BULLETS TO PEAK FOR CREEK

In the lead up to this weekend's feature race, Sandown's Tingle Creek Chase, I had a look at some of the best 2 mile chasers around. There was definitely a vintage crop of them around in the late 90's and early 2000's, with the likes of Moscow Flyer, Flagship Uberalles, Edredon Bleu, Direct Route, Azertyuiop and Well Chief all battling against each other to make for some awesome spectacles. In recent years, the scene has mainly been dominated by one horse at a time, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre two horses that spring to mind. As it stands, the former has not quite achieved as much as the latter, despite Nicky Henderson's inmate arguably being the classier animal. Hopefully he'll be back (and back to his almighty best) at some point as his sheer brilliance is certainly being missed. This year's renewal of the Tingle Creek certainly looks devoid of a star name like the ones listed previously but it makes for a wide open affair...

The market is headed by Balder Succes. He's been beaten by God's Own in his last two races and there's no real reason as to why the form should be reversed in my opinion. As for God's Own, although he's done very little wrong lately, there may be at least one horse in the field who proves too classy for him. This could be DODGING BULLETS, who was an impressive novice chaser and ran a nice re-appearance at Cheltenham behind the foot-perfect Uxizandre. Providing he's come on for that, he could have a massive part to play. 9/1 about him looks a good price. Another who could deliver the goods is the unexposed VUKOVAR. Harry Fry has said that expects him to run a big race and the booking of Davy Russell looks positive. He doesn't come to England very often for just one ride. As for the rest, Oscar Whisky warrants respect given Barry Geraghty's bullish comments regarding his chances but he might struggle a little over the minimum trip. Somersby is a gallant warrior but could find a few too good given he isn't getting any younger. Hinterland has put in some shocking performances recently and has plenty to prove whilst Third Intention, William's Wishes and Pepite Rose are likely to come up short.

Dodging Bullets

There is another Group 1 on this card, courtesy of the Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1:50). Despite the tiny field size (which is becoming an all too regular occurrence these days) it is a hot affair. Recent winners of this race has been aged 4,5 and 6 so, on that basis, Court Minstrel and Dunraven Storm would be ruled out. Dunraven Storm beat VIBRATO VALTAT at Cheltenham last time out but he received a canny ride from the front by Richard Johnson that day; he may not be able to deploy those tactics with the same success again. Vibrato Valtat is undoubtedly a tricky ride but he is a talent. He looks more than capable of reversing the result of the recent Cheltenham race and could also be good enough to win this. Irish Saint also looks an exciting prospect going chasing for Paul Nicholls but it's the Ditcheat handler's grey that's the pick at the prices.

Vibrato Valtat

In the opener, (12:20), CARACCI APACHE has to be respected given his trainer's record in this race (Nicky Henderson has won the last three runnings). On that basis, Clean Sheet also is worth keeping an eye on.

12:50- ROYAL MOLL ran some decent races in Ireland and ran solidly on her British debut for Warren Greatrex. Could well be good enough, McCoy a positive booking.

3:35- Some of these will not like the softened ground, namely There's No Panic and Kasbadali. Whats Happening's form has been all over the place of late, Tales Of Milan will have to step up on his latest win and Upham Atom might not be good enough. EMPERORS CHOICE is quite an unpredictable runner but he's on his A-game, we know he'll stay and he'll like softer ground. Venetia Williams loves these long distance races and she could well be scooping another one here.

Today's racing at Aintree features two races over the National fences, but more about those later...

1:00- BAILEYS CONCERTO is in the form of his life, having won all 5 of his starts this season. He's got course experience and is one pound better off at weights than rival Distime based on his win here in October. There should be no reason why he can't complete the six-timer.

2:05- DAWALAN is starting to become a frustrating horse, both to his owners and the punters who have stayed loyal to him, expecting him to win again at some point. He's definitely got some ability though and is chosen to come out victorious.

2:40- Many people are touting Holywell as a Gold Cup contender for next year. For me, he is going to have to improve drastically on his seasonal bow if he is going to live up to this billing. Even though it was over an insufficient trip at Carlisle that day, it was a slightly listless run in my opinion and is not one I'm going to get on board with. Likewise Ma Filleule, who ran awfully at Down Royal on her reappearance when well fancied. Of course, improvement is almost guaranteed this time round but that run would worry me if I was backing her today. SAM WINNER, on the other hand, is a horse who won last time out and looks a dour stayer. If his Cheltenham success hasn't taken too much out of him, he could spring a mini surprise here. The final member of this quartet, Medermit, is proving very hard to win with nowadays and he does not look the force he once was.

And for the two races over the National fences

No horses have won either the Becher or the Grand Sefton under the age of 8 in recent years, so younger horses have been overlooked by me in these races to aid the whittling process.

1:30 Becher- CHANCE DU ROY has a superb record in this race and is taken to win again. The fact that he knows how to get from A to B over a National fence is a big plus. Two others who should go well is MENDIP EXPRESS, who looks a strong stayer and BENBENS, a consistent performer who has been quietly backed in the last 48 hours at a nice price.

3:15 Grand Sefton- CHAMPION COURT was once a seriously talented horse. His performances recently suggest that he's losing some of his former ability but, as a result, it means that he is looking well weighted for this. BENNYS MIST's last couple of runs have not inspired much either but his second place behind Ma Filleule in the Tophan over these fences in April would give him a shout here.


Enjoy your Saturday


Happy Punting!