What they're all competing for... |
Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite based on his Betfair Chase victory. He seems to have the beating of MENORAH, Dynaste and Cue Card based on that Haydock run. Dynaste will come on for that run given it was his first of the season but it was Cue Card's second and you have to wonder if he is the same horse as a couple of seasons ago. His brace of runs this term have been rather lacklustre; finishing fourth on both occasions at Exeter and Haydock. There's been a little bit of money coming on for him, the quickening of the ground being cited as the reason for this. However, he had fairly decent ground in the Haldon Gold Cup but that did not bring about a performance befitting a winner of this race. He's not the same horse as he was in my opinhion and is likely to come up short here. As for Menorah, he could be the one out the Betfair Chase who can give Silviniaco Conti the most to think about. He was the closest to Paul Nicholls' runner that day, competing with him until the final flight and he could be up to doing it again. Richard Johnson's suspension isn't ideal to his chances but his Kempton record has to be admired, winning three from four at the course. Double Ross unseated in the Betfair Chase and looks out of his depth here.
Menorah (blue) |
Champagne Fever (pink)
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Sign Of A Victory (black hat) |
The Feltham or Kauto Star Novices' Chase (2:00) looks to have some top quality chasers for the future lining up. Favourite Saphir Du Rheu won with minimum fuss last time out and is probably deserving of his market position, He looks as though the 3 mile trip will prove no challenge but it is an unknown and ultimately, in a race with some equally smart looking types, 11/10 is rather short. It could well be the case that another Ditcheat second string could be taking the winners prize- VIRAK is unbeaten over fences this season and although he hasn't beaten much, he's done it with aplomb. Competition for the lead may scupper his chances though. A horse that promised plenty as a novice hurdle and matched that on his chase debut was CONEYGREE. It seemed as though chasing would really be the making of him when he won at Newbury in November and, although the "bounce" factor is a definite worry, he'll stay until the cats come home.
Virak |
Coneygree (white hat) |
The day's proceedings kick off with a tasty novice hurdle (12:50). Jollyallan has looked like a smart novice in his two starts over hurdles whilst Sempre Medici won effortlessly on hurdles debut but so many horses of Willie Mullins' win on their hurdles debut against far inferior opposition so it is hard to judge just how useful he could be, especially in comparison to the rest of his battalion. A viable alternative to these two could well be John Ferguson's ZIP TOP. Clearly we don't know if he'll take to jumping but he was a top 2 year old on the flat (don't forget he was second behind Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy) and his trainer reports him to be flying on the gallops. It's interesting that Barry Geraghty is riding him and not Nicky Henderson's Bringithomeminty and he receives 8 pounds off the two market leaders. Interesting race, the winner is likely to feature prominently in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle betting at Cheltenham.
1:25 Kempton- STELLAR NOTION has never finished outside the first two over Rules and another consistent run should be expected. Albeit, this is tougher than anything he has faced before but natural progression from his last run should see him go close here. A fascinating contender in this is KATGARY. His first two runs this season have been poor in truth but there is a possibility that chase fences could conjure some improvement out of him. He's likely to have improved from his Greatwood run- if he hadn't, you wouldn't fancy Paul Nicholls to run him here today. This isn't the strongest race so if he can revert back to his form that saw him go down a narrow second in this year's Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, he should go close. His trainer has always held him in fairly high regard.
There's only the matter of 11 more English and Irish cards to contend with today. I'm going to take a quick glance at some of Wincanton's races...
1:05- CHANCE ENCOUNTER won over course and distance nicely enough last time out and is taken to win again. He only has to carry the featherweight of ten stone tomorrow, more than a stone less than anybody else. Top jockey Tom Scudamore takes the ride, one of only two rides he takes before taking the ride aboard Dynaste in the King George.
1:40- The other ride that Scudamore goes to Wincanton for is Batavir. He's clearly of interest given that it looks as though he's gone there for the purpose of riding this horse and he only has to carry 6 pounds extra for his recent Ascot win. However, his price is 13/8 is pretty appalling bearing in mind that he is racing against some useful types, namely SOUTHFIELD VIC. The mount of capable claimer Sean Bowen, he looked in good spirits when demolishing the field in a Taunton novices' hurdle over 3 miles. A replication of that should see him go very close.
3:55- KERROW came second behind a well fancied horse on debut. A similar performance will see him go close today whilst Nicjy Henderson's horses always warrant respect in this sphere so WILLIAM HENRY is also chosen. General Ginger may prove the biggest threat.
The Irish cards are headed by Leopardstown, where the highlight is probably Vautour in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase (2:55). He should not be beaten but purely for interest, the selection is CHANCOL, who won for me nicely last time out. He may not prove to be a proper Grade 1 performer but he's won three in a row so is the pick.
Hope everybody has a great Boxing Day!
Happy Punting!
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