ASSEMBLE A WINNER

This week sees "Ireland's Cheltenham", the Punchestown Festival take place. Five days of high class National Hunt action which allows the opportunity to see if those that won at Prestbury Park can frank their form or if the ones that swerved Cheltenham can prove to be the best around.

In the Growise Champion Novice Chase, the horse who has the best form going into the race is MORNING ASSEMBLY. He ran a brilliant race at Cheltenham, finishing a respectable 3rd behing O'Faolains Boy and Smad Place in the RSA Chase. As neither of those horses re-oppose in this, you would have to say that Morning Assembly has the best form going into this race, as the RSA often proves to be the strongest of the Novice Chases at Cheltenham. The ground will be in his favour, the trip should no problems and he has the master Davy Russell on board. The only worry for me is how much the RSA took out for him, as he didn't have the easiest of races that day. However, many of the opposition have had hard races recently too including Ballycasey ( 4th in RSA, fell next time out), Don Cossack ( fell in RSA, second to Holywell at Aintree) and Carlingford Lough (6th RSA). In fact, with the first two mentioned there having another tough race since the RSA, you would have to assume that they may feel the most tired in the race.

The main danger may prove to Djakadam. He fell in a different race at Cheltenham but looked a classy horse up until that race, with many nice wins to his name. He probably hasn't lost any of his ability since that fall, the worry about this horse is that he is only a 5 year old, and he make lack experience against some older types for this, although he is clearly a top racehorse. Also interesting that Ruby Walsh chooses to ride him over Ballycasey.

But if Morning Assembly replicates his RSA run and does not feel any negative effects from the race, he looks to have a massive chance.

Morning Assembly

In the Boylesports.com Champion Chase, SOMERSBY has to be of interest in a wide open race. He's ran some awesome races this year, twice coming second behind horse of the year Sire De Grugy. He's due a big prize like this, given his solid efforts of late. AP McCoy is a positive booking, he seems to have a lot going for him tomorrow. As for his opponents, Hidden Cyclone acts best when there is more give in the ground, Module was beaten by Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham, Ballynagour is hard to call (depends on which Ballynagour turns up), Sizing Europe isn't getting any younger, Baily Green has been winless for 2 years and Twinlight may not be good enough for a race of this grade.

As already mentioned, the race is wide open and the Grand Annual winner at Cheltenham SAVELLO could have a chance. Davy Russell in the saddle once again is a major plus; he could surprise at big odds.

My final selection is the concluding race, where FORGOTTEN RULES looks to have a good chance for Dermot Weld, who has been on fire lately and Robbie McNamara, who is one of the best amateur jockeys around. The horse is bred to have a little more speed than his opposition, being by flat sire Nayef out of a horse who came 4th in an Irish 1000 Guineas. In truth, he could be anything, but being trained by Weld gives him an edge for me. The main danger for me is Fine Theatre, who is a half brother to top quality chaser Joncol.

Hope everybody has a good start to Punchestown

Happy Punting!

WITNESS AP-HEEL AT SANDOWN

Today's racing at Sandown sees the conclusion of what has been a memorable jumps season. The horses who have made the past few months are having their deserved laps of honour around the paddock before racing. On the other hand, some are having their season's swansong on the track itself. Sire De Grugy is one of these and he looks extremely likely to add another Group 1 to his impressive collection, although the opposition isn't up to much today in truth. The feature race is the bet365 Chase, which was won two years ago by the often enigmatic, but undeniably brilliant Tidal Bay, who just as I write this has been retired. I wish him a happy retirement, as does everybody else in the racing community no doubt.

In the bet365 Chase, I'm keen on two horses, (as the title of the blog suggests). Firstly, ARDKILLY WITNESS. In what has been a whirlwind season for trainer Dr Richard Newland, he will be looking to add this valuable prize to the Grand National he won with Pineau De Re earlier this month. His representative in this race should have no problems with the trip and he has form on the ground, which isn't going to be bottomless but will be rather dead, following the deluge that hit the course during their flat card yesterday. The horses that ran 24 hours ago found it very tough going and although it won't be as grueling today as the rain appears to have stayed away, it will still pose a challenge to some. His trainer is likely to have him primed for this race, and he looks to have a massive chance.

Ardkilly Express (foreground)

My other selection for this race was the winner of the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, SPRING HEELED. The rain that hit yesterday will not play to his strengths at all, but it shouldn't be soft enough to rule him out entirely. His trainer is another who has had an amazing season, as Jim Culloty won the Cheltenham Gold Cup with Lord Windermere. The pilot that day was Davy Russell, who gave him a spectacular ride that day and he rides Spring Heeled today, so that is something massively in his favour. Culloty claims the course will bring out the best in him, hopefully he will be there or thereabouts towards the finish.

Spring Heeled

The other horse that Jim Culloty has brought over from Ireland interests me as well. VAXALCO runs in the 5:30 against some horses with far superior form to him, but he runs off a featherweight of 9-9, which is aided by five pounded claimer Conor Shoemark. He is exceptional value for his claim, having recently chalked up double at Cheltenham's April meeting and they were both smart rides. Interestingly, when Culloty was a guest on the Morning Line in November, he tipped this horse up as having a good chance. He only came second that day, but its an idea of what his trainer thinks he can achieve. 20/1 could be a really nice price about him.

In the opener, BARADARI is of interest on ground he'll love and connections will be hoping this expensive purchase can win the 1st place prize today. Also, VODKA WELLS cannot be ignored for a shrewd trainer in Brian Ellison. Barry Geraghty is an interesting jockey booking and the support in the market for him could imply that he has a big chance. The main danger to these two is Dolores Delightful.

Over at Haydock, LOUIS THE PIOUS should go well in the 2:20. The trip is an unknown although its shouldn't provide too much bother for him. Along with him, DON'T BOTHER ME is interesting for his new trainer Marco Botti. This is far easier than what he faced last year, as he was competing against the Irish classic generation. He wasn't up to that class, but he could be up to this. Frankie Dettori as a booking catches the eye too.

In the 2:55 at Haydock, GALUPPI is chosen to beat the favourite Talmada. Ryan Moore is a positive booking and I believe the odds on favourite is way too short. As long as he improves a little on his second run he should win, in my opinion.

Finally, in the 5:25 at Doncaster, THATCHEREEN is the selection. Her best run was on soft ground last year and that's what she's got today. Being by Mastercraftsman, this is no surprise. She should relish the underfoot conditions whilst others may not.

Have a good weekend

Happy Punting!

WOOD GARS HAVE A CHANCE? DEFINITELY

Sandown host a good card tomorrow, with some decent Group races taking place. We get an early view of the horses who may influence the Middle Distance, Mile and Classic races throughout the course of the season. Four races go under my magnifying glass here, so without further ado...

In the bet365 Mile (2:45), we see Lincoln second Tullius, QEII second Top Notch Tonto, winner of the races last year Trumpet Major and the winner of this race two years ago Penitent, Goodwood Group 3 winner Montiridge, Deauville Group 3 winner Fire Ship and Lennox Stakes winner GARSWOOD. 

With the ground expected to be around soft, a horse who appreciates it will be required to win. Some of the field are more of a mudlark than others, namely Penitent, Tullius and Fire Ship. However, the ground may not be soft enough for these three to be seen at their best. Of the others, Trumpet Major seems to have lost his way a little of late, so he is opposed for this. Top Notch Tonto was one of the highlight's of the flat season last year, exceeding everybody's expectations. Whether or not 2013's runs were a fluke or not is unknown, I'm hoping they weren't flashes in the pan, but in case they were, he is also opposed, especially given his price. Of the other two, it was just a case of going for the horse who appealed more at the odds and this was Garswood.  Montiridge is 2 from 2 at the track, which warrants respect, although his form did tail towards the back end of last year. But if he recaptures his best form, he has a chance. Garswood arguably ran the best race of his career last time out when coming third behind the wonder mare Moonlight Cloud on Arc day. He will relish the ground and has the one and only Ryan Moore on board (his ride aboard Garswood at Goodwood last year made my top 5 flat rides of the year- post from 2nd January 2014). He has a lot of things in his favour and I'd like to think he will go very close.

Garswood (red)

In the curtain raiser, the Esher Cup (1:40), the selection is END OF LINE. Although he may not have beaten much on his debut, he couldn't have beaten them much more convincingly, coming off the bridle only until very late on. Another positive is that victory was on soft ground, so this surface shouldn't be alien to him. Sacred Act is the main danger, but it is a case of two horses with similar chances and the one at bigger odds is chosen.

On paper, the Gordon Richards Stakes (2:10) is a two horse race between Great Voltigeur victor Telescope and French Godolphin recruit Sky Hunter. However, I'm opposing both of these with a horse who is a very attractive price in CONTRIBUTER. His success on his seasonal reappearance was rather impressive, showing a smart turn of foot to beat a decent field quite convincingly. If he replicates that run, he should give the two market leaders a decent race. 

My final selection and one I've had my eye on for a couple of weeks is ELITE ARMY. This was following Arod's impressive maiden victory at Windsor, which resulted in him entering many people's Derby thoughts. That victory was in his second race, his first race was a third place behind none other than Elite Army. The Godolphin horse showed signs of greeness that day but possessed another ability to win the race nicely, looking smart in the process. His handicap mark following that race looks one that is winnable off and you'd like to think he is one of many smart 3 year olds that the "Boys in Blue" have to go to battle with this year. The main danger is Windshear, who wasn't a million miles away from the respected Cloudscape at Newmarket 8 days ago, the only danger being that he may not have recovered totally in time for today.

Enjoy your Friday

Happy Punting!

GO GALLANT IN NATIONAL

It's Easter Monday and in the racing world that can mean only one thing, the Irish Grand National. To me, the only way to whittle down a big field to a handful is to analyse previous renewals of the race and see which horses fit the criteria required to win.

THE CRITERIA

• Carrying less than 10-5 (mark of 136 or lower)
• Irish Bred
• 10 years old or less
• Course experience preferable
• Last race within two months of today.

It's rather disappointing that Tammys Hill does not line up, he was my main fancy for the race. However, I'm still going into the race with 3 selections and these are the horses that fit as much of the criteria as possible.

My main hope now is GALLANT OSCAR. He's in smashing form having won his last two races and he has form on ground similar to this. There is a doubt as to whether he will stay, but that doubt is the same for many of the opposition. If he does stay, he has a massive chance and his low weight (10-3) will aid him nicely as well.

Gallant Oscar

Another horse who should go well is GOLDEN WONDER. Although he's rather inexperienced over the chase fences, he's sure to thrive on the good ground. His shrewd trainer Dessie Hughes will no doubt have him primed for this.

My final selection is an outrageous price. A horse who won his last race and again has form on ground similar to this, one for Newcastle fans, it's TOON RIVER. I'm flabbergasted to see prices around 50/1 for him, far too big.

Other selections 

2:45- KITTEN ROCK. A horse who has been a non runner a couple of times this season and every time Barry Geraghty has talked him up to be a decent sort. He hasn't had the burden of having potentially tough races at Cheltenham and Aintree, something which favourite Clarcam has faced.

4:20- A race that usually throws up a good horse, I've opted for the Shark Hanlon pair, STOWAWAY SHARK and CLONDAW FARMER. The trainer is said to think quite highly of Stowaway Shark and believes that Clondaw Farmer may be even better on the good ground. Jockey bookings are positive (RP McNamara and Paddy Mullins respectively), the only danger to me is DOUBLE SCORES, who his trainer said will appreciate a softer surface.

6:35- INVESTMENTSUCCESS travelled as though he was going to win his debut, possibly the softer going contributing to his downfall. Better ground today should enhance his chances. SUNRAE SHADOW should also go well, having ran 3rd in a decent bumper behind useful sorts Value At Risk (ran in Cheltenham bumper) and Windsor Park (won easily on lastest outing). If he can replicate that, he has a nice chance.

Have a great Easter Monday

Happy Punting!

BIN TO WIN AT HAYDOCK

Rather late blog today, so it's going to be quite brief. Bold Chief has already come third for me at Haydock, hoping I can improve on that with these selections.

Haydock 3:15- BINCOMBE has won his last two races quite nicely and represents the in form Philip                                   Hobbs stable. Runs off a nice weight today and has performed well on good ground before.
                        Main danger is Midnight Sail.

Bincombe

Kempton 2:55- Zurigha is the favourite and rightfully so and his unveaten record at Kempton needs to be                               respected. However, I like the chances of RIBBONS, who has also won at the track. She

                        was unbeaten last year until she was beaten over 10 furlongs at Yarmouth, the extra 2 

                        furlongs wasn't to her liking that day. Back to a mile today and she's bred to improve as a 4                           year old.

Kempton 4:35- Plenty with chances in this race, in fact it wouldn't be a huge surprise if any of them won in                             the race. I've opted for SNOW TROUBLE, a horse who ran at the course on debut,                                   finishing a nice third, before he won a maiden at the Goodwood Festival under a determined                         Johnny Murtagh ride. I backed him that day and it was a decent maiden. Trainer Marcus                               Tregoning is said to be sweet on him, as is Murtagh and he could be smart. The likelihood is                         that the winner of this will become a good 3 year old.

Cork 4:40- NONCHALANT represents the Dermot Weld stable who are flying at present. Odds on                             favourite Kerkemi is a little vulnerable in my opinion and my pick is nicely bred.

Bath 6:30- Another maiden, this time over 5 furlongs. Nothing really stands out in this field, Come Uppence has a chance but I'm going for SIMPLY MAGIC. A half sister to Elleval, who's won a nice price in Dubai and Heddwyn, who won on his debut. Richard Hannon has already had a success with first season sire Zebedee with Magical Roundabout, who runs for the same owner as Simply Magic. She has a good chance.

Bath 7:00- Quite a decent race for the track is the Fillies Listed Stakes also over 5 furlongs. Some nice types in this, including MARCH, who looked classy last year before she was upped in trip to 6 furlongs, where she was beaten. Being dropped back to 5 furlongs will help her and she has since moved stable to sprint king Robert Cowell, who has a 50% strike rate at the track (5-10). Another I like is EXCELS BEAUTY, a horse who will love the trip and relish the firm ground. Her front running nature should put her in good stead here, 12/1 looks a very large price.

Have a good weekend

Happy punting!

PASSION FOR FASHION

Tomorrow sees the inaugural All Weather Championships day at Lingfield. The whole all weather has been geared towards this day and I hope this clever initiative pays off. There is plenty of money up for grabs, so much so that pretty much every horse will be winning the biggest pot of their career should they win tomorrow. So, without further a do...


Fillies' And Mares' (2:20)

I've been looking forward to seeing FASHION LINE on a racecourse again since her run in the Lincoln Trial Handicap at Wolverhampton in March. I was there that day and she definitely stood out as a horse to follow. She was racing against far more experienced horses that day but despite being less experienced than her opposition, she ran a great race to finish 4th. Also, bearing in mind she was the widest entering the straight, this only enhances her claims today. The only worry is that the distance may be a little on the short side, although you'd hope Jamie Spencer will hold her up and unleash her up the straight. Big chance.

Fashion Line winning at Wolverhampton in January.

3 Year Olds (2:55)

This race centres around Spring Cup winner Ertijaal. Although he only just scraped home at short odds that day, he's almost certain to improve for the run. If he improves on that win, he should win. However, should he not progress, PASSING STAR could be the horse to claim the spoils. I see no reason why any of the horses Ertijaal beat in the Spring Cup should reverse the form, so Passing Star could be the one. He's won three out of three so far, all of these being on the all-weather. He could be a horse going places, he has a definite place chance.

Mile (4:40)

GREY MIRAGE has won his last two races at the course, the latest being courtesy of a brilliant ride by Ryan Moore. He rides once again and it would be nice for Marco Botti to win on this day, as he has supported these Championships extremely well and has seemingly ran some of his better horses for the flat season over the winter on the all weather, namely Nell Gwyn second Euro Charline. Grey Mirage is in great form and should run a good race.

Also, you cannot ignore runaway Lady Wulfruna Stakes winner CHOOKIE ROYALE. He ran on the same day as Fashion Line at Wolverhampton, meaning I witnessed his demolition job. You couldn't not be impressed with the way he won that day. Ignore his run in the Lincoln last time out, it was too bad to be true. The ground was too soft for him and he'd ran plenty of races on synthetic surfaces beforehand, so maybe he just couldn't adapt to it that day. Back on the All Weather, the highest rated horse in the field has a nice chance.

Middle Distance (5:20)

The best race on the card is the concluding one, although it is also one of the hardest to decipher. Many of the horses who ran in the Winter Derby re-oppose and although the likes of Robin Hoods Bay (1st), Aussie Reigns (3rd), Dick Doughtywylie (4th) and favourite that day Grandeur (a disappointing 8th), I'm choosing to avoid the race altogether.

I've already praised Marco Botti in the blog and I like his representative in this race, SOLAR DEITY. Decent prep runs in Dubai should have him primed for this and providing the travelling hasn't taken anything out of him, he should go close for jockey Adam Kirby, who has really shone over the winter with his top quality riding.

Another horse of interest in the race is MARSHGATE LANE. He won two in a row at the back end of 2013 and if he's primed ready for the race, he should be there or thereabouts. Narrowly beat Solar Deity last time out although he's had a few runs since. Both should give a good account of themselves.

The creators of these All Weather Championships deserve a lot of praise for what they have done. Many perceive the all weather circuit as being pointless and boring but these Championships have really brought the world of all weather racing to life. Many were skeptical of having racing on Good Friday but I think it will turn out to be a great idea. Instead, it would've been raced on a Saturday where it wouldn't have gained the attention it warrants. I hope they get what they deserve, a smashing day's racing.

Enjoy your Good Friday

Happy Punting!

GO FARHH BROTHER

Just wanted to start of with how impressive the racing was at Newmarket yesterday. Beautiful weather, lovely ground and hopefully we saw some decent horses for the future. Mind Of Madness ran out a very easy winner, Sandiva and Euro Charline both ran stormers in the Nell Gwyn and perhaps most impressive of all, True Story's runaway victory in the Feilden, which has led to him featuring heavily amongst the big players for the Epsom Derby.

By looking at the title of my blog today, you may think that multiple Group 1 winner Farhh has turned at HQ. However, it's a reference to his full brother BASEM, who runs in the Wood Ditton Stakes (2:20). He also a full brother to a horse called Welcome Gift, who came second on debut to the 2012 St James Palace Stakes winner Most Improved before sluicing up in a Goodwood maiden by 10 lengths. If Basem is anything like his siblings, he should go close.

The other Godolphin horse in the race is of interest as well. FAMOUS KID also has some smart relatives, being a full brother to debut winner Oscan and a half brother to 2009 St Leger winner Mastery and Group 2 winner Kirklees. Being related to those two horses suggests that he would improve for a step up in distance but it also shows that he is bred to be smart and remember Mastery and Kirklees both started in race around this trip, so that shouldn't put you off Famous Kid.

Basem

A couple caught my eye in todays opener, the fillies maiden (1:45). On the theme of smart relations, LACING is a half sister to the stables decent runners Miss Work Of Art and Romantic Settings. Being by champion sprinter Equiano means she will not be short of pace and interestingly, when Ryan Moore talked about his rides today, he said that many of the unraced horses/horses running after a break will need the run. He didn't mention Lacing in that bracket. Big chance.

Another in that race is BELLE FILLE. She is related to a couple of nice horses of Aidan O'Brien's and the trainer having a 2 year old first time out winner yesterday is a big positive. 16/1 could be a huge price.

Happy Punting!

EUR ON TO A WINNER WITH CHARLINE

The Craven Meeting at Newmarket has always been a favourite of mine, although my success has been extremely low in years previous. It's the first chance in England to see which 3 year olds might become Classic contenders for the season and hopefully some decent 2 year olds will be out in force as well, the sort that make at summer Festivals like Royal Ascot, Goodwood and York. There are a few horses this year that I'm quite keen on, so maybe this year I'll have a few winners.

To start with, the main race on Day 1, the Nell Gwyn. A horse who I've been following since winning a Class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton is EURO CHARLINE. I was at Wolverhampton that day and you couldn't help but be blown away by the way she obliterated the, admittedly lowly opposition, in the race. She was well fancied then, as mirrored by the betting and she lived up to her billing. I was hoping that day that I'd witnessed a decent horse and you'd like to think that her flashy entries in this race and the Irish 1000 Guineas suggest she's something special.

I am really looking forward to the race, I haven't anticipated the appearance of a horse on the flat like this for quite a while. Just hope she can do the business.

Another horse who I'm keen on is FOLK MELODY. In truth, she could be anything, but her debut win on Newmarket's July Course suggested she was smart and hopefully she can build on that run and become a decent three year old.

But in short, I like Euro Charline and really hope she make a name for herself...

Euro Charline sluicing up at Wolverhampton.

Another horse who I'm keen on and has come in for some considerable support  is TRUE STORY, in the Feilden Stakes. He made a hugely promising debut, finishing a length and a half behind Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner Outstrip and followed this up with a comprehensive victory in a decent HQ maiden, doing so from a tricky position. The step up in trip will surely suit and he looks to be one of many decent 3 year olds that Godolphin have over middle distances this season. From the others, Barley Mow rates the main danger for me, but True Story looks a good sort. Big chance.

The 2:55 sees plenty of horses who have raced in this type of race, two of whom are the market principals, Wedding Ring and TOOFI. The selection is the latter of the two, a horse who should appreciate the step back in distance and will appreciate the ground.

The final race to be analysed is the concluding race, a Class 2 handicap run over 6 furlongs. I was amazed to see EXPERT with a double figure price next to his name, he has had a prep run behind the highly touted Ertijaal at Lingfield, he ran against some very decent juveniles last year, including Toormore and (fingers crossed) True Story and having Ryan Moore is hardly detrimental to his chances. Should go very close.

Another in the race who should go well is Marco Botti's QUIET WARRIOR. He's had two starts to date, both at Kempton, the second of which being a comfortable victory. Here, he beat the 2nd place horse by four and a half lengths, so you'd like to think he could be there or thereabouts in the race.


Happy Punting!

WILL TO WIN OR GOLDEN'S GREENHAM

Firstly, I'd just like to comment on last week's racing. Not just Pineau De Re's superb win in Aintree's feature race (tipped on the blog!) who after the race I found out was trained not that far away from where I live, which made the win even sweeter, but the Aintree meeting as a whole. Considering many see it as a mere afterthought following Cheltenham, it proved itself to be anything but this year. In actual fact, it delivered in areas where, in my opinion, Cheltenham came slightly short this year. Other highlights of mine include Warne's demolition job in Foxhunters, taking to the National obstacles like a duck to water and of course, the news that all 40 horses and jockeys came back safe and sound. In many ways, this was the best news of all. Racing had its annual day in the sun and this year, it could well and truly bask in that sun. Nobody could argue that. Also, the fact that more than half the field didn't finish the race shows that the race is still a huge challenge for the horse, so it pleased those that claim the safety changes have made the race less of a spectacle. A great race.

This week sees another National, this time the Scottish version at Ayr. However, I'll be previewing the racing at Newbury, which contains an awesome Greenham Stakes that is almost certain to provide clues for the Classics in months to come.

The Greenham Stakes (Newbury 2:55) seems to be revolving around two horses, Kingman and Night of Thunder. For me, with the reported problems that have surrounded the former's preparation for his 3 year old campaign, he might not be up for this, although he will no doubt improve for the run. Both of the latter's previous runs have come on a much softer surface than what he will encounter today and he seemed to thrive on that surface, which suggests he may be more at home on ground with more give.

I've opted for two, LAT HAWILL, who pulverised his opposition in what was, in truth, a poor Newcastle maiden. But he couldn't have beat them much more impressively than he did and if he lives up to what is quite a lofty reputation, he should go close. Hopefully, he can be one of many horses who lead a successful Botti batallion this season.

My other choice is GOLDEN TOWN. He was arguably the best horse on his debut in a Goodwood maiden, where he finished from a mile back to finish fourth. His second run saw him break his maiden tag, winning a shade cosily in the process. He might not be good enough to win today, but he is another who will definitely improve; 18/1 about him is absolutely massive.

Lat Hawill after his Newcastle victory

Golden Town winning a decent York maiden

Another decent race at Newbury that will provide clues for the Classic races, this time for fillies. is the 2:20. I like two in this as well. Marco Botti looks to have another decent horse under his wing with AL THAKHIRA. She won her first two races very impressively on a softer surface before becoming last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita. A return to ground with more give in it that he faced in America will be in her favour and if that race hasn't taken too much out of her, she looks to have a great chance.

My second selection is CORAL MIST. She won a nice Group 3 at Ayr last year by a very small margin. If she replicates that performance she is another who should go close.

My final selection, a little speculative, is NORAB in the 4:05. Eagle Top looks to have a great chance but I was amazed to see him at odds on, considering he has never seen a racecourse before. Galileo offspring have won the last two runnings of this race, which Norab is. He could do anything, a place chance at least for sure.

Ayr hold their flagship raceday this afternoon which contains the Scottish Grand National. The last few winners have all had placed form or better over 3 miles 7 furlongs or further and have been aged between 7 and 11. There aren't many horses this year who have form over that distance this year, so I've picked out horses with form closest to that distance. Three which stand out are ROALCO DES FARGES, ALPHA VICTOR and LACKAMON. 

Roalco Des Farges won impressively last time out at Newbury, jumping impeccably. He's come second in a Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown which suggests he may stay but you cannot be sure. If he does appreciate the step up in trip, he will go mightily close. 

Alpha Victor ran a superb race in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxter, finishing second to Goulanes. This shows that he will stay the trip, although you would have to hope it didn't take too much out of him. He can be prone to jumping errors too, so there can be none of that.

Lackamon won recently at Sedgefield over 3 miles 6 furlongs, so the trip shouldn't be a worry. The more the ground dries up the better for him. 40/1 around him could be a little ludicrous.

One final horse who doesn't really fit any bills is TIDAL BAY. The weight he carries is worrying, his age isn't ideal and he only ran last week. However, ever since there was rumour he was going to run in this after being unfortunately unseated early on in the Aintree Grand National last Saturday, I was drawn to him. He is clearly the class horse in the race, so much so I could not ignore an absolute legend. Let's get this straight, if he wins today, everybody will love it.

Roalco Des Farges (left) and Tidal Bay battling it out at Sandown. Hopefully this will be reminiscent of the finish today.

Another horse who has the burden of a big weight to carry today is My Tent Or Yours, in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, which is a handicap. He should be too good for these, but he will have to perform well to win this, giving most of the opposition nearly two stone in weight. One horse who receives plenty of weight is CLEVER COOKIE. He hasn't done much wrong this year, winning three races in a row. If he performs in a similar vein to what he's done so far this season, he could give the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle second a really good race.

Two more I like at Ayr are both trained by Alan King and ridden by Robert Thornton. In the 3:15, MANYRIVERSTOCROSS looks to have a good chance, having won his last race. Two of his rivals, Upsilon Bleu and His Excellency have not won for a very long time, whilst Valco De Touzaine had a very tough race last time out on a bottomless surface, which may have taken a lot out of him.

My other selection is MILES TO MEMPHIS in the concluding bumper. 5 year old Irish breds who had only one run over Rules previous to this have won the last three renewals of this race and before that the almighty Sprinter Sacre won. My selection fits the criteria for this, having sauntered clear in a Kempton bumper. He might not be the next Sprinter Sacre, but he could be decent in his own right.

Massive weekend of football in store with FA Cup semi finals and two massive games in the Premier League. Today it's Fulham vs Norwich, with the loser looking destined for the drop and tomorrow its Liverpool vs Man City, where the winner looks destined for the title.

The atmosphere at Anfield will be incredible, with the 25 year anniversary of Hillsborough as an added incentive to win what is a huge fixture.

But in truth, events such as Hillsborough put everything into perspective. Football is merely a game in comparison to family and friends. Hopefully all teams across the country will remember this with their minutes silences.

Have a good weekend everybody

Happy Punting!

GRAND NATIONAL- SIX OF THE BEST

Its here, the race that stops a nation. The people's race, the race that (almost) everybody bets on. This race is the Grand National. I hope everybody's had a look at the runners and riders and has made a decision, whether it be through closely scrutinising the form to picking a jockey/trainer they have heard of or even on the basis of their silks/name etc etc. If you haven't yet made your mind up, here are 6 I am keen on.

The two I've fancied in the long time leading up to the race are LONG RUN and MONBEG DUDE. Firstly Long Run, a horse who I've often lambasted for one reason or another. He's never quite fulfilled the potential that was assigned to him following his 2011 Gold Cup where he beat Kauto Star and Denman. He's a horse who has won two King George's and has placed in many other top quality steeplechase races, a top class racehorse in his pomp.

It was after his run in the Gold Cup of 2013, where he was a little one paced up the hill in coming third, where previously he'd have stormed up it, when it first came into my mind that the National could be the race for him. It was after his hugely disappointing runs in the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase's where I thought the National is definitely the race for him. It was his Kelso victory over Knockara Beau that showed he hadn't lost the will to win and retained his love for racing that made me consider him a lively contender for the race.

The change to the fences are less of a jumping test, which may help out Long Run's slightly unorthodox way of getting from one side of the fence to the other. His jockey is an expert over these fences, as shown with his wonderful ride on Warne in the Foxhunters. He should stay, even though he's not proven over a marathon trip. He should go on the decent ground too.

In short, three years ago, if somebody had of told you Long Run was going to run in a National in the future, you'd have laughed in their face. If you'd have been told he's running and is not carrying top weight, you'd have continued to laugh in their face. If you'd have been told he probably wouldn't be favourite under these circumstances, you'd be rolling on the floor in stitches of laughter.

If he re-captures some of his old form, he'll go VERY CLOSE.

Long Run

My other fancy for ages was MONBEG DUDE. A horse who will stay the distance, being an ex-Welsh National winner and will (hopefully) have the master Paul Carberry aboard. The only thing that worries me is his tendency to fluff his lines whilst jumping, something which will need to be a thing of the past if he's to have success over these daunting fences. If he does jump well and the part-owner's rather famous wife Zara Phillips has apparently schooled him intensively over the fences, he's another who'll go close.

Monbeg Dude with part-owner Rugby Union player Mike Tindall

My next two horses were ones that met criteria that I had obtained by analysing the last few winners of the race. Most of the previous winners meet my criteria.                                                        

MY CRITERIA- 

• 9-11 year olds most likely age of winner
• Horses have placed or better form at 3m 3f+
• Had 4 or more runs in the season
• Had its last run less than 60 days ago
• Not placed or better in a National previous. (Only horses recently to have won in it having ran in race before were Silver Birch (Fell 2006, won 2007) and Mon Mome (10th 2008, won 2009)

Two horses which fit these points are PINEAU DE RE, who should run a solid race for the doctor Richard Newland following his recent good third behind Fingal Bay and this year's Cheltenham cross country hero  BALTHAZAR KING (he could quite happily give me a croaky voice again if he powers up the Elbow).

Pineau De Re

Balthazar King

Two more who fit many parts of the criteria at bigger prices are RAZ DE MAREE, a horse who will be staying when others have cried enough and injured jockey Bryan Cooper thinks highly of him and QUITO DE LA ROQUE, a horse who was high class back in the day, having won a Grade 2 at Aintree a few years back, albeit over the conventional fences. A major doubt is whether he stays or not; if he does, who knows what might happen...

Raz De Maree (blue silks)

Quito De La Roque

Also wanted to point out my On The Other Hoof sweepstake horse WALKON. Could have had a better selection in my opinion, but at least it gives me something else to cheer on and of course, you never know with the National.

If your relatively new to horse racing and there's something you don't quite get or understand, feel free to message me on Twitter (@maxbanner17) and I'll try to answer it the best I can!

Whether you be an aquatic animal with mystical powers or an octogenarian who has bet on the race for years. A newcomer who's chosen the horse because their pet goldfish has the same name or a participant in a works sweepstake who's been given a 100-1 outsider, I wish you all luck.

And most importantly, lets hope all jockeys and horses return home safe and sound, as that is what its all about at the end of the day. We must keep a grasp on perspective. 

Happy Grand National Punting everybody!