The day's feature race is the Melling Chase (3:25), in which the talented pair of greys CHAMPAGNE FEVER and AL FEROF are selected. Champagne Fever missed his engagement at Cheltenham due to his stablemate Un Atout apparently taking a liking to him, so much so he bit him. His record over fences is somewhat sketchy but is a real force if he can get into a rhythm. Deemed a non-stayer in the King George, he followed that up with a fall when entering a duel with Don Cossack at Thurles. It's hard to judge whether he'd have won that day but his jumping was slick when winning a confidence booster at Gowran. The question is rhythm. If he gets into one, at the front, he may prove hard to peg back.
 |
| Champagne Fever (right). Some photo! |
Al Ferof ran in the same King George, where he finished a respectable third. He too missed Cheltenham, so you'd hope that Paul Nicholls will have him nicely primed for this. A smart horse on his day but not one without problems. Also a horse who goes very well fresh- he's won five of his last six races after a sixty-day break, the only loss being down to a fall when looking the likely winner.
 |
| Al Ferof |
As for the rest, I would worry about Don Cossack and Balder Succes if the field size stayed at ten. Balder Succes has only won one of his eleven races in double figure fields, that being a win in a Plumpton novice hurdle at 4/9. Don Cossack has been able to dominate in small fields in most of his races; the Ryanair was a different kettle of fish, where he could only manage third.
You'd have to worry that Cue Card's injuries have taken their toll on him, with his most recent performances lacking the lustre that he has shown previously. Sire De Grugy steps up in trip but the ground would be a concern given he is seen to his best when there's cut in the ground. Johns Spirit, Simply Ned, Wishfull Thinking and Croco Bay look likely to come up short.
The Mildmay Novices' Chase (2:5o) really looks a woeful renewal. The class horse is World Hurdle runner up Saphir Du Rheu. If he can leave his patchy jumps campaign at the start of the season behind him, he's likely to win this. However, in terms of value, IRISH CAVALIER could run a nice race given first time cheekpieces clearly worked the oracle at Cheltenham where he ran the race of his life and RAWNAQ could outrun his price based on his win over Gilgamboa at Navan, flukey or not. This was followed up by a useful third in a Cheltenham handicap chase, suggesting that the win over the Ryanair Gold Cup may not have been totally undeserved.
Ainsi Fideles may struggle with more horses to contend with. Carole's Destrier is overpriced in comparison to my selections. Carraig Mor may want it softer. Close Touch has looked a jaded horse in his last two runs. Irish Saint uncertain to stay and may want it softer also. Would be surprised if Wakanda is good enough.
The National fences get another sighting courtesy of the Topham Chase (4:05). The first two ahead of Rawnaq at Cheltenham are both fancied in this. For DARNA and MONETAIRE both look to have bold chances in this. Both are in clearly in good form too. Looking at Monetaire in particular, he ran a top race at Cheltenham bearing in mind he didn't get the best of starts. RUBEN COTTER completes my selections for this. Won well at Kempton after a long absence last time out. Bounce factor a worry but you would reckon Nicholls would have him ready for it.
 |
| Monetaire (beige and green) and Darna (yellow and blue)... Plus Rawnaq (black and white) |
 |
| Ruben Cotter |
A couple for the Top Novices' Hurdle (2:15). VAGO COLLONGES bypassed Cheltenham for this and connections should be able to reap the rewards. The quick ground is a worry but he brings some strong form here with placed efforts behind Ordo Ab Chao and Days Of Heaven in his last two starts. CARDINAL WALTER won his last race easily and is fancied to overturn the form with Qewy on this going. Glingerburn is a worthy favourite but short enough. Cyrus Darius takes a big step up but could be anything whilst Jolly's Cracked It is starting to look a little exposed at this level and may want rain.
 |
| Vago Collonges |
 |
| Cardinal Walter in his flat days (pink and green) |
The action commences on day two with a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle (1:40). OLOFI was once a smart horse, a Greatwood winner, so off his mark of 140, he has the potential to do something big. All four of his runs this season have been in Cheltenham against superior opposition where he's performed with credit on most of those occasions. Nicely brought along for this. Tom George's other runner SOME BUCKLE cannot be discounted either. His second behind Glingerburn at Doncaster, his Cheltenham fifth behind at Ordo Ab Chao at a price and his Imperial Cup sixth were all solid performances and another should be expected here. NEXIUS too should go well. His performance last time, albeit against lesser horses, was mightily impressive and Paul Townend catches the eyes as a jockey booking. The Saint Charles and Theinval are others to note, although horses younger than six have a poor record in this.
The Sefton Novices' Hurdle takes place at 4:40. ALPHA DES OBEAUX has been earmarked as a long term prospect and is therefore thought highly of by connections. This is why he missed Cheltenham and should be primed for this. His three-and-three quarter length second behind Douvan is top form, making it the closest a horse has ever gotten to the Supreme winner. Richard Johnson booked too, I cannot believe he's a double figured price in all honesty. OUR KAEMPFER may be outclassed here but has won his last two comfortably, beating the useful yet quirky Port Melon last time out. As for the front three in the market, I would say they'd all prefer soft ground. However, out of Minella Rocco, Roi Des Francs and VYTA DU ROC, the Neptune fourth is selected. Ran a better race than I expected that day and would have been closer if not for landing on his nose at the last. Has good ground form from early on in his British career albeit against poor opposition. Step up to three miles makes sense for a horse that looks a dour stayer. As already stated, Minella Rocco and Roi Des Francs need rain for me. Minella Rocco has won two races easily on soft and being by Shirocco, out of a mare who liked cut in the ground, it would suggest that it's what he wants. Roi Des Francs' best performances have come on softer surfaces so is opposed to. Everything that ran in the attritional Albert Bartlett who lines up today are opposed.
And finally, its a Grade 2 bumper. ARMCHAIR THEATRE has looked a smart sort in two Ludlow bumpers- chasing is likely to be his game. Henderson pair BRAIN POWER and BUVEUR D'AIR are also selected. The former won a Newcastle bumper for a relatively unknown trainer when well backed- it's interesting that he's been snapped up by Michael Buckley for Henderson. The latter ran a corker in a Listed bumper on British debut for a four year-old, travelling menacingly. He's fancied to reverse the form with Barters Hill, who may want it softer. Archive has a chance too although will probably do better over further in time. Belshill has questions to answer after his Cheltenham bumper run. Persian Delight looked smart on his debut but his price of 7/2 looks mightily short.
Enjoy your day and good luck. Grand National blog coming tomorrow
Happy Aintree Punting!
No comments:
Post a Comment