Saturday 12 April 2014

WILL TO WIN OR GOLDEN'S GREENHAM

Firstly, I'd just like to comment on last week's racing. Not just Pineau De Re's superb win in Aintree's feature race (tipped on the blog!) who after the race I found out was trained not that far away from where I live, which made the win even sweeter, but the Aintree meeting as a whole. Considering many see it as a mere afterthought following Cheltenham, it proved itself to be anything but this year. In actual fact, it delivered in areas where, in my opinion, Cheltenham came slightly short this year. Other highlights of mine include Warne's demolition job in Foxhunters, taking to the National obstacles like a duck to water and of course, the news that all 40 horses and jockeys came back safe and sound. In many ways, this was the best news of all. Racing had its annual day in the sun and this year, it could well and truly bask in that sun. Nobody could argue that. Also, the fact that more than half the field didn't finish the race shows that the race is still a huge challenge for the horse, so it pleased those that claim the safety changes have made the race less of a spectacle. A great race.

This week sees another National, this time the Scottish version at Ayr. However, I'll be previewing the racing at Newbury, which contains an awesome Greenham Stakes that is almost certain to provide clues for the Classics in months to come.

The Greenham Stakes (Newbury 2:55) seems to be revolving around two horses, Kingman and Night of Thunder. For me, with the reported problems that have surrounded the former's preparation for his 3 year old campaign, he might not be up for this, although he will no doubt improve for the run. Both of the latter's previous runs have come on a much softer surface than what he will encounter today and he seemed to thrive on that surface, which suggests he may be more at home on ground with more give.

I've opted for two, LAT HAWILL, who pulverised his opposition in what was, in truth, a poor Newcastle maiden. But he couldn't have beat them much more impressively than he did and if he lives up to what is quite a lofty reputation, he should go close. Hopefully, he can be one of many horses who lead a successful Botti batallion this season.

My other choice is GOLDEN TOWN. He was arguably the best horse on his debut in a Goodwood maiden, where he finished from a mile back to finish fourth. His second run saw him break his maiden tag, winning a shade cosily in the process. He might not be good enough to win today, but he is another who will definitely improve; 18/1 about him is absolutely massive.
Lat Hawill after his Newcastle victory

Golden Town winning a decent York maiden

Another decent race at Newbury that will provide clues for the Classic races, this time for fillies. is the 2:20. I like two in this as well. Marco Botti looks to have another decent horse under his wing with AL THAKHIRA. She won her first two races very impressively on a softer surface before becoming last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita. A return to ground with more give in it that he faced in America will be in her favour and if that race hasn't taken too much out of her, she looks to have a great chance.

My second selection is CORAL MIST. She won a nice Group 3 at Ayr last year by a very small margin. If she replicates that performance she is another who should go close.

My final selection, a little speculative, is NORAB in the 4:05. Eagle Top looks to have a great chance but I was amazed to see him at odds on, considering he has never seen a racecourse before. Galileo offspring have won the last two runnings of this race, which Norab is. He could do anything, a place chance at least for sure.


Ayr hold their flagship raceday this afternoon which contains the Scottish Grand National. The last few winners have all had placed form or better over 3 miles 7 furlongs or further and have been aged between 7 and 11. There aren't many horses this year who have form over that distance this year, so I've picked out horses with form closest to that distance. Three which stand out are ROALCO DES FARGES, ALPHA VICTOR and LACKAMON. 

Roalco Des Farges won impressively last time out at Newbury, jumping impeccably. He's come second in a Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown which suggests he may stay but you cannot be sure. If he does appreciate the step up in trip, he will go mightily close. 

Alpha Victor ran a superb race in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxter, finishing second to Goulanes. This shows that he will stay the trip, although you would have to hope it didn't take too much out of him. He can be prone to jumping errors too, so there can be none of that.

Lackamon won recently at Sedgefield over 3 miles 6 furlongs, so the trip shouldn't be a worry. The more the ground dries up the better for him. 40/1 around him could be a little ludicrous.

One final horse who doesn't really fit any bills is TIDAL BAY. The weight he carries is worrying, his age isn't ideal and he only ran last week. However, ever since there was rumour he was going to run in this after being unfortunately unseated early on in the Aintree Grand National last Saturday, I was drawn to him. He is clearly the class horse in the race, so much so I could not ignore an absolute legend. Let's get this straight, if he wins today, everybody will love it.

Roalco Des Farges (left) and Tidal Bay battling it out at Sandown. Hopefully this will be reminiscent of the finish today.


Another horse who has the burden of a big weight to carry today is My Tent Or Yours, in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, which is a handicap. He should be too good for these, but he will have to perform well to win this, giving most of the opposition nearly two stone in weight. One horse who receives plenty of weight is CLEVER COOKIE. He hasn't done much wrong this year, winning three races in a row. If he performs in a similar vein to what he's done so far this season, he could give the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle second a really good race.

Two more I like at Ayr are both trained by Alan King and ridden by Robert Thornton. In the 3:15, MANYRIVERSTOCROSS looks to have a good chance, having won his last race. Two of his rivals, Upsilon Bleu and His Excellency have not won for a very long time, whilst Valco De Touzaine had a very tough race last time out on a bottomless surface, which may have taken a lot out of him.

My other selection is MILES TO MEMPHIS in the concluding bumper. 5 year old Irish breds who had only one run over Rules previous to this have won the last three renewals of this race and before that the almighty Sprinter Sacre won. My selection fits the criteria for this, having sauntered clear in a Kempton bumper. He might not be the next Sprinter Sacre, but he could be decent in his own right.



Massive weekend of football in store with FA Cup semi finals and two massive games in the Premier League. Today it's Fulham vs Norwich, with the loser looking destined for the drop and tomorrow its Liverpool vs Man City, where the winner looks destined for the title.

The atmosphere at Anfield will be incredible, with the 25 year anniversary of Hillsborough as an added incentive to win what is a huge fixture.

But in truth, events such as Hillsborough put everything into perspective. Football is merely a game in comparison to family and friends. Hopefully all teams across the country will remember this with their minutes silences.

Have a good weekend everybody

Happy Punting!

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