautour at Punchestown which was followed up by a seasonal reappearance behind the equally almighty Faugheen at Ascot. He'll come on for that and together with the application of first time cheekpieces, he could in fact be the one to beat today.

Lac Fontana following his County Hurdle victory

The final Graded race at Cheltenham to be reviewed is the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (2:35). Blaklion lost his unbeaten tag on his last outing when beaten here by Parlour Games. He's currently nearing evens which is way too short about him for my liking. The enigmatic Port Melon was further behind that day in third whilst Parish Business gave the highly touted Fletchers Flyer a good race last time out. However, BINGE DRINKER has already proven himself to be a strong stayer who seemingly won't shirk away from a battle. He's got quite a bit to find on ratings with Blaklion but he looks to be improving; he is chasing his fifth win in a row. AP McCoy looks a positive booking although Rebecca Curtis always seem to get top jockeys booked for her horses when it matters.

Even the opener, despite not being a graded race, is a quality affair. This juvenile hurdle (12:15) has some potentially exciting types in it. A recurring theme, but I think Hargam should not be peppering evens, mainly because he was beaten by Golden Doyen last time out whereas KAREZAK beat Golden Doyen on his hurdle debut. You could argue that Alan King's horse was a little disappointing when being narrowly beaten at odds on last time out but he was slightly hampered at the business end of the race and did stay on well, which suggests that he will appreciate the extra half furlong. A first time visor could eke out some improvement as well. Stars Over The Sea also has a chance but his jumping can be haphazard at times and he hasn't faced a proper challenge yet; he'll face one on Saturday and there has to be question marks as to whether he's a battler, If he is, he has to have a chance. At a slightly larger price, MR GALLIVANTER could go well. Similar to Stars Over The Sea, he's an ex-flat horse who's unbeaten in two starts over hurdles and hasn't yet faced any meaningful challenge. He should be double the price David Pipe's entrant is.

1:25- The front two in the market will take all the beating here but there'll be opposed with KARINGA DANCER who was in the process of running a decent race when unseating here recently. Although the trip may be a little on the sharp side today, he has a chance.

Doncaster hold a graded race of their own with the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (2:15). Despite his French form looking patchy to say the least, you'd think Paul Nicholls would have improved MARRACUDJA somewhat or else he wouldn't be pitching him in at the deep end on his British debut. Also, you have to bear in mind that French form can so often no get replicated over here so fellow Gallic import Peace And Co may not be worthy of his odds on status, especially giving Marracudja 7 pounds.

And a quick preview of the 8:15 at Wolverhampton...

It can be worth looking for unusual little attributes in races such as these because they are all quite similarly matched. Even the smallest thing can make a big difference. For instance, SAN QUENTIN is back up to twelve furlongs today, which could prove vital. He won over that distance 3 starts ago but has ran his last two races over 3 furlongs less. The step back up should suit him well. Another to keep an eye on is ETAAD. A former Hamdan Al Maktoum inmate, he didn't quite cut the mustard there and has since been transferred to Ireland. He has not really done much there really in three starts but you should always be wary of horses that run in Ireland that come over to England for low grade races, especially at the Dunstall Park venue. Gary Mahon's 7 pound claim means he carries 15 pounds less than his last run which was 185 days ago so he could have improved considerably since then. First time cheekpieces also add to his chances, albeit enigmatic chances but he cannot be discounted. I actually spotted him when he was 40/1 at bet365, he's now 5/1... Musikhani is another who cannot be overlooked, with first time blinkers and Adam Kirby booked. The all weather surface is an unknown though.

Enjoy your Saturday


Happy Punting!


JUNIOR TO ROLE BACK THE YEARS

Any Cheltenham card is bound to throw up some decent races that provide some top quality action and today's offerings should be no exception. One race that looks exciting is the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (2:40). Despite the absence of cross country stalwart Balthazar King, the race still has some decent horses in it. One of these is UNCLE JUNIOR. Even though his last victory came in this race two years ago, he still showed he has some ability when he finished a tight second behind Balthazar King over the course last time out. A repeat performance will see Willie Mullins' 13 year-old go very close once again. A horse who could go well at a price is PASQUINI ROUGE. He ran well in this race last year and good course experience is vital for these races. Jockey Jan Faltejsek will be hoping he can work his cross country magic like he does aboard Orphee Dee Blins so often in the Velka Pardubicka. Favourite Big Shu has an obvious chance but may want the ground a little bit softer than today's conditions.

Uncle Junior

Pasquini Rouge (orange and blue silks)

1:40- This race could well be between Lough Kent and VINTAGE VINNIE. Lough Kent's second behind stablemate Theinval was hardly franked when the latter was well beaten at Sandown last week. He's also proven to be a tricky customer so may find it difficult to give Rebecca Curtis' raider 16 pounds. Vintage Vinnie has looked like a non stayer in recent runs; the return to a shorter trip and slightly better ground may prove enough to see him victorious today.

2:10- bet365 Gold Cup winner Hadrian's Approach may well come on for today's run, as may COWARDS CLOSE. But with the irresistible form messrs Nicholls and Twiston Davies are in, he cannot be ignored. Another featherweight who should go extremely well is THE OULD LAD, who could well be capable of completing the hat-trick.

3:15- Big Easy deserves to be favourite for this but he faces some stiff challenges today, ULZANA'S RAID being one of them. He won impressively at the course last time out and he stays. Alan King's inmate looks well capable of winning his fourth race in a row.

3:45- This race could well feature some smart novices. MILES TO MEMPHIS should have a better chance on a sounder surface; providing his disappointing Leicester third on botttomless ground when odds-on hasn't taken too much out of him, he could be a big player today. He looked a useful prospect up until that recent defeat. SOME PLAN looked fairly smart when winning at Southwell recently and he too is worth his chance. Padge and Clondaw Banker also warrant respect. A nice race, as so many renewals of this are.


Enjoy your Friday


Happy Punting!

Sunday 7 December 2014

WISH AND WONDER FOR PETERBOROUGH WIN

Todays sees Huntingdon's big race day take place, the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase. Nicky Richards' Eduard is probably a deserving favourite but my only slight reservation regarding him is that his trainer's horses can often just come up short when plying their trade at southern racecourses, as oppose to northern races. WISHFULL THINKING was imperious on his seasonal re-appearance when decimating the opposition in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. You could argue he was slightly disappointing in the Amlin 1965 Chase following that but he was beaten by an Al Ferof who appeared to be back on the top of his game and yesterday's Tingle Creek second Somersby. That is not bad form when you look at it. He beat Rajdhani Express that day; he re-opposes today but there should be no reason as to why the form should be reversed. The Nicholls juggernaut seems to be hitting top gear now with Vibrato Valtat and Dodging Bullets scooping the Grade 1, 2 mile races at Sandown 24 hours ago. His WONDERFUL CHARM looks to have a decent chance in this. He won well at Newton Abbot on his first start of the season then was soundly beaten by Don Cossack. The fact that Gordon Elliot's raider is joint favourite for the Group 1 at Punchestown today shows how much talent he has, so you could argue that Wonderful Charm ran to form. This task is slightly easier today and therefore needs respecting. French Opera doesn't look the horse he once was and De Boitron could be tilting at windmills here.


Wishfull Thinking

Wonderful Charm


2:35 Huntingdon- Birch Hill will no doubt come on for his Rules debut at Cheltenham but he was beaten that day by AQALIM. At the prices, John Ferguson's representative is worth taking on; his bumper form behind Ballybolley is pretty solid form. Hannah's Princess could prove a threat given her weight allowance but she will need to step up on her previous efforts over hurdles.

3:05 Huntingdon- Henderson and Geraghty always need to be respected as a combination in both bumpers and races at Huntingdon. This, together with the fact that ROBINS REEF is running in a Listed race on her debut suggest that she has a big chance. Connections of this Robin Des Champs filly must think plenty of her to run in a race like this so early on in her career.

Punchestown hold the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase today. This is a race that features this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup victor, LORD WINDERMERE. He will undoubtedly come on for the run, or runs as last season showed but at 10/1, you've got to show the reigning Gold Cup champion a little respect. A horse who has form over Lord Windermere, based on last season, is TEXAS JACK. 2 miles 4 furlongs is his optimum trip but is another who will come on for the run. In honesty, the race should probably be between the two market principals; out of those two the selection would be Don Cossack- Boston Bob's reappearance was a little flat in my opinion. He will obviously come on for that run but he could take at least one more run, based on that Down Royal run, to return to peak fitness. But at the prices, neither of these two are chosen. Remember, my two selections are clearly no slouches.

12:30 Punchestown- Rock The World is far too short a favourite in my eyes. Instead, a value alternative is A SIZING NETWORK. He won a novices hurdle recently and if he can build on that, he should be well up to giving the favourite a fright.

And finally, Cork also host another fantastic Irish card. This is headlined by the Kerry Group Hilly Way Chase, a Grade 2 contest. Favourite Twinlight is a talented individual but he can be capable of putting in some mediocre performance so is a risky proposition given his place in the market. Felix Yonger is also useful but he has been finding a few too good for him lately. ALDERWOOD has some smart form at 2 miles and his second behind Champagne Fever last time out could prove to be very smart form. He gets on well with AP McCoy so hopefully he can produce a win out of the 2013 Grand Annual winner. DAYS HOTEL is a massive price for a horse that has decent performances in him (he won this race two years ago).

1:15 Cork- This is a very exciting novices hurdle but it's a shame that No More Heroes has been withdrawn. Gigginstown could still taste success in this though, courtesy of ALPHA DES OBEAUX. Highly touted by trainer Mouse Morris, he won his latest outing with minimal fuss. Black Hercules is obviously the one to beat but my selection could well be up to it.

Enjoy your Sunday

Happy Punting!

Saturday 6 December 2014

BULLETS TO PEAK FOR CREEK

In the lead up to this weekend's feature race, Sandown's Tingle Creek Chase, I had a look at some of the best 2 mile chasers around. There was definitely a vintage crop of them around in the late 90's and early 2000's, with the likes of Moscow Flyer, Flagship Uberalles, Edredon Bleu, Direct Route, Azertyuiop and Well Chief all battling against each other to make for some awesome spectacles. In recent years, the scene has mainly been dominated by one horse at a time, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre two horses that spring to mind. As it stands, the former has not quite achieved as much as the latter, despite Nicky Henderson's inmate arguably being the classier animal. Hopefully he'll be back (and back to his almighty best) at some point as his sheer brilliance is certainly being missed. This year's renewal of the Tingle Creek certainly looks devoid of a star name like the ones listed previously but it makes for a wide open affair...

The market is headed by Balder Succes. He's been beaten by God's Own in his last two races and there's no real reason as to why the form should be reversed in my opinion. As for God's Own, although he's done very little wrong lately, there may be at least one horse in the field who proves too classy for him. This could be DODGING BULLETS, who was an impressive novice chaser and ran a nice re-appearance at Cheltenham behind the foot-perfect Uxizandre. Providing he's come on for that, he could have a massive part to play. 9/1 about him looks a good price. Another who could deliver the goods is the unexposed VUKOVAR. Harry Fry has said that expects him to run a big race and the booking of Davy Russell looks positive. He doesn't come to England very often for just one ride. As for the rest, Oscar Whisky warrants respect given Barry Geraghty's bullish comments regarding his chances but he might struggle a little over the minimum trip. Somersby is a gallant warrior but could find a few too good given he isn't getting any younger. Hinterland has put in some shocking performances recently and has plenty to prove whilst Third Intention, William's Wishes and Pepite Rose are likely to come up short.





Dodging Bullets

There is another Group 1 on this card, courtesy of the Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1:50). Despite the tiny field size (which is becoming an all too regular occurrence these days) it is a hot affair. Recent winners of this race has been aged 4,5 and 6 so, on that basis, Court Minstrel and Dunraven Storm would be ruled out. Dunraven Storm beat VIBRATO VALTAT at Cheltenham last time out but he received a canny ride from the front by Richard Johnson that day; he may not be able to deploy those tactics with the same success again. Vibrato Valtat is undoubtedly a tricky ride but he is a talent. He looks more than capable of reversing the result of the recent Cheltenham race and could also be good enough to win this. Irish Saint also looks an exciting prospect going chasing for Paul Nicholls but it's the Ditcheat handler's grey that's the pick at the prices.

Vibrato Valtat



In the opener, (12:20), CARACCI APACHE has to be respected given his trainer's record in this race (Nicky Henderson has won the last three runnings). On that basis, Clean Sheet also is worth keeping an eye on.

12:50- ROYAL MOLL ran some decent races in Ireland and ran solidly on her British debut for Warren Greatrex. Could well be good enough, McCoy a positive booking.

3:35- Some of these will not like the softened ground, namely There's No Panic and Kasbadali. Whats Happening's form has been all over the place of late, Tales Of Milan will have to step up on his latest win and Upham Atom might not be good enough. EMPERORS CHOICE is quite an unpredictable runner but he's on his A-game, we know he'll stay and he'll like softer ground. Venetia Williams loves these long distance races and she could well be scooping another one here.

Today's racing at Aintree features two races over the National fences, but more about those later...

1:00- BAILEYS CONCERTO is in the form of his life, having won all 5 of his starts this season. He's got course experience and is one pound better off at weights than rival Distime based on his win here in October. There should be no reason why he can't complete the six-timer.

2:05- DAWALAN is starting to become a frustrating horse, both to his owners and the punters who have stayed loyal to him, expecting him to win again at some point. He's definitely got some ability though and is chosen to come out victorious.

2:40- Many people are touting Holywell as a Gold Cup contender for next year. For me, he is going to have to improve drastically on his seasonal bow if he is going to live up to this billing. Even though it was over an insufficient trip at Carlisle that day, it was a slightly listless run in my opinion and is not one I'm going to get on board with. Likewise Ma Filleule, who ran awfully at Down Royal on her reappearance when well fancied. Of course, improvement is almost guaranteed this time round but that run would worry me if I was backing her today. SAM WINNER, on the other hand, is a horse who won last time out and looks a dour stayer. If his Cheltenham success hasn't taken too much out of him, he could spring a mini surprise here. The final member of this quartet, Medermit, is proving very hard to win with nowadays and he does not look the force he once was.

And for the two races over the National fences

No horses have won either the Becher or the Grand Sefton under the age of 8 in recent years, so younger horses have been overlooked by me in these races to aid the whittling process.

1:30 Becher- CHANCE DU ROY has a superb record in this race and is taken to win again. The fact that he knows how to get from A to B over a National fence is a big plus. Two others who should go well is MENDIP EXPRESS, who looks a strong stayer and BENBENS, a consistent performer who has been quietly backed in the last 48 hours at a nice price.

3:15 Grand Sefton- CHAMPION COURT was once a seriously talented horse. His performances recently suggest that he's losing some of his former ability but, as a result, it means that he is looking well weighted for this. BENNYS MIST's last couple of runs have not inspired much either but his second place behind Ma Filleule in the Tophan over these fences in April would give him a shout here.


Enjoy your Saturday


Happy Punting!