For CARLINGFORD LOUGH looks as though he has what it takes to give McCoy another big race success. He has form lines with the Mullins pair of Boston Bob and On His Own and although they both beat him last time out in the Lexus, there is reason to believe that he can reverse that form. That was Carlingford Lough's first run for 243 days, so any cobwebs that existed pre-race were sure to be blown away afterwards. He travelled supremely that day and looked a possible winner heading towards the last but eventually ran out of steam, probably due to a lack of race fitness. He's a two time Grade 1 and Galway Plate winner so he is certainly has the class to win it.
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| Words cannot really do justice to AP McCoy's extraordinary career. His rides can though. Here with Carlingford Lough. |
It may be a case of it being too soft for Boston Bob and not soft enough for On His Own. Boston Bob has had three runs this season, none of which have been easy to enthuse about whilst On His Own ran a stormer in first time cheekpieces when second behind Road To Riches in that Lexus but he appears to be a bit of a "crossbar" horse. Always knocking on the door in the big races but never seeming to open it, the Cheltenham Gold Cup being a fine example as he was thwarted by Lord Windermere by the narrowest of margins. Carlingford Lough could well be the one to "un-Lough" the door...
Lord Windermere re-opposes again but his season looks geared towards Cheltenham again as it did last season. Foxrock will have to step up drastically on his best form whilst First Lieutenant just doesn't look up to this grade anymore. Home Farm and Texas Jack have questions regarding ability for this to answer too.
The quartet of Grade 1's on this Leopardstown card kick off at 1:15, with the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. On paper, it appears to be a match race behind the exciting pair of Kalkir and Vercingetorix. But, that might not be the case, as Gigginstown filly PETITE PARISIENNE looks a viable alternative. She came second on her British debut in a farcical race whereby Chatham House Rule managed to steal an easy lead from the off under Davy Condon, so much so he was never headed. Petite Parisienne looks likely to reverse that form and looks threatening with her seven pound allowance. Officeux is another contender based on his recent easy win. But he'll have to step up a lot on that as his two previous runs leave him with a lot to find against Kalkir.
The Deloitte Novice Hurdle (2:15) looks a wide open contest, where Alvisio Ville is a warm favourite. However, there are plenty of smart hopefuls in this, one of whom is NICHOLS CANYON. He won the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse smartly and we're never to know what he might have done in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown if not for unseating at the third. On his best form, he's got a big chance.
WINDSOR PARK also has a chance. He was just short of what was required at Leopardstown last time out in a quality Grade 2 but there's hope that a drop in trip and a faster pace today will improve his jumping, because he will definitely need to if he's to play a part here.
Champion Bumper winner Silver Concorde must be respected but may struggle here with only one hurdles run under his belt. Identity Thief will have to step up considerably on his narrow beating of Snow Falcon. McKinley will probably relish further and Sempre Medici will have to get rid of his somewhat haphazard jumping.
The Flogas Novice Chase concludes my preview of the Grade 1's on this card. Valseur Lido clearly has a favourite's chance but, in my eyes, he's at his almighty best when it's like a bog. It won't be like that today and it may make him slightly vulnerable. A horse who he beat at Fairyhouse was APACHE STRONGHOLD. Noel Meade's runner has since gone on to run a cracker behind Don Poli at Leopardstown over three miles. This proved he is a strong stayer and could definitely give Valseur Lido something to think about.
ADRIANA DES MOTTES cannot be discounted either. You can ignore her run last time out as she basically unshipped her jockey (despite the form saying she came a distant sixth). Prior to that, she showed battling qualities to fend off Rule The World, who re-opposes today. She's gets all the allowances today meaning she carries seventeen pounds less than the rest of the field. This could prove vital for this Grade 1 winning hurdler against these older geldings.
Le Vent D'Antan may find the trip a struggle, Jarry D'honneur backers would have to worry about the bounce effect, Shanahan's Turn may find a few too good and The Tullow Tank has looked a lost cause this season, which is massively disappointing for a horse who was favourite to beat Vautour on this card last year.
Over at Exeter, JANVERT has a chance in their 1:25. He's ran a against some decent sorts recently, including the promising Out Sam at Ascot. Today's task is easier, Theeagleislanded looks the main threat.
In the bumper (4:30), DRUCILLA looks certain to improve on her debut run, where she came a very respectable second despite being as green as grass whilst ONE LUCKY LORD has a chance too, given she ran a respectable fifth in a fairly hot maiden at the course.
AP McCoy looks set to become champion for the twentieth time in a row. How many sportspeople/teams have reigned supreme in their field for twenty years running, may I ask you?
Enjoy your Sunday
Happy Punting!
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