Race 1- Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 1:30
JOLLYALLAN- come along nicely this season. Hasn't run a bad race thus far and isn't adverse to getting into a battle. His narrow second behind Garde La Victoire is rock solid; in fact I think it's some of the best form on offer. AP McCoy doing the steering on what is his last Cheltenham Festival (have you heard he's retiring) which he could kick off with a winner.
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| Jollyallan |
SHANESHILL- Before Vautour's runaway victory in last year's renewal, the three winners before that all ran in the Champion Bumper from the year previous. He was second in that, behind Silver Concorde and has entered proceedings into this race fairly quietly. A disappointment when beaten at 4/9 by No More Heroes over 2 and-a-half miles, connections will be hoping the drop in trip by half a mile will eke out a little more improvement in him. The ground won't inconvenience him and another contender who won't shirk away from a battle.
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| Shaneshill |
As for the favourites, both Douvan and L'Ami Serge have never been truly tested, always winning on the bridle. The former could well be Vautour mark II but cannot be backed at half the price his stablemate was whilst the latter has never tried good ground in this country so that would be a worry.
Race 2- Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2:05
VIBRATO VALTAT- Once an enigmatic horse but Nicholls seems to have discovered the tactics that see him at his best. If he's waited with, he could be produced late; to good effect if things fall apart in front. A thrice Graded winner this season, ignore him completely at your peril.
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| Vibrato Valtat |
Obviously, the favourite for this is the almighty Un De Sceaux. In all honesty, he's the most likely winner but I cannot have him at odds on. The only thing that could do for him is his exuberant jumping out in front may lead to errors that could result in him deposing of Ruby Walsh, who sure is in for one rollercoaster ride.
Race 3- Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2:40
NED STARK- Alan King's contender has a massive chance in this. He looks nicely weighted, his form looks strong and his only defeat this season came behind smart pair Ptit Zig and Champagne West at Cheltenham. He ran well with that pair for a long way then, running a better race than the form suggests. He's a scopey sort who should see out the trip nicely. The only worry is that he might appreciate some more cut in the ground. However, if he copes with the surface, he's the one to beat.
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| Ned Stark (orange) |
WHAT A WARRIOR- Loves good ground, forget about his no-show in the Hennessy. Could outrun his odds at 33/1.
Race 4- THE CHAMPION HURDLE (Grade 1) 3:20
Possibly the biggest talking race of the whole week. Many questions to be answered...
1) Is Faugheen good enough? Most likely, yes. Should take all the beating but it's the strongest race he's ran in and is no price for me.
2) Would The New One have won last year if for no interference? No, not for me.
3) Should The New One be favourite? No, he's had a tough season for me and I see no reason why he should reverse the form from last year with Jezki.
4) Can Jezki win it again? Yes. His season was geared towards this last year and it looks to be a similar story this time around. He's been in Hurricane Fly's wake all season but Jessica Harrington will have him primed for this and can retain his title.
5) Does Hurricane Fly struggle at Cheltenham? Despite being a twice Champion hurdle winner, I would say yes. He often hits a flat spot and has been found to find little up the hill (i.e. last year). However, his price makes him backable for me. He seems to be better than ever at Leopardstown this year and IF he can run the race of his life, the grand old timer could give the younger guns a proper fright. May need some rain though that might not come.
6) Can anything outside the Top 4 win? Although the likes of Arctic Fire, Kitten Rock and Vaniteux demand respect, they'll have to perform miracle to pass the post first.
Therefore... JEZKI could well prove that last year was no Cheltenham fluke whilst HURRICANE FLY cannot be overlooked chasing his third title.
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| Two warriors in battle- Jezki (white cap) and Hurricane Fly (blue) |
Race 5- Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 4:00
This race revolves around Annie Power. Will take all the beating. Don't do odds on but, in my opinion, she looked like she might need the run. But if she's even 70%, she should give these a good walloping. Three alternatives at nice prices though...
POLLY PEACHUM- Stormed home in a mares handicap here in April. Appreciates good ground, fell when tired on bottomless ground last time out. Had a bit of a break since, if she's over that then she's got a squeak in this.
L'UNIQUE- Third in this last year and a former Grade 1 winner. Another who will relish the good ground and could have a say if she puts everything together.
THE PIRATE'S QUEEN- Denis O'Regan's patient tactics have been put to good use on another Alan King entrant this season. Has looked classy and her form is relatively strong. The hill is a worry but she has the class to not be discounted entirely.
Glen's Melody, Carole's Spirit and Bitofapuzzle all have chances but probably want softer ground.
Race 6- National Hunt Chase- "The Four Miler" (Listed) 4:40
SEGO SUCCESS- Alan King knows what it takes to win this, winning it in 2008 with Old Benny and last year with Midnight Prayer. This horse has improved at a rate of knots thus far this season and looks the sort that will stay until sunset. Midnight Prayer ran his last race at Warwick before this last year, Sego Success has done the same.
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| Sego Success |
VERY WOOD- Michael O'Leary threw a spanner into my works by entering last years Albert Bartlett win in this as opposed to the RSA at the last minute. Another who should stay all day, he looked to return to his very best again when winning a Grade 2 at Navan last time out, after appearing lost when pulling up in his two starts previous. Nina Carberry is a top pilot and class could well prevail- a Grade 1 winner remember.
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| Very Wood |
Vivaldi Collonges has a chance too but his Cheltenham runs have to be a slight worry. Never quite performed with much zeal here (the day he was second, he was favourite and appeared to be the winner but seemed to find little up the hill.)
Race 7- Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) 5:15
HORIZONTAL SPEED- Won nicely at Wetherby last time out after competing against superior horses beforehand, including World Hurdle hopeful Saphir Du Rheu. Could hardly go a day without backing a Richard Johnson horse either...
GENEROUS RANSOM- plenty of these have similar form lines but out of them all, I've opted for Nick Gifford's runner. Won over course and distance last time out, doing so nicely. Has a good chance of following that up.
To summarise
NED STARK- NAP
JEZKI- NB
JOLLYALLAN- L15
SEGO SUCCESS- L15
Hope everybody has a good first day at Cheltenham
Happy Cheltenham Punting!
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