The two I've fancied in the long time leading up to the race are LONG RUN and MONBEG DUDE. Firstly Long Run, a horse who I've often lambasted for one reason or another. He's never quite fulfilled the potential that was assigned to him following his 2011 Gold Cup where he beat Kauto Star and Denman. He's a horse who has won two King George's and has placed in many other top quality steeplechase races, a top class racehorse in his pomp.
It was after his run in the Gold Cup of 2013, where he was a little one paced up the hill in coming third, where previously he'd have stormed up it, when it first came into my mind that the National could be the race for him. It was after his hugely disappointing runs in the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase's where I thought the National is definitely the race for him. It was his Kelso victory over Knockara Beau that showed he hadn't lost the will to win and retained his love for racing that made me consider him a lively contender for the race.
The change to the fences are less of a jumping test, which may help out Long Run's slightly unorthodox way of getting from one side of the fence to the other. His jockey is an expert over these fences, as shown with his wonderful ride on Warne in the Foxhunters. He should stay, even though he's not proven over a marathon trip. He should go on the decent ground too.
In short, three years ago, if somebody had of told you Long Run was going to run in a National in the future, you'd have laughed in their face. If you'd have been told he's running and is not carrying top weight, you'd have continued to laugh in their face. If you'd have been told he probably wouldn't be favourite under these circumstances, you'd be rolling on the floor in stitches of laughter.
If he re-captures some of his old form, he'll go VERY CLOSE.
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| Long Run |
My other fancy for ages was MONBEG DUDE. A horse who will stay the distance, being an ex-Welsh National winner and will (hopefully) have the master Paul Carberry aboard. The only thing that worries me is his tendency to fluff his lines whilst jumping, something which will need to be a thing of the past if he's to have success over these daunting fences. If he does jump well and the part-owner's rather famous wife Zara Phillips has apparently schooled him intensively over the fences, he's another who'll go close.
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| Monbeg Dude with part-owner Rugby Union player Mike Tindall |
My next two horses were ones that met criteria that I had obtained by analysing the last few winners of the race. Most of the previous winners meet my criteria.
MY CRITERIA-
- 9-11 year olds most likely age of winner
- Horses have placed or better form at 3m 3f+
- Had 4 or more runs in the season
- Had its last run less than 60 days ago
- Not placed or better in a National previous. (Only horses recently to have won in it having ran in race before were Silver Birch (Fell 2006, won 2007) and Mon Mome (10th 2008, won 2009)
Two horses which fit these points are PINEAU DE RE, who should run a solid race for the doctor Richard Newland following his recent good third behind Fingal Bay and this year's Cheltenham cross country hero BALTHAZAR KING (he could quite happily give me a croaky voice again if he powers up the Elbow).
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| Pineau De Re |
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| Balthazar King |
Two more who fit many parts of the criteria at bigger prices are RAZ DE MAREE, a horse who will be staying when others have cried enough and injured jockey Bryan Cooper thinks highly of him and QUITO DE LA ROQUE, a horse who was high class back in the day, having won a Grade 2 at Aintree a few years back, albeit over the conventional fences. A major doubt is whether he stays or not; if he does, who knows what might happen...
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| Raz De Maree (blue silks) |
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| Quito De La Roque |
Also wanted to point out my On The Other Hoof sweepstake horse WALKON. Could have had a better selection in my opinion, but at least it gives me something else to cheer on and of course, you never know with the National.
If your relatively new to horse racing and there's something you don't quite get or understand, feel free to message me on Twitter (@maxbanner17) and I'll try to answer it the best I can!
Whether you be an aquatic animal with mystical powers or an octogenarian who has bet on the race for years. A newcomer who's chosen the horse because their pet goldfish has the same name or a participant in a works sweepstake who's been given a 100-1 outsider, I wish you all luck.
And most importantly, lets hope all jockeys and horses return home safe and sound, as that is what its all about at the end of the day. We must keep a grasp on perspective.
Happy Grand National Punting everybody!
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