ROCK ON RUBY looks well capable of giving Harry Fry a quickfire Grade 1 double, following on from Bitofapuzzle's Fairyhouse victory on Sunday. He bypassed Cheltenham after working badly on the gallops, so you would hope that Fry would have him tuned up for this Aintree Hurdle nicely. His two Cheltenham wins this season saw him cast aside the Nicky Henderson pair of Vaniteux and Volnay De Thaix on separate occasions. These two re-oppose- he should have no problem in replicating that form.
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| Rock On Ruby (middle) coming second in this last year |
He will have more on his plate from Champion Hurdle second and fourth, Arctic Fire and Jezki. There's an argument that Arctic Fire was just passing tired up the Cheltenham hill when capturing the runner-up spot but I am inclined to disagree. He ran a very good race, albeit against horses who didn't quite fire. Jezki was one of these. I fancied him to run a big race but his jumping was a little sloppy in places and he ultimately found little when asked by McCoy. He disappointed me and it did make me think that last years success in that race may have been somewhat of a fluke. Out of the two, Arctic Fire would be the selection but I think Rock On Ruby can beat them both.
Blue Heron is the final horse in the line-up. His Kingwell win was solid but he'll have to step up again on that if he is to stop Rock On Ruby improving a place on last year's second place behind The New One.
You would think that SILVINIACO CONTI would have a big chance in the Betfred Bowl. His third loss in the Cheltenham Gold Cup was his most disappointing performance of them all. He was beaten along way out that day, suggesting that Cheltenham really isn't his for him. However, on flat tracks, he is a totally different proposition. He notched up his second King George in as many years in December and he will be looking to do the same in this. He wasn't knocked about when beaten in the Cheltenham showpiece and although Holywell beat him in that race, he shouldn't be as short in comparison given not many horses got into it at all, thanks largely to Coneygree's front running, submission tactics. Smad Place also ran in the Gold Cup but I'm not sure he's quite good enough to rival the top two.
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| Silviniaco Conti (red) winning this last year |
As for the rest, Ma Filleule has been knocking on the door in top races this season but will probably find at least one too good again (plus Nicky Henderson's form in chase races is a worry). Menorah ran well at the start of the season, with a win in the Charlie Hall and a second behind Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair at Haydock. However, his run in the King George was poor and you have to remember that the Hobbs stable was flying earlier this year. The blistering form from then hasn't continued throughout the season; in fact it's waned quite a bit lately and, as a result, may not be good enough. Although he is a smart horse on a going day and cannot be discredited. Vukovar and Ballynagour both come here after absences- the former has stamina and class doubts whilst Ballynagour will either run well or poor, he's just too hard to predict.
The Grade 1 actions starts in the Manifesto Novices' Chase. Recent winners of this all ran at Cheltenham, so on that basis, Cash And Go and Val De Law can be discounted. The other four in the line-up all ran in the Arkle, where the field were decimated by Un De Sceaux. It may be wise to ignore that form given hardly any of the horses who ran really had a say. I still have my doubts regarding Josses Hill over fences. He's not the smoothest jumper and looks a little ungamely at times, not to mention Henderson's woeful chase form. Vibrato Valtat is a class horse but he appears to need softer ground to be at his very best, which he will not get. CLARCAM may be the horse, at the prices, to back. His performances prior to Cheltenham included a second behind Un De Sceaux, where he beat Ryanair Gold Cup winner Gilgamboa and a Grade 1 win at Leopardstown over Christmas (aided massively by Vautour's hatred of heavy ground). Although the record of five year olds in big novice chases is a worry, he may be good enough to win this. Ruby Walsh is an eye-catching jockey booking. Three Kingdoms lines up as well, but he too will need a drop of rain to be at his best.
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| Clarcam |
The 4 Year Old Juvenile Hurdle should head the way of Hargam, based on his superb third place in the Triumph Hurdle. At the prices however, second place in the Fred Winter BOUVREUIL could run a big race, with the good ground hopefully eking out improvement in him. And at 40/1, WINNER MASSAGOT rates great each-way value. His last five runners in this have seen him notch up four winners and a second. It shows that he likes to run decent types in this and bearing in mind he could have ran Triumph Hurdle also rans Karezak and Pain Au Chocolat in this, it suggests that they may think Winner Massagot has improved a great deal since his wind-op.
All Yours also has a chance but may want some more rain, as will Bristol De Mai, who has disappointed this season since running away with the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow on his British debut. Devilment was fourth in the Triumph but it was his first really tough race, creating question marks about how much it has taken out of him. The rest don't look up to challenging the likes of Hargam.
The first race of the week ran over the National course is the Foxhunters. The most recent winners of this have all been aged in double figures, apart from Silver Adonis at 50/1. WARNE has to be respected in his quest to win this two years running. He slammed the field in this twelve months ago, jumping the fences with aplomb. He goes again for Sam Waley-Cohen, whose record over these fences is second to none.
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| Warne on his way to victory in this last year |
Veteran BIG FELLA THANKS has placed twice over these fences and his most recent form cannot be questioned, with an agonising second place behind Annacotty at Cheltenham before a routine win in a hunter chase. Derek O'Connor is a good booking for a horse with a big chance.
Big Fella Thanks beat NEVEROWNUP in that hunter chase at Wincanton. He'll prefer the better ground and can hopefully give connections a nice spin, who include Dr. Richard Newland. He'll be looking for this horse to run well ahead of Pineau De Re and Royale Knight's runs in Saturday's big race.
Out of the rest, Cheltenham's Foxhunter winner On The Fringe will no doubt run well but the lack of rain could be a slight worry. Last Time D'albain has smart form also but will need juice in the ground whilst Major Malarkey has a chance on his old form although he may need further.
The Red Rum Handicap Chase sees many of the horses that ran in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. Out of those, TED VEALE and DRESDEN are selected. The former was seventh whilst the latter fell when in the process of running a big race. Both are chosen because they'll like the ground. The final selection in this is PARSNIP PETE, who is two from two at the course and will also relish the return to a better surface. Next Sensation, Karinga Dancer and Arnaud may be the best of the rest.
And to conclude this day of top racing, it's the Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Hurdle. Cheltenham's Pertemps winner CALL THE COPS looks well capable of following up here. He's looked a classy stayer on good ground this year and will probably be looking at bigger races next season. DAWALAN ran no sort of a race in the same race but a chance is taken on him again with Daryl Jacob back in the saddle, a jockey who he has struck up quite the relationship with of late. ULZANA'S RAID won two Cheltenham races well before coming unstuck there on New Years Day. He's had a lengthy break since and will hopefully be nicely tuned up for this. First time cheekpieces worn too. Unique De Cotte, Bear's Affair and Katgary are the best of the remainder.
Enjoy and good luck
Happy Aintree Punting!
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