MO-GOLLY! KAUTO LOOKS GRAND

Yesterday's racing certainly did not disappoint with Faugheen, The New One, Al Ferof and Silviniaco Conti putting in impressive performances whilst others failed to fire. Cue Card was one of these, appearing to be a non-stayer. Dynaste's jockey Tom Scudamore was happy with his run although I'd have liked him to finish a little closer, especially for a horse who goes fairly well fresh. Taquin De Seuil was possibly the most disappointing out of them all but it seemed as though there was something amiss with him. You would hope he'd be back to fight another day but possibly in slightly lesser company than the big championship races, he just does not seem to be quite good enough to topple the likes of Silviniaco Conti et al. Other horses who ran respectable races include Somersby and Blue Fashion whilst a mention must be given to Aubusson, under an inspired ride by the eloquent Lizzie Kelly and Croco Bay, he turned a competitive handicap into a procession. His handicap looks sure to be smashed as a result though.

Today's racing features some more promising sorts, many of whom run in the 12:55. Both Martello Tower and Free Expression look smart staying novice hurdlers, but KAUTO GRAND MOGOL also has a good chance at a generous price. Being a half brother to the legendary Kauto Star, he is certainly a horse that many will be keeping a close eye on. A horse who's had his problems, Elizabeth Doyle's gelding showed no signs of letting them hinder him last time out with a smooth victory at Limerick. He has to overturn form with Martello Tower but it wouldn't be a surprise. Both of these horse should improve with time but hopefully Kauto Grand Mogol will improve past Margaret Mullins' representative.

Kauto Grand Mogol

Another big name who returns today is Vautour. He should take this novice chase (1:55) with aplomb but I do not deal with horses at 1/4 so CLARCAM is a rather speculative alternative. As a four year old, he receives 12 pounds from the Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner so that is clearly in his favour and his juvenile form is not too shabby. But of course, he'll have to do something special to stop another string in Rich Ricci's illustrious bow clocking up a success on chase debut.

Milsean is another favourite who should go in but SNOW FALCON's form is not that bad and looks the most likely contender in the 12:25 to cause an upset. He was second last time out behind another member of the Gigginstown juggernaut, Valerian Bridge, which makes him the favourite to beat Milsean out of the rest of the field.

The Troytown (2:25) is quite a tough race to decipher, with many of the line up having a realistic chance in this. Black Benny, Balbriggan, Bose Ikard and Nearly Nama'd all have decent prospects but the selections are OWEGA STAR, who will need to recapture some of his best form to win this but he cannot be discounted. His second behind Shanpallas over a year ago is proving to be very solid form. Davy Russell is a positive booking. The 2011 winner of this race, GROODY HILL, has had his problems since winning but he seems to be slowly coming back to his best. His win last time out showed he's in good spirits and is well handicapped on his best form. One who will have no problems with soft ground.

The 2:55 could see GIVE ME A BREAK complete the hat-trick. Based on her two latest victories, she should be there or thereabouts at the finish.

A Listed mares flat race (3:25) concludes proceedings. Twentytwo's Taken looks to have a massive chance and should take all the beating but she's quite a small price so BELLE OF THE MOOR is chosen to cause an upset. Jessica Harrington's 5 year old ran a nice enough race when fifth on debut and is likely to improve for it. Whether she will enough to win this is another question though.


Enjoy your Sunday


Happy Punting!

BACK TAQ FOR BETFAIR GLORY

I'll just be previewing the big race today, the Betfair Chase. Catch my other tips (for what they're worth) on Twitter.

TAQUIN DE SEUIL looked a very exciting prospect when he won the JLT at the Cheltenham Festival in March, staying on well to beat the talented Uxizandre and the reliable Double Ross, he re-opposes today. On his seasonal reappearance, he ran no sort of a race at Newton Abbot, beaten a country mile. His second run of the season was far more promising, when filling the runners up spot in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. You got the sense from that run that he was coming back to his best so he could well be nicely tuned up for this. The softer ground is well up his street; he has good form on it and the jockey booking of Barry Geraghty is positive. You would also have to put Taquin De Seuil's Wetherby conqueror MENORAH firmly into the equation. He won very nicely that day and with the form his trainer and jockey are in, you certainly cannot discount him.

Menorah (foreground) and Taquin De Seuil (red and green)

Cue Card won this last year on the back of a prep run in the Haldon Gold Cup but he was only beaten 6 lengths last year whereas he was beaten 15-odd lengths this year. The only time he was beaten further was in the 2012 King George, where he was beaten 20 lengths. But bear in mind that run was on heavy ground and over nearly a mile further. To me, his recent Exeter run was not a good one and although he will improve for the run, he will have to improve A LOT to win this. Dynaste will probably be better for the run whilst Silviniaco Conti looks the main danger; he too should come on for his Charlie Hall fifth. Harry Topper has a lot of things in his favour, including ground, distance and seasonal reappearance but he may not be good enough against some of these. Double Ross is consistent but may be out of his depth a little, The Giant Bolster only really seems to come alive at Cheltenham and I'm surprised to see Medermit running in this and not a big handicap, such as the Hennessy.


Enjoy the big race and enjoy your Saturday


Happy Punting!

ROCK FOR GREATWOOD VICTOIRE

Today is the final day of Cheltenham's Open meeting, with the highlight being the Greatwood Hurdle. The first two days of action have not disappointed, sufficiently wetting the appetite for the National Hunt season ahead. Sam Twiston-Davies and Richard Johnson have stolen the show so far in the saddle, with their retrospective trainers, Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs, reaping the rewards. Anyway, on to todays racing now.

The Greatwood (3:15) is always a competitive race and has thrown up some useful sorts in the past. A horse who I fancied a lot when the declarations first came out for this race was GARDE LA VICTOIRE. His form last season was fairly solid, with many of his good performances coming at Cheltenham. A second place behind Ballyalton and a win at the April meeting are evidence of this. His recent Aintree run would have him nicely tuned up for this and his trainer is one who has been known to run quality sorts in this such as Rooster Booster and Detroit City. The only worry is the ground. The rain that fell definitely hindered his hopes, as his best form has come on a better surface. That is probably why he's currently priced at 14/1 and not in single figures. If he can cope with the ground, he should be well up to continuing Hobbs and Johnson's red hot form.

A horse who will go on this ground is this year's Imperial Cup winner BALTIMORE ROCK. His form looks competitive with most of these and even his fourth place behind Arkle hopeful Josses Hill is useful. David Pipe and Tom Scudamore teamed up last year to win with Dell' Arca and they could be looking at two wins in this race in as many years.

Garde La Victoire (left) being narrowly beaten by Ballyalton

Baltimore Rock winning the Imperial Cup at Sandown

There are some other top races on this card, including the Grade 2 novice hurdle (1:35). This is meant to be a trial for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in March. A horse who has some useful form as a juvenile is COMMISSIONED. He ran very respectable races behind the likes of Activial, Guitar Pete, Clarcam and Calipto and because he never won last season, he gets to run as a novice. He provided John Ferguson with his first ever Cheltenham winner last month and he followed that up with a facile success at Kempton. John Ferguson has recorded two more wins at the course since that win so any demons that surrounded him regarding his Cheltenham record have been well and truly obliterated. Being by Authorized, the ground shouldn't be a problem either.

THE GOVANESS could also go well at a price. She gets a weight allowance being a filly and her bumper form from last season would put her firmly into the mix here. Her course success shows that the Cheltenham hill should be no problem either.


No horse older than 6 has won the Arkle Trial Novices Chase (2:10) in recent years. That would rule out Court Minstrel and Dunraven Storm. Little Jon has a little to find on ratings whilst Vibrato Valtat is probably the one to beat based on his victory at Warwick under a cheeky ride by Sam Twiston Davies. However, he's being taken on by DUKE OF NAVAN. He beat Urban Hymn at Carlisle on his seasonal reappearance and you would hope that he would improve for that. Testing ground will pose no risk whatsoever, he may be able to grind out a tough win here.


A Nicky Richards double could be on the cards, with SIMPLY NED being chosen in the Shloer Chase (2:40). There are question marks about both Dodging Bullets and Module based on their last starts, which were lacklustre whilst Uxizandre looks to want further than today's 2 mile trip. Poole Master and Lancetto do not look good enough. Simply Ned's 4 lengths second behind Balder Succes puts him firmly into calculations here. He gets his distance and has already had a run this season, which may prove very important.

In the concluding bumper (3:50), DEFINITLY RED has a shot despite his penalty. He's revel in the ground and his smart form from last season, including a hugely respectable seventh in the Champion Bumper, makes him a big player here.  AQALIM is another who performed well in bumpers last year and looks a horse with a big engine. His third place behind Ballybolley in Aintree's equivalent of the Champion Bumper give him a massive chance too.


One for Punchestown- (1:05) CHANCOL is two from two over chase fences at Punchestown and he looks well up to making it three from three. ALELCHI INOIS is on quite the winning streak but this is his toughest race to date and the soft ground is not sure to suit him. Sizing Granite did well on chase debut last time out but will have to put in an improved performance if he's to score here you feel.


Condolences to the family and friends of Dessie Hughes, who has died aged 71. I only knew him really as a trainer, but as a jockey and of course, a father too, he changed the game of racing massively. He will be sorely missed.


Enjoy your Sunday


Happy Punting!

SING FROM THE WINNING HYMN SHEET

Cheltenham's three day Paddy Power meeting commences today. For many, this is where the jumps season really gets into gear. Dreams of Cheltenham in March start to be realised, even this early on in the season. I have no doubt that I am not the only one who is already thinking about the tapes being lifted for the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Anyway, back to today. The 2:25 sees some potentially quality novice chasers line up. It's a race that has been won by a 6 year old in its last 7 renewals, so they definitely appear to be the age group of horses to be looking at. URBAN HYMN ran a very good race last time out behind the useful Duke Of Navan and that was over the minimum trip of 2 miles. It is safe to say that was not his optimum trip and that he will definitely improve for the extra four and a half furlongs. That recent run was likely to have blown away any cobwebs that may have been present; he looks to have a big chance. Philip Hobbs' horses are flying at the moment so CHAMPAGNE WEST needs to be respected. Any rain would help his cause but you'd be foolish to totally ignore any runner from that stable lately.

Urban Hymn

1:15- Including jockeys claims, all recent winners of this race have had an official rating of 129 or less. Also, all those that were victorious had raced at Cheltenham beforehand, bar 6 year old Irish raider Hoopy in 2008. Taking all that into consideration, last years winner of this race HANDY ANDY is selected. He is 8 pounds higher today than this time 12 months ago but that may not prove enough to stop him. His recent third place at Chepstow should have him primed for this. A horse who looks one to side with.

1:50- A wide open handicap chase that has been won by 8 year olds in its last three runnings. Although he has not won for more than two years, ASTRACAD has slowly tumbled down the weights despite not having run too many awful races of late. The drop back down to 2 miles should eke out some improvement as his best form is at that trip. MONETAIRE is fascinating on his first start in Britain for David Pipe. Having the same owners as fellow French imports Salut Flo and Ballynagour makes him of immediate interest and whilst he may not prove to be in their leagues, he won't have to be to win this race, especially off a low weight of 10 stone 4 pounds. A first time tongue tie and Tom Scudamore's presence in the saddle add to the intrigue of this run. Could be anything but not without a chance.

3:00- Again mentioning the ages of past winners of a race, the last 7 winners of this Grade 2 novices' hurdle have all been aged 5. Blaklion is definitely the one to beat based on his Persian War success but he's going to be opposed with MINELLA PRESENT. His trainer Neil Mullohand has not been short of newspaper room recently with the fiasco surrounding The Young Master's Wincanton "victory" (he lost the race due to his ineligibility to run) but he will be hoping to fill the space with a proper win. His horse in this has won his last two races very nicely and although this is a big step up, he is fully deserving of it. Hopefully he will be able to improve further on Neil Mullholland's impeccable strike rate at Prestbury Park (7 wins from 21- 33%).

4:05- Cup Final surely has a big chance but his price has become absurd. RIVER DEEP has won his last two races and should put in another bold showing for the red hot Hobbs stable whilst BUSTER DAN DAN could be of interest coming over from Ireland. He will have to defy a big rise in the weights however.


You'll notice I have not put a tip in for the 3:35. That's because I think Balthazar King will win but he's no price for me today. He's won of my favourite horses so I think he's worth an honourable mention despite not tipping him up today.


Football accumulator for tonight

SCOTLAND-IRELAND Both Teams To Score
ROMANIA-NORTHERN IRELAND Both Teams NOT To Score
BARNSLEY-COLCHESTER Both Teams To Score
TNS-ABERYSTWYTH- Both Teams To Score

And finally...

I am going to Wolverhampton races tonight and I'm going to try and do a live blog from the course. It's the first time I've tried it so you'll have to see how it goes!


Enjoy your Friday


Happy Punting!

RUBY TO ROCK THE ELITE

The flat season concludes today at Doncaster, with the November Handicap. As is so often the case at this time of year, horses who appreciate cut in the ground will be more at home. This is definitely something to bear in mind. First of all, there's some racing at Wincanton to have a look at, where another National Hunt hero is set to make his seasonal reappearance.

He's won a Champion Hurdle and in his last race, gave The New One a mighty scare at Aintree. You've probably guessed that the horse being referred to is ROCK ON RUBY (3:15). Both of the races eluded to there were magnificent performances and you would have to be fairly confident that a replication of either of these runs today would see him be a massive player, despite having the burden of carrying top weight to contend with. He carries 12 more pounds than market favourite Irving but this might not be enough to stop Harry Fry's 9 year old. Paul Nicholls' horses have tended to come on for the run so far this season and even so, Rock On Ruby looks too classy for Irving. 9/2 looks massive.

Rock On Ruby winning the 2012 Champion Hurdle

Another horse who could run well is FOX NORTON. He had a decent juvenile campaign last season, with solid performances in both Aintree and Punchestown's Group 1 events for horses in that age category. His trainer Nick Williams thinks quite a bit of this horse, he could run a nice race. As for the rest, Forgotten Voice warrants respect but there is a worry that the ground may be too soft for him come race time. Bertimont takes a big step up from his cake walk in a Chepstow handicap hurdle four weeks ago whilst Hint Of Mint has a chance based on his recent second behind The New One at Kempton but his form before that could leave him a little short here.



Another top weight appears to have a solid chance, this time in the 2:05, courtesy of POLLY PEACHUM. She would prefer better ground but she has form over most of these based on her victory in a mares handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in April. The fact she has to give weight away all round is a major concern but she is the classiest horse lining up so is worth keeping on side with.


Doncaster round off what has been another exciting flat season with their annual curtain call, the highlight of the card being the November Handicap (3:35). A horse who looks as though he has plenty going for him is PLUTOCRACY. He appears to have been trained for this race, as shown by the two races he's had so far this season. They should leave him cherry ripe for this. Pat Smullen's main reason for making the journey from Ireland seems to be this runner so that is another big plus. Trainer David Lanigan has an impeccable record at the Town Moor track (7 from 19- 37%)  which is also in his favour. First time cheekpieces could easily bring out improvement as well. The only worry is the ground, as he has not got much form in conditions as soft as this. However, if he does cope, he has a huge chance.

A smiley Pat Smullen- he will be looking to finish off a brilliant season
with a win aboard Plutocracy.

Another jockey who has had a brilliant season is Andrea Atzeni and he could cap it off with another big race winner with MOUNT LOGAN. The ground is a worry for him too but his form looks fairly strong in this. Luca Cumani should have him nicely geared up towards it, he has good claims. Old Town Boy and One Pekan could be the best of the rest.


The 1:50 is a competitive seven furlong handicap. Doncaster stalwart and soft ground specialist LEVITATE has a massive chance in this. He won this very race last year and the 2013 Lincoln winner should be well capable of taking this for the second year running. FARLOW is now four pounds below his last winning mark due to the useful claimer Jack Garrity's 5 pound claim. This is the first time he has been below that winning mark and the application of first time blinkers only enhances his claims. ACCESSION has won some nice races this season and is well worth his place of taking another decent prize.


The 2:25 is a Listed sprint which sees plenty of the usual suspects turn up that relish these dashes on soft ground. One of these is the favourite Jack Dexter, who is underpriced for me solely for the fact that he has found winning races tough this season. TROPICS, on the other hand, has won a race recently and is in good form, as proven by his storming run when second behind Gordon Lord Byron on British Champions Day. Jack Dexter was third that day so it's a little perplexing for me as to why Tropics is a bigger price. DUNGANNON is chasing the hat trick and is another who loves it at Doncaster. He should be thereabouts at the finish. Spinatrix is another who is flying at present but she might just fall short of what is required here.


One for Sandown

(1:55)- ROMULUS DU DONJON ran a solid race in his last French run, looking as though a step up in trip should be right up his street. Trainer Oliver Sherwood is going along nicely at the moment and it could be significant that he was snapped up by big time owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede. They usually do well with their British jumps horses (they won the race last year with Kentucky Hyden) and if this horse has some ability he should be one to watch at the Esher track.


Two for Naas

(1:35)- The two big players in this maiden hurdle look to be Free Expression and UNCLE DANNY. Based on their bumper successes, the former looked as though he may want a trip longer than todays, given that he won over 18 furlongs and was doing most of the work towards the finish. As a result, the selection is Uncle Danny. Davy Russell is a booking that fills me with confidence.

(3:55)- Although THEATRE FLAME was last of four on debut, he was only beaten 3 lengths. Also, you have to remember that the other three horses he was running against all had a run prior to the race and the market found it hard to separate the trio, with Theatre Flame being the clear outsider at 14/1. Given that the run was only 12 days ago, he will strip a lot fitter than some that will have to defy much longer absences. Robbie McNamara as a booking only improves his chances. Should be tough to beat.


Here's some football picks...

Treble

HULL to beat Burnley
BLACKBURN to beat Brighton
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY versus ROTHERHAM draw

Both Teams To Score

Fulham-Huddersfield
Ipswich-Watford
Leeds-Blackpool
Millwall-Brentford


Have a good weekend

Happy Punting!

MY MEL-FOUR-NE CUP FANCIES

The "race that stops a nation" takes place soon. That's right, the Melbourne Cup is here. This 2 mile (3200m if you so wish) handicap is as competitive as ever. For these big field races, I like to look at what statistics previous winners have in common and go from there.

Looking at the last few renewals, I've concluded...

• A 5 year old would be ideal (6 in Australian terms)
• A male horse and entire
• Bottom half draw
• Last run in October

I've picked out 4 that interest me.

ADMIRE RAKTI- Male and entire, bottom half draw (8), last run 18th October.

The current favourite, a horse who definitely warrants respect. Admittedly, his runs in Japan have not inspired much but his run in the Caulfield Cup is what makes him a big player here. Jockey Zac Purton (who takes the ride again) gave him a peach of a ride that day, always travelling well before he unleashed him up the straight. It was a measure of Purton's confidence that he took him very wide that day, still winning comfortably in the process. The Japanese raider stayed on nicely at the end, he should run well again. The only worry may be the extra weight that he has to carry compared to the rest of the field.

LIDARI- 5 year old, male and entire, bottom half draw (10), last run 18th October.

Although he may not appear to have a great chance, as his price suggests (50/1), he fits all of my criteria, so he has to be of interest. This former French trained horse has yet to set the world alight in Australia in truth, his latest run being a respectable (but nothing more) sixth place behind Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Could surprise at those huge odds.

Admire Rakti (jockey upright in saddle with two tone blue hat) and
Lidari (white hat, furthest left)

And now a couple of European raiders...

PROTECTIONIST- Male and entire, bottom half draw (11), last run 11th October

This Andreas Wohler trained horse is a very consistent performer, never finishing outside of the first three. That was until he was a length fourth on his Australian debut almost a month ago. That was still a top run mind and he will come on nicely for it. Has the almighty Ryan Moore to aid him, although he has been criticised for some slightly suspect rides in this very race in the past, namely Mount Athos. However, this strong stayer could have what it takes to bring the Cup to Germany.

Protectionist

MUTUAL REGARD- 5 year old, bottom half draw (12)

Even though this horse only meets two of my criterions, he still has a big chance in this. I was tearing my hair out after fancying this one for the Ebor without backing so hopefully tomorrow he can avenge that. Has a master trainer in Johnny Murtagh and a top class jockey in Damien Oliver, who won the race last year aboard Fiorente. If this ex-Sir Mark Prescott runner could win, it would firmly put Mr Murtagh's name on the list of trainer's to be greatly revered, even at this stage of his fledgling training career.

Mutual Regard

I cannot forget my OnTheOtherHoof sweepstake horse either, Lucia Valentina. Never had much luck in their sweepstakes in the past so it's nice to have a sporting chance at least.

Hope everyone enjoys the race

Happy Punting!

PUT BAYERN AND TONA (ON YOUR CLASSIC) LIST

Day one of the Breeders Cup meeting certainly had some exciting races, my personal favourite being Untapable's victory in the Distaff. Rosie Napravnik was inspired in the saddle and she added to the drama by announcing her retirement straight after the race. She is the best female jockey bar none in the world and I am sure that I speak for everybody in wishing her the happiest of retirements.


Classic (Grade 1)

This race seems to revolve around the prolific winner Shared Belief. He's no price for me so I'm going to oppose him with a couple of three year olds. California Chrome's colours were famously lowered by TONALIST in the Belmont Stakes and I fancy the chances of Christophe Clement's raider in the big one. He runs very consistent races and could be there to pick up the pieces towards the finish, providing the pace is strong. BAYERN put in a barn-storming performance last time out and a replication of that will see him go very close. Can he Mu-nich this race (I'll grab my coat...).

Tonalist

Bayern

Filly And Mare Turf (Grade 1)

She may like it a little softer than this but there is no denying that SECRET GESTURE is a classy individual. To me, she seems like the sort of horse that could be capable of winning a big one and this could be it. Pat Smullen is an eye-catching jockey booking, she should go well. FIESOLANA has a chance if she can see the trip out. Her best form is at a mile and that form is strong; not many horses can beat Rizeena so that form would make her competitive here. Dayatthespa is my biggest danger.

Turf Sprint (Grade 1)

Hootenanny won at Royal Ascot and won yesterday at this meeting for Wesley Ward so I'm looking for NO NAY NEVER to do the same. He is an absolute speedball who has some very strong form. Hopefully this machine of a horse can boss the race. DIMENSION could go well at a price too. He beat Undrafted last time out (who I fear the most) but hopefully he can replicate the form. Ryan Moore looks an exciting booking in the saddle.

Juvenile (Grade 1)

It was hard to decide betweern Todd Pletcher's two runners but I've plumped for DAREDEVIL over Carpe Diem. The only reason for this is Daredevil was a better price than Carpe Diem at the time of me placing my bets (Carpe Diem was my original pick as he was the bigger price a couple of days ago). They both have similar form, winning both of their races so far very easily. The unbeaten SOUPER COLOSSAL takes a big step up in grade but he has held all before him thus far and could be anything in truth. Ballydoyle's representative The Great War may not be good enough

Turf (Grade 1)

Both Flintshire and Telescope were too short for me but I would have chosen the former out of those two (if you're interested). I am opposing them both with MAIN SEQUENCE, who has looked a totally different horse since travelling across the pond. Graham Motion seems to have worked the oracle with him and he could easily extend his unbeaten American run to four. The enigmatic, unruly Chicquita could well be there at the finish but her attitude may cost her again.

Sprint (Grade 1)

Whether it be in Meydan or America, RICH TAPESTRY has proven to be a top class performer. These American sprint races can be hard to call as they always seem to be beating each other but his form looks solid so could well prove to be top dog here. The unbeaten three year old INDIANAPOLIS could run a good race, he is certainly performing well.

Mile (Grade 1)

MUSTAJEEB has proven to be a classy horse this season and he is well worthy backing against Toronado at the prices they are. Dermot Weld will have him cherry ripe for this and he looks sure to run a big race. Alain De Royer-Dupre is also a master trainer so his filly VEDA certainly warrants respect.


Enjoy the quality racing on offer


Happy Punting!