Now, if Ascot's feature race had have been ran a month ago, chances are that BALLYCASEY would not have been the selection. This is because Willie Mullins' horses were not that prolific in England (outside of the Cheltenham Festival anyway). However, in recent weeks, he's notched up two winners, both at Sandown (Gitane Du Berlais and Uranna). Therefore, you can be slightly more confident about his hopes. As for Ballycasey himself, he was a four and a half length second behind Carlingford Lough in the Growise Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, which appears to be very smart form. His two runs this season comprised of a comprehensive victory in a Gowran chase followed by a relative no-show in the Dial-A-Bet at Leopardstown over the festive period. That was not a true representation of his quality and today's trip of two miles five furlongs is definitely more up his street. Ruby Walsh chooses to ride him over Champagne Fever in Ireland, he has a big opportunity to notch up a second Grade 1 success.
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| Ballycasey |
Ptit Zig is arguable our best novice chaser currently, along with Coneygree. Today will certainly be an acid test of his JLT credentials; if he can win this he'll be a likely favourite for that race, ahead even of the almighty Vautour. However, Paul Nicholls has ran six horses that were aged six in this race in recent years, all of whom were beaten. The likelihood is that Ptit Zig is better than all of them but a stat is a stat and as you well know, I love a stat!
Balder Succes also takes his place in the field and whilst I respect him massively as a horse, I'm just not sure as to whether he's a true Grade 1 horse now out of novice company. Chances are he'll find at least one too good today. Ma Filleule won last years Topham over the National fences so this is a big step up. She didn't find a lot off the bridle in a Listed race last time out and she will struggle here if similar was to happen again. Nicky Henderson's form over fences is a worry too.
Now for the rest of Ascot...
2:05- Although Virak beat DEPUTY DAN earlier this season, the tables may well be flipped in the Reynoldstown (Grade 2). Oliver Sherwood's runner ran a respectable race behind Sego Success at Warwick last time out, his best run for a while. First time blinkers may sharpen him up a bit to beat Virak, who looked as though he'd been running through treacle in the Feltham, finishing a very tired horse. Who's to know what that might have taken out of him? Ainsi Field racked up a string of wins on summer ground in August, his run coming to an end at the hands of Splash Of Ginge. He'll have to defy a 112-day absence here which won't be easy and, to be honest, he didn't beat much in his summer novice chases so will have to step up markedly on those. Phone Home looks out of his depth.
3:15- In the last four years, including jockeys claims, the highest official rating to win this race was 125. That would mean that this is a two horse race, between UNIQUE DE COTTE and Sea Wall. As the latter looks out of his depth, it should pay to stick with David Pipe's runner. He showed last time out that three miles was not really his bag so this drop in trip seems logical. Tom Scudamore doing 10-3 interesting and together with a first time tongue-tie, he really is a fascinating contender.
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| Deputy Dan (left) coming second in last years Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. |
3:15- In the last four years, including jockeys claims, the highest official rating to win this race was 125. That would mean that this is a two horse race, between UNIQUE DE COTTE and Sea Wall. As the latter looks out of his depth, it should pay to stick with David Pipe's runner. He showed last time out that three miles was not really his bag so this drop in trip seems logical. Tom Scudamore doing 10-3 interesting and together with a first time tongue-tie, he really is a fascinating contender.
4:20- Otago Trail has bossed his last two races from the front, winning by football pitches. However, they were against lesser opposition and in much heavier ground. He'll probably find today's ground just soft enough but it is not ideal for him. Saint Charles won nicely last time out but the drop in trip does not make sense for me, he looks more of a stayer than a speed horse. Instead, oppose them both with Paul Nicholls' British debutant, SIRABAD. He won his last race in Auteuil by twelve lengths so he is clearly no fool. Could well prove good enough to win this.
4:50- ALWAYS LION is well regarded by trainer Ben Pauling. His run at Cheltenham behind Definitly Red and Arabic History was not only a good run itself but looks good form too. Could well be capable of taking another Saturday bumper for Pauling. BIG CHIEF BENNY ran a smashing debut despite being as green as grass. Himself and the winner that day were a mile clear of the rest and providing he's made the expected improvement, he has to warrant respect here.
Haydock host their Grand National trial but that race looks devilish to decipher so it may be best left alone. They also have a competitive Pertemps qualifier (3:25), where my first of three selections is AQALIM. In his runs thus far, he's suggested that he wants a proper trip and juice in the ground, both of which he gets today. Definitely not the strongest traveller but the booking of AP McCoy is certain to boost his chances as he will be able to cajole him along in the finish. Another eye-catching booking is Richard Johnson aboard RUN RUCTIONS RUN. Most of her runs so far this season have not inspired much but last time out at Musselburgh behind Dawalan was a lot more promising. That was her first try over three miles so hopefully another bold show is in the offing. Finally, there's RACING EUROPE. He should stay the distance and his last run on the same day as Run Ruction Run's on Musselburgh's Festival trial day in the Albert Bartlett trial was decent enough, behind some useful types. One to watch, especially of his low weight.
In the Grade 2 Novices Hurdle (4:00), proven mudlark DEFINITLY RED is fancied to take the spoils. However, this horse is more than just a soft ground specialist; he's classy too. His demolition job in a Cheltenham bumper in November is evidence of this. Fletchers Flyer and Ballagh will be tough nuts to crack but Brian Ellison's runner looks well capable of it.
Haydock host their Grand National trial but that race looks devilish to decipher so it may be best left alone. They also have a competitive Pertemps qualifier (3:25), where my first of three selections is AQALIM. In his runs thus far, he's suggested that he wants a proper trip and juice in the ground, both of which he gets today. Definitely not the strongest traveller but the booking of AP McCoy is certain to boost his chances as he will be able to cajole him along in the finish. Another eye-catching booking is Richard Johnson aboard RUN RUCTIONS RUN. Most of her runs so far this season have not inspired much but last time out at Musselburgh behind Dawalan was a lot more promising. That was her first try over three miles so hopefully another bold show is in the offing. Finally, there's RACING EUROPE. He should stay the distance and his last run on the same day as Run Ruction Run's on Musselburgh's Festival trial day in the Albert Bartlett trial was decent enough, behind some useful types. One to watch, especially of his low weight.
In the Grade 2 Novices Hurdle (4:00), proven mudlark DEFINITLY RED is fancied to take the spoils. However, this horse is more than just a soft ground specialist; he's classy too. His demolition job in a Cheltenham bumper in November is evidence of this. Fletchers Flyer and Ballagh will be tough nuts to crack but Brian Ellison's runner looks well capable of it.
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| Definitly Red |
Wincanton hold their biggest race of the year with the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle (3:35). Market principals Irving and Sign Of A Victory both ran shockers last time out, even if they were in the wake of the breathtaking Faugheen. Although there were reason for those lacklustre performances, it leaves doubts above them. This is why BLUE HERON may be a safer alternative. He's got a lot to find on his best form with Irving but there is no doubting his current form. A solid run in the Greatwood and a third behind Faugheen in the aforementioned Christmas Hurdle put him in with a big chance here.
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| Blue Heron |
2:30 Wincanton- SOUTHFIELD VIC ran a poor race last time out at Cheltenham but, forgetting about that, he looks well capable of making amends for it here in an easier race. THEMANFROM MINELLA didn't run the worst of races at Leicester last time out when finishing runner-up. He could well improve one place today.
Two more speculative picks...
2:35 Lingfield- CORNELIOUS was well fancied for his debut suggesting he's quite highly thought of. He came second that day and with the expected improvement, he may be able to beat the pair of perennial runners up Pathway To Honour and Reetaj. He'll be sure to try and not fall into that category of always finishing with a victory today. Andrea Atzeni is an eye-catching booking.
3:20 Gowran Park- Very speculative this one but I just felt THUNDER ZONE is massively overpriced. He's got decent form with some of the best juveniles in Ireland such as Kalkir, Fiscal Focus and Dicosimo and with the lumps of weight he receives today, he could be one to keep an eye on at 33/1. The Fred Winter at Cheltenham is probably the long term goal.
Enjoy your Saturday, the FA Cup and Six Nations action
Enjoy your Saturday, the FA Cup and Six Nations action
Happy Punting!
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