As the title suggests, some of my tips have an Australian theme to them. Most obvious horse that would spring to mind is AUSTRALIA, but I also like an old favourite of mine, SIZING AUSTRALIA, to run a big race.
Firstly Australia in the 2000 Guineas. A beautifully bred colt, being by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner, he may improve over further, most likely in the Derby itself. However, I've fancied him for the Derby for a long time but the price now doesn't appeal to me. Today may be the only day that he can be backed at a reasonable price this season, so to me he had to be picked. His trainer thinks a lot of him, building him up to be the best he's ever trained. That hype may be a little "pie in the sky", as he's said that about other horses he's trained previously, but if he can live up to that, he has a massive chance. Camelot did the double, as did Sea The Stars; if he wins this, he'll be stupendously good.
And Sizing Australia in Punchestown's 2:30. One of my favourite horses in training, as he was my first winner at the Cheltenham Festival. The field doesn't look overly strong today, Be Positive only ran 4 days ago which is a worry and Star Neuville would appear to want softer ground than this. Age isn't on his side, but he's reliable and will like the ground. He always puts in a bold showing, hopefully this legend will come back safely.
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| Australia |
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| Sizing Australia (right) |
A couple more I like in the Guineas are WAR COMMAND, who won the Coventry and the Dewhurst as a 2 year old, will love the firm ground and has a great jockey on board in Ryan Moore and CHARM SPIRIT, who again will love the ground, representing a trainer who is bullish about his chances. 25/1 is far too big for a horse who won the Prix Djebel, the same race won by Makfi before Guineas glory in 2010. Spanish raider Noohzoh Canarias is the main danger in my opinion.
Another horse who should run a good race at Punchestown is GUITAR PETE, in the 4:20. Tiger Roll probalby should win in truth, but at the prices, Guitar Pete is the one that catches the eye the most. He'll love the ground and is in good heart, as shown by his victory at Aintree under a masterful ride by Paul Carberry. You could argue that he could reverse the Cheltenham form with Tiger Roll, as it was the second time Guitar Pete got beat at the course, suggesting he maybe wasn't at one with Prestbury Park's daunting hill. Abbyssial may prove to be a danger too.
In the 2:05 at Newmarket, I'm keen on ROCK CHOIR. He seems to have a lot in his favour in this whereas other's havent. For instance, Bold Sniper may need the run given his trainer's record with horse's first time out.
In the 2:40 at Newmarket, SOLE POWER will love the ground, Ryan Moore rides and his rivals Pearl Secret and Hot Streak would appear to be better on a surface with more give in it.
In Newmarket's 5:00, MUTAKAYYEF has a massive chance. He's been mentioned as a horse who could have a decent season, finishing a solid second on his only start at 2 before another second on his re-appearance. He'll be sharper for that run and will appreciate the step up in trip and the firmer ground. Big chance.
Kentucky Derby tips to follow later...
Although it pains me to say it (being an Aston Villa fan), congratulations to Birmingham City for staying up, they usually find a way to battle out of trouble. Credit where credit is due following a torrid season.
Have a good Bank Holiday Weekend.
Happy Punting!
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