In the bet365 Mile (2:45), we see Lincoln second Tullius, QEII second Top Notch Tonto, winner of the races last year Trumpet Major and the winner of this race two years ago Penitent, Goodwood Group 3 winner Montiridge, Deauville Group 3 winner Fire Ship and Lennox Stakes winner GARSWOOD.
With the ground expected to be around soft, a horse who appreciates it will be required to win. Some of the field are more of a mudlark than others, namely Penitent, Tullius and Fire Ship. However, the ground may not be soft enough for these three to be seen at their best. Of the others, Trumpet Major seems to have lost his way a little of late, so he is opposed for this. Top Notch Tonto was one of the highlight's of the flat season last year, exceeding everybody's expectations. Whether or not 2013's runs were a fluke or not is unknown, I'm hoping they weren't flashes in the pan, but in case they were, he is also opposed, especially given his price. Of the other two, it was just a case of going for the horse who appealed more at the odds and this was Garswood. Montiridge is 2 from 2 at the track, which warrants respect, although his form did tail towards the back end of last year. But if he recaptures his best form, he has a chance. Garswood arguably ran the best race of his career last time out when coming third behind the wonder mare Moonlight Cloud on Arc day. He will relish the ground and has the one and only Ryan Moore on board (his ride aboard Garswood at Goodwood last year made my top 5 flat rides of the year- post from 2nd January 2014). He has a lot of things in his favour and I'd like to think he will go very close.
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| Garswood (red) |
In the curtain raiser, the Esher Cup (1:40), the selection is END OF LINE. Although he may not have beaten much on his debut, he couldn't have beaten them much more convincingly, coming off the bridle only until very late on. Another positive is that victory was on soft ground, so this surface shouldn't be alien to him. Sacred Act is the main danger, but it is a case of two horses with similar chances and the one at bigger odds is chosen.
On paper, the Gordon Richards Stakes (2:10) is a two horse race between Great Voltigeur victor Telescope and French Godolphin recruit Sky Hunter. However, I'm opposing both of these with a horse who is a very attractive price in CONTRIBUTER. His success on his seasonal reappearance was rather impressive, showing a smart turn of foot to beat a decent field quite convincingly. If he replicates that run, he should give the two market leaders a decent race.
My final selection and one I've had my eye on for a couple of weeks is ELITE ARMY. This was following Arod's impressive maiden victory at Windsor, which resulted in him entering many people's Derby thoughts. That victory was in his second race, his first race was a third place behind none other than Elite Army. The Godolphin horse showed signs of greeness that day but possessed another ability to win the race nicely, looking smart in the process. His handicap mark following that race looks one that is winnable off and you'd like to think he is one of many smart 3 year olds that the "Boys in Blue" have to go to battle with this year. The main danger is Windshear, who wasn't a million miles away from the respected Cloudscape at Newmarket 8 days ago, the only danger being that he may not have recovered totally in time for today.
Enjoy your Friday
Happy Punting!
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