Sunday 25 January 2015

THYME FOR ANOTHER ELLIOTT BUMPER WIN

Now, I'm well aware that there are bigger races at Leopardstown tomorrow than their concluding bumper but the top races tomorrow ought to be won by short priced horses, which as you probably know by now, is not what I'm about. The shorties in those races will be opposed but not with masses of confidence so instead, I'm leading with a horse that looks to have a big chance.

Last week, I commented on how many bumpers seemed to be battles between Messrs Mullins and Elliott. Because of Mullins' record in races of this nature, other trainers horses including Elliott's, can find their prices a little underpriced. Today seems to be no exception as the unraced Fugi Mountain (4/5) goes up against ROBIN THYME (6/1), who ran a respectable third on his debut behind Champion Bumper candidate Up For Review. He travelled well for a long way then; providing he comes on for the run, he should be able to follow in the footsteps of recent bumper winners for the yard which include Jetstream Jack, Tombstone and Myztique (all of whom beat fancied Mullins runners).

Can Gordon Elliott continue his good form in bumpers?
One of the aforementioned hotpots running is Arkle fancy Un De Sceaux. He participates in the Irish equivalent today (1:40) and should prove tough to beat. He's unbeaten barring a fall on his chase debut, where had the race at his mercy. That could be the only chink in his armour but if his sloppy jumping in places was to play a role, his adversaries looks sure to capitalise on it. Neither Gilgamboa nor CLARCAM are slouches. The former hosed up in a Grade 2 chase at Limerick on his latest start whilst the latter beat the mighty Vautour by 17 lengths (thanks largely to some bad jumping and heavy ground). It was still a brilliant run, however, and his 5 year-old weight allowance of 10 pounds will help him be competitive.

It's Hurricane Fly vs Jezki: Part VII at 2:45 in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Out of the two, preference would be for the 21-time Grade 1 winner. There should be no reason why the reigning Champion Hurdler will reverse the Christmas course and distance form; his time looks more likely to come at Cheltenham as he looks to hold on to his crown. However, purely at the prices, they'll be opposed with the horse who finished third behind them both in that Ryanair Hurdle, ARCTIC FIRE. He was a fast finisher that day and it appeared as though, if only for a brief moment, that he was about to reel in the famous duo. That run surprised many and made plenty take notice of him. In truth, today probably won't be his day but he'll have a big day sometime.

The Grade 2 Novices Hurdle at 3:15 looks a tasty affair, with No More Heroes being a worthy favourite. He puts his Albert Bartlett credentials on the line today but there's the small matter of today to get over too. WINDSOR PARK looked classy on his hurdles debut, staying on well at the finish. Master trainer Dermot Weld will have him nicely tuned up for this and will definitely give Gordon Elliott's horse plenty to think about. OUTLANDER could also run a big race. His form over two miles was solid; his first run over 3 miles last time out suggested that it was not quite his distance. He was outstayed by Martello Tower, who re-opposes today, however that horse may want further than today's 2m 4f trip. On the other hand, Outlander should relish the 4 furlongs less and could be capable of giving a good account of himself. Killultagh Vic rates the main danger- he looked a useful prospect and was not disgraced behind Supreme Novices Hurdle fancy L'Ami Serge. The only horse to have won this race in recent years carrying the biggest weight in the race was Boston Bob. But he was unbeaten up until that point, a Grade 1 winner, a 9/4 favourite who ended up finishing 2nd in the Albert Bartlett as a 6/5 favourite. Let's get this straight, No More Heroes would be a serious horse were he to win this.


Over at Sedgefield, point-to-point winner KILAS GIRL is taken to beat Aqalim (1:25), who he receives the best part of a stone off. John Ferguson's runner clearly has the best form on offer but John Quinn's inmate could be anything. Jason Maguire looks an eye-catching booking; bearing in mind his 30% strike rate at the course.


Enjoy your Sunday (or at least try to enjoy it if you're an Aston Villa fan, as we're not going to be in the FA Cup at 5 o'clock this evening. Bournemouth rate superb value at around 2/1 in my opinion. They can score, we cannot. Simple.)


Happy Punting!

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