Wednesday 11 March 2015

Cheltenham- Day Three

Tuesday's dismal display was long forgotten as the blog fired in three winners on Day Two, courtesy of Windsor Park and Lord Davy Russell, Qualando at generous odds of 25/1 and of course, Dodging Bullets, who showed why I've been loyal to him for most of the season. Three Grade 1 wins this season, topped off by a great win in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, putting Sire De Grugy firmly in his place. Sprinter Sacre clearly wasn't his former invincible self and it looks as though he probably never will be. Somersby and Special Tiara both ran stormers and are a massive credit to connections.

Anyway, we move onto Day Three, where there's only the six races to look at...

Race 1- JLT Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1:30

This promises to be one of the races of the week. We hark back to Tuesday with another Walsh/Mullins/Ricci favourite, courtesy of Vautour. Last year's Supreme winner has looked a smart chaser thus far, the only blip in his copybook being a lacklustre display at Leopardstown on bottomless ground over Christmas. However, I'm not going to back him at that price.

PTIT ZIG- Been quite the revelation since tackling fences, winning his first four chase starts. His first defeat came with a fall in the Ascot Chase. However, before that, he looked a smart individual. A usually nifty jumper, shown in his very easy victory here over Champagne West; if he gets into a nice rhythm, he could well give Vautour a lot to think about and continue Paul Nicholls' brilliant Festival. Good ground would be a slight concern though.

Ptit Zig

APACHE STRONGHOLD- Despite being beaten by Vautour over hurdles, I don't think he can be too easily discredited here. He reverse form with Valseur Lido last time out and before that, was a three length second behind RSA winner Don Poli. Given a patient ride by Paul Carberry in the Flogas and could have a chance again under similar tactics.

Apache Stronghold

Valseur Lido also runs in this; he's a very smart performer but he ideally needs the heavens to open to be seen at his best.

Race 2- Pertemps Network Final (Listed Handicap Hurdle) 2:05

A very hard race to whittle down to a final three but I managed in the end...

DAWALAN- Nicky Henderson seems to have worked the oracle with this once enigmatic horse. A step up in trip has definitely seen him to best effect and has looked a force to be reckoned with this year; very impressive for a horse who usually struggled to get his head in front. He's been a grand servant to me this year on the betting front and is well worth his place in this field.

JOIN THE CLAN- His relationship with ten-pound claimer Patrick Cowley has seen him win his last two races. He'll stay all day but the ground is a worry. However, Jonjo O'Neill has ran smart sorts in this previously, including RSA winner and Gold Cup hopeful Holywell, Irish National winner Shutthefrontdoor and Gold Cup winner Synchronised. Although they didn't all win this, it shows that Jonjo is inclined to run smart horses in this.

RUN RUCTIONS RUN- Been knocking on the door plenty of times this season without success. They include placed performances in races of this nature. Paul Carberry a very interesting booking.

Race 3- Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2:40

A fairly average renewal of this race. Don Cossack has excelled in small field this season but this is a completely different kettle of fish. Nicky Henderson's poor chase form has to be a worry regarding Ma Filleule's chances whilst Balder Succes' Cheltenham form of FUFU has to be a concern.

JOHNS SPIRIT- A horse who excels at Cheltenham, albeit in handicaps. However, his sixth place in the King George was better than the bare form suggests; he travelled well for a long way that day. The step back to 2 miles 5 furlongs will be right up his street on ground he will relish.

John's Spirit

WISHFULL THINKING- Another horse who will benefit from the drop down in trip and another who will love the good ground. A dual Grade 2 winner this season and the top rated in the field; his course form isn't all that bad either (he knows how to win here). 33/1 is an outstanding price.

Wishfull Thinking

Race 4- WORLD HURDLE (GRADE 1) 3:20

Considering this is a Championship race, it really is a riddle wrapped in an enigma shrouded in a mystery. It looks devoid of a true star, so it really is up for grabs.

LIEUTENANT COLONEL- He's been a revelation this season, with two Grade 1 wins in Ireland. Another horse who's been good to me so it would be stupid to ignore him now. He's got a great attitude and should be capable of putting in another bold showing here.

Lieutenant Colonel

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT- For me, he was the eye-catcher of the Cleeve Hurdle. He was the only one of the front three that hadn't had a recent run, so is likely to be primed for this. Saphir Du Rheu shouldn't be half his price in my opinion whilst Reve De Sivola hasn't got his ground, is unlikely to get an easy lead and it's not being run in the winter. Connections are bullish about his chances for this too.

Un Temps Pour Tout

MONKSLAND- Ran a superb race after a 730-day absence behind Lieutenant Colonel and Jetson in Leopardstown's Christmas Hurdle, following that up with a narrow defeat behind Dedigout. Could well be the sort who's had his season geared towards this race and with Paul Carberry in the saddle, expect patient tactics and a late pounce.

Monksland

Race 5- Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) 4:00

Horses with an Official Rating of 140 or less have dominated this in recent years.

MONETAIRE (OR 138)- A classic Pipe horse in this race, for the same owner that won it with Ballynagour (2014) and Salut Flo (2012). A lightly raced sort, like the two horses listed, he could be well treated in this. Will need to improve his jumping and good ground a concern, but if these matter little, he'll take all the beating here.

BALLY LEGEND (OR 139)- Last year's BetBright Chase winner who know only carries a pound more than that day. Course form too, 33/1 looks generous.

FILBERT (OR 138)- First time cheekpieces worked well at Wincanton last time out. Richard Johnson will be looking to get everything out of him like he did then. 33/1 looks big again.

Race 6- Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Class 2) 4:40

GOLD BULLET- Well beaten on his reappearance after a 421-day absence but ran a far more promising race when third at Fairyhouse last time out. Likely to be tuned up nicely for this after those two runs and with talented amateur Derek O'Connor taking the ride, he certainly has a big chance.

TAP NIGHT- Winless for over two years now but his recent run here was promising. He was third then, aided by a massive tumble down the weights. Delivered too late then, his run was eye-catching then. Unseated in the BetBright last time out so no idea what he might have done then. Has a five pound claimer on board meaning he carries five pounds less than he ever has done in a handicap. If he's still got some of his ability, he's well handicapped enough to play a big part here.

GOLD BULLET- NAP
LIEUTENANT COLONEL- NB
DAWALAN- L15
MONETAIRE- L15

Have a wonderful Day 3 and...

Happy Cheltenham Punting!


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