WICKED A STRONG DERBY HOPE

The race that is billed as being the "Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sport" takes place this evening. That race is the Kentucky Derby. Now I don't profess to being an expert in American racing (my only winner across the Atlantic being Fort Larned in the 2012 Breeder's Cup Classic), but I've had a look at previous renewals and a lot of the horses meet this criteria.

KENTUCKY DERBY CRITERIA

• Won at 9 Furlongs
• Last race no further back than March
• Group race victory
• High draw (which is unusual, as you'd think a lower draw would be preferable)
• Horse has won it's last race

From what I'm aware of, most horses in the field suit the first three points mentioned. However, not many of them suit the last two. One that does is WICKED STRONG. He won the Wood Memorial Stakes cosily last time out. He needed to be cajoled along a little early on in the straight but once he hit top gear he flew home and scored impressively. The 10 furlong trip should pose no problems and he would seem to have a good chance.

Wicked Strong

Another horse who put in a top performance last time out was DANCE WITH FATE. He won the Blue Glass Stakes at Keeneland that day and is another who shouldn't be fazed by today's distance. 18/1 about this horse seems very generous, he should be there or thereabouts.

Dance With Fate

The main danger in my opinion is Chitu, who won the Sunland Derby last time out. The worry with him is that he seems more of a slogger than a stylish horse, that's what his his last run suggests anyway. To me, if he entered the straight in the lead, as game as he is, chances are that he may be overtaken a horse with more tactical speed towards the end, perhaps either of my selections.

As for the favourite, California Chrome, 2/1 appears far too short given it's a twenty runner race that will no doubt be a messy affair. He may prove to be the best horse in the race but he's not for me at the price.

Good luck to everybody

Happy Punting Y'All!