MY MEL-FOUR-NE CUP FANCIES

The "race that stops a nation" takes place soon. That's right, the Melbourne Cup is here. This 2 mile (3200m if you so wish) handicap is as competitive as ever. For these big field races, I like to look at what statistics previous winners have in common and go from there.

Looking at the last few renewals, I've concluded...

• A 5 year old would be ideal (6 in Australian terms)
• A male horse and entire
• Bottom half draw
• Last run in October

I've picked out 4 that interest me.

ADMIRE RAKTI- Male and entire, bottom half draw (8), last run 18th October.

The current favourite, a horse who definitely warrants respect. Admittedly, his runs in Japan have not inspired much but his run in the Caulfield Cup is what makes him a big player here. Jockey Zac Purton (who takes the ride again) gave him a peach of a ride that day, always travelling well before he unleashed him up the straight. It was a measure of Purton's confidence that he took him very wide that day, still winning comfortably in the process. The Japanese raider stayed on nicely at the end, he should run well again. The only worry may be the extra weight that he has to carry compared to the rest of the field.

LIDARI- 5 year old, male and entire, bottom half draw (10), last run 18th October.

Although he may not appear to have a great chance, as his price suggests (50/1), he fits all of my criteria, so he has to be of interest. This former French trained horse has yet to set the world alight in Australia in truth, his latest run being a respectable (but nothing more) sixth place behind Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Could surprise at those huge odds.

Admire Rakti (jockey upright in saddle with two tone blue hat) and
Lidari (white hat, furthest left)

And now a couple of European raiders...

PROTECTIONIST- Male and entire, bottom half draw (11), last run 11th October

This Andreas Wohler trained horse is a very consistent performer, never finishing outside of the first three. That was until he was a length fourth on his Australian debut almost a month ago. That was still a top run mind and he will come on nicely for it. Has the almighty Ryan Moore to aid him, although he has been criticised for some slightly suspect rides in this very race in the past, namely Mount Athos. However, this strong stayer could have what it takes to bring the Cup to Germany.

Protectionist

MUTUAL REGARD- 5 year old, bottom half draw (12)

Even though this horse only meets two of my criterions, he still has a big chance in this. I was tearing my hair out after fancying this one for the Ebor without backing so hopefully tomorrow he can avenge that. Has a master trainer in Johnny Murtagh and a top class jockey in Damien Oliver, who won the race last year aboard Fiorente. If this ex-Sir Mark Prescott runner could win, it would firmly put Mr Murtagh's name on the list of trainer's to be greatly revered, even at this stage of his fledgling training career.

Mutual Regard

I cannot forget my OnTheOtherHoof sweepstake horse either, Lucia Valentina. Never had much luck in their sweepstakes in the past so it's nice to have a sporting chance at least.

Hope everyone enjoys the race

Happy Punting!