The Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle (3:35) does not look as enthralling as it had the potential to be, with the likes of Beat That and At Fishers Cross not turning up. Both of the market principals look vulnerable in my opinion. Firstly, there's Saphir Du Rheu, who runs here after an up and down campaign over fences. It looked as though the novice chasing world was his oyster when he bolted up at Exeter but his most recent run saw him fall in the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day, where he appeared to be struggling before his early exit, never travelling with any zeal. I'm not the biggest fan of horses that revert to hurdles after sketchy chase campaigns and despite there being some high profile exceptions, he is far too short at 6/4 for me, given he needs to have that put his mediocre last run firmly behind him.
Next there is Un Temps Pour Tout. Trainer David Pipe has reported him to have improved plenty over the summer but you would have reservations about him being victorious on his seasonal reappearance. There could also be question marks as to whether his form is good enough; his seven-length third behind Deep Trouble does not really put him into the mix here.
A horse with far stronger form is REVE DE SIVOLA. Claims that he wasn't the horse he once was were quashed when showing a tenacious quality to beat Zarkandar in the Long Walk Hurdle. Admittedly, his form can be inconsistent but that Ascot run is the best recent hurdles performance on offer here and has to put him into the reckoning.
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| Reve De Sivola tasting victory in this two years ago |
The victory of COLE HARDEN ahead of Medinas and At Fishers Cross at Wetherby could be criticised, as both horses he beat that day needed the run. However, his third behind Rock On Ruby and Vaniteux looks rock solid and definitely makes him a contender here.
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| Cole Harden |
Olofi and The Druids Nephew, although smart on their day, look a little out of their depth here.
There's a slight worry that my two selections will chop each others heads off by trying to get an easy lead but I'm confident that, if one of them can dictate proceedings, they have a big chance.
The BetBright Chase (1:50) has been dominated by 9 and 10 year olds in recent years, whilst horses carrying the maximum 11-10 have struggled. The two selections for this fit one of those criteria each. SMAD PLACE could make his weight of 11-2 count, providing he comes on for his Hennessy run. But with the likes of Djakadam and Unioniste winning on their next run after that race, there seems to be no reason why Alan King's grey cannot do the same. Last year's winner, 10 year-old THE GIANT BOLSTER, has a big chance here based on his Cheltenham form. He rarely runs a bad race here and you'd be surprised if he wasn't in the thick of things again.
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| Smad Place |
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| The Giant Bolster |
Dynaste clearly has a chance and is deserving favourite; his Cheltenham festival target hasn't quite been finalised yet. Many Clouds beat Smad Place in the Hennessy but he had the benefit of having his seasonal reappearance that day so there is a strong possibility that the form could be reversed. Black Thunder would need a career best here as would Theatre Guide, but slight preference would be for the latter from that pair.
The Grade 3 handicap chase at 2:25 should see LITTLE JON go close, providing he can complete the race. Twice this season he has been in the process of running a big race here but he's found some way to unship his jockey, if he can keep Sam Twiston Davies aboard, he could be capable of taking advantage of his nice weight. SEW ON TARGET has always promised a win at Prestbury Park and he didn't disappoint, scoring nicely on his latest run. A similar run will see him there or thereabouts at the finish.
The opening race is a Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle trial (12:40). Whereas some races on this card aren't proper "trial" races for the Festival, this one certainly is. It features plenty of horses that have a chance in the opening race on Gold Cup day, including favourite Peace And Co. He's definitely looked like the best juvenile around but he cannot be backed at 1/2. It's not even as if he is up against trees; BIVOUAC brings strong form to the table with his two English wins, including when defying a big penalty at Kempton whilst IBIS DU RHEU represents top connections in Nicholls and Hales and warrants a degree of respect on his debut in this country. Karezak has never ran a bad race over hurdles, with seconds behind Hargam and Bristol De Mai. Zarib won nicely on his hurdles debut and even Storm Force Ten is no slouch based on his narrow second behind main selection Bivouac. It's safe to say that the winner of this will be in warm order for the Triumph.
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| Bivouac |
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| Ibis Du Rheu |
Many people, including myself, will be surprised if Value At Risk gets turned over in the Grade Novices Hurdle at 3:00. However, 6/4 doesn't interest me for this, he may be of more interest come the Albert Bartlett. But don't get me wrong, this is far from a walkover. ROBINSFIRTH looked a dour stayer behind Thomas Brown on New Years Day and could give Dan Skelton's favourite something to consider.
The day concludes with a Class 2 handicap hurdle (4:10). There are question marks against plenty of these. For example, Royal Irish Hussar and Diamond King are having their seasonal reappearances whilst Dell' Arca has looked out of sorts in his runs this season. In recent renewals of this, the highest weight a horse carried to win equated to an official rating of 130, so it could pay to side with horses at the bottom of the handicap. One whose form you cannot question is LIGHTENTERTAINMENT, who has to cope with a step up in trip but has held all before him this season and it will take a good horse to stop him winning his fifth race in six outings.
Happy Cheltenham Punting!
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